Introduction: Access to public healthcare is limited in Brazilian underserved areas, and long waiting lists remain for echocardiography (echo). We aimed to develop a tool to optimize indications and shorten waiting lists for standard echo in primary care. Methods: Patients in waiting list for standard echo were enrolled. For derivation, patients underwent a clinical questionnaire, simplified 7-view echo screening by non-physicians with handheld devices (GE-VSCAN), and standard echo (Vivid-Q) by experts. Two models were adjusted, one including clinical variables and other adding screen-detected major heart disease (HD). For validation, patients were risk-classified according to the clinical score. High-risk patients and a sample of low-risk underwent standard echo. Intermediate-risk patients first had screening echo, with a complete study if HD was suspected. Discrimination and calibration of the 2 models were assessed to predict HD in standard echo. Results: In derivation (N=603), clinical variables associated with HD were female gender, body mass index, Chagas disease, prior cardiac surgery, coronary disease, valve disease, hypertension, and heart failure, and this model was well calibrated with C-statistic=0.781. Performance was improved with the addition of echo screening, with C-statistic=0.871 after cross-validation. For validation (N=1,526), 227 (14.9%) patients were classified as low-risk, 1082 (70.9%) as intermediate-risk, and 217 (14.2%) as high-risk by the clinical model. The final model with 2 categories had high sensitivity (99%) and negative predictive value (97%) for HD in standard echo. Model performance was good with C-statistic=0.720. Conclusion: The addition of screening echo to clinical variables significantly improves the performance of a score to predict major HD.
Background The natural history of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) detected by echocardiography remains unclear. We aimed to assess the accuracy of a simplified score based on the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria in predicting mid‐term RHD echocardiography outcomes in children from 4 different countries. Methods and Results Patient‐level baseline and follow‐up data of children with latent RHD from 4 countries (Australia, n=62; Brazil, n=197; Malawi, n=40; New Zealand, n=94) were combined. A simplified echocardiographic scoring system previously developed from Brazilian and Ugandan cohorts, consisting of 5 point‐based variables with respective weights, was applied: mitral valveanterior leaflet thickening (weight=3), excessive leaflet tip motion (3), regurgitation jet length ≥2 cm (6), aortic valve focal thickening (4), and any regurgitation (5). Unfavorable outcome was defined as worsening diagnostic category, persistent definite RHD or development/worsening of valve regurgitation/stenosis. The score model was updated using methods for recalibration. 393 patients (314 borderline, 79 definite RHD) with median follow‐up of 36 (interquartile range, 25–48) months were included. Median age was 14 (interquartile range, 11–16) years and secondary prophylaxis was prescribed to 16%. The echocardiographic score model applied to this external population showed significant association with unfavorable outcome (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04–1.16; P =0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤5 points), intermediate (6–9), and high‐risk (≥10) children at 3‐year follow‐up were 14.3%, 20.8%, and 38.5% respectively ( P <0.001). The updated score model showed good performance in predicting unfavorable outcome. Conclusions The echocardiographic score model for predicting RHD outcome was updated and validated for different latent RHD populations. It has potential utility in the clinical and screening setting for risk stratification of latent RHD.
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