Introduction: Deforestation significantly impacts large carnivores that depend on large tracts of interconnected forest habitat and that are sensitive to human activities. Understanding the relationship between habitat use and spatial distribution of such species across human modified landscapes is critical when planning effective conservation strategies. This study assessed the presence of potential landscape connectivity thresholds resulting from habitat fragmentation associated with different deforestation patterns using a scale-based approach that links species-specific home ranges with the extent of anthropogenic activities. The objectives were (1) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of natural vegetation for five common deforestation patterns and (2) to evaluate the connectivity associated with these patterns and the existence of potential thresholds affecting jaguar dispersal. The Bolivian lowlands, located within jaguar conservation units, were analysed with landscape metrics to capture the spatial and temporal changes within deforested areas and to determine potential impact on jaguar connectivity and connectivity thresholds for dispersal. Results: Over the period of 1976-2005, the amount of natural vegetation has decreased by more than 40% in all locations with the biggest changes occurring between 1991 and 2000. Landscape spatial structure around jaguar locations showed that jaguars used areas with mean proportion of natural areas = 83.14% (SE = 3.72%), mean patch density = 1.16 patches/100 ha (SE = 0.28 patches/100 ha), mean patch area = 616.95 ha (SE = 172.89 ha) and mean edge density = 705.27 m/ha (SE = 182.19 m/ha).We observed strong fragmentation processes in all study locations, which has resulted in the connectivity of jaguar habitat decreasing to <20% by 2005. A connectivity threshold zone was observed when the proportion of natural vegetation was less than 58.4% (SE = 1.3). Conclusions: Assessing fragmentation and connectivity for carnivores within the extent of human-modified landscapes proved to be an effective way to understand the changes caused by deforestation and their potential effects on large carnivore habitats. Our study highlights the importance of scale-based approaches for assessing current conservation challenges to protect large carnivores.

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