Over the past two decades, mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has accelerated and contributed to global sea level rise. This has been partly attributed to dynamic changes in marine terminating outlet glaciers. Outlet glaciers at the northern margin of the ice sheet drain 40% of its area but are comparatively less well-studied than elsewhere on the ice sheet (e.g., central-west or south-east). In order to improve our understanding of this region of the GrIS, this paper synthesizes previously-published research on 21 major marine terminating outlet glaciers. Over the last 130 years, there has been a clear pattern of glacier retreat, particularly over the last two decades. This was accompanied by velocity increases on the majority of glaciers for which records exist. Despite a distinct signal of retreat, however, there is clear variability within the region, which has complicated efforts to determine the precise drivers of recent changes, such as changes in ice tongue buttressing, atmospheric and/or oceanic warming, in addition to the possibility of glacier surging. Thus, there is an important need for further work to ascertain the precise drivers of glacier change, which is likely to require datasets on recent changes in the ocean-climate system (particularly sub-surface ocean temperatures) and numerical modeling of glacier sensitivity to these various forcings. Objective identification of surge-type glaciers is also required. Given that Northern Greenland is predicted to undergo greater warming due to Arctic Amplification during the twenty-first century, we conclude that the region has the potential to become an increasingly important source of mass loss.

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass in response to recent climatic and oceanic warming. Since the mid-1990s, tidewater outlet glaciers across the ice sheet have thinned, retreated, and accelerated, but recent changes in northern Greenland have been comparatively understudied. Consequently, the dynamic response (i.e. changes in surface elevation and velocity) of these outlet glaciers to changes at their termini, particularly calving from floating ice tongues, is poorly constrained. Here we use satellite imagery and historical maps to produce an unprecedented 68-year record of terminus change across 18 major outlet glaciers and combine this with previously published surface elevation and velocity datasets. Overall, recent (1995–2015) retreat rates were higher than at any time in the previous 47 years (since 1948). Despite increased retreat rates from the 1990s, there was distinct variability in dynamic glacier behaviour depending on whether the terminus was grounded or floating. Grounded glaciers accelerated and thinned in response to retreat over the last 2 decades, while most glaciers terminating in ice tongues appeared dynamically insensitive to recent ice tongue retreat and/or total collapse. We also identify glacier geometry (e.g. fjord width, basal topography, and ice tongue confinement) as an important influence on the dynamic adjustment of glaciers to changes at their termini. Recent grounded outlet glacier retreat and ice tongue loss across northern Greenland suggest that the region is undergoing rapid change and could soon contribute substantially to sea level rise via the loss of grounded ice.

Abstract. Dynamic ice discharge from outlet glaciers across the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased since the beginning of the 21st century. Calving from floating ice tongues that buttress these outlets can accelerate ice flow and discharge of grounded ice. However, little is known about the dynamic impact of ice tongue loss in Greenland compared to ice shelf collapse in Antarctica. The rapidly flowing (∼1000 m a−1) Petermann Glacier in northwest Greenland has one of the ice sheet's last remaining ice tongues, but it lost ∼50 %–60 % (∼40 km in length) of this tongue via two large calving events in 2010 and 2012. The glacier showed a limited velocity response to these calving events, but it is unclear how sensitive it is to future ice tongue loss. Here, we use an ice flow model (Úa) to assess the instantaneous velocity response of Petermann Glacier to past and future calving events. Our results confirm that the glacier was dynamically insensitive to large calving events in 2010 and 2012 (<10 % annual acceleration). We then simulate the future loss of similarly sized sections to the 2012 calving event (∼8 km long) of the ice tongue back to the grounding line. We conclude that thin, soft sections of the ice tongue >12 km away from the grounding line provide little frontal buttressing, and removing them is unlikely to significantly increase ice velocity or discharge. However, once calving removes ice within 12 km of the grounding line, loss of these thicker and stiffer sections of ice tongue could perturb stresses at the grounding line enough to substantially increase inland flow speeds (∼900 m a−1), grounded ice discharge, and Petermann Glacier's contribution to global sea level rise.

Ice shelves restrain flow from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Climate-ocean warming could force thinning or collapse of floating ice shelves and subsequently accelerate flow, increase ice discharge and raise global mean sea levels. Petermann Glacier (PG), northwest Greenland, recently lost large sections of its ice shelf, but its response to total ice shelf loss in the future remains uncertain. Here, we use the ice flow model Úa to assess the sensitivity of PG to changes in ice shelf extent, and to estimate the resultant loss of grounded ice and contribution to sea level rise. Our results have shown that under several scenarios of ice shelf thinning and retreat, removal of the shelf will not contribute substantially to global mean sea level (<1 mm). We hypothesize that grounded ice loss was limited by the stabilization of the grounding line at a topographic high ~12 km inland of its current grounding line position. Further inland, the likelihood of a narrow fjord that slopes seawards suggests that PG is likely to remain insensitive to terminus changes in the near future.

Abstract. The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of future changes in global mean sea level (ΔGMSL). Mass loss is currently concentrated in regions of warm circumpolar deep water, but it is unclear how ice shelves currently surrounded by relatively cold ocean waters will respond to climatic changes in the future. Studies suggest that warm water could flush the Filchner–Ronne (FR) ice shelf cavity during the 21st century, but the inland ice sheet response to a drastic increase in ice shelf melt rates is poorly known. Here, we use an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification approach to project the GMSL contribution of the FR basin under RCP emissions scenarios, and we assess the forward propagation and proportional contribution of uncertainties in model parameters (related to ice dynamics and atmospheric/oceanic forcing) on these projections. Our probabilistic projections, derived from an extensive sample of the parameter space using a surrogate model, reveal that the FR basin is unlikely to contribute positively to sea level rise by the 23rd century. This is primarily due to the mitigating effect of increased accumulation with warming, which is capable of suppressing ice loss associated with ocean-driven increases in sub-shelf melt. Mass gain (negative ΔGMSL) from the FR basin increases with warming, but uncertainties in these projections also become larger. In the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, ΔGMSL is likely to range from −103 to 26 mm, and this large spread can be apportioned predominantly to uncertainties in parameters driving increases in precipitation (30 %) and sub-shelf melting (44 %). There is potential, within the bounds of our input parameter space, for major collapse and retreat of ice streams feeding the FR ice shelf, and a substantial positive contribution to GMSL (up to approx. 300 mm), but we consider such a scenario to be very unlikely. Adopting uncertainty quantification techniques in future studies will help to provide robust estimates of potential sea level rise and further identify target areas for constraining projections.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass in response to recent climatic and oceanic warming. Since the mid-1990s, marine-terminating outlet glaciers across the GrIS have retreated, accelerated and thinned, but recent changes in northern 10Greenland have been comparatively understudied. Consequently, the dynamic response (i.e. changes in surface elevation and velocity) of these outlet glaciers to changes at their termini, particularly calving from floating ice tongues, remains unknown.Here we use satellite imagery and historical maps to produce an unprecedented 68-year record of terminus change across 18 major outlet glaciers and combine this with previously published surface elevation and velocity datasets. Overall, recent (1995Overall, recent ( -2015 retreat rates were higher than at any time in the previous 47 years, but change-point analysis reveals three categories of 15 frontal position change: (i) minimal change followed by steady and continuous retreat, (ii) minimal change followed by a switch to a period of short-lived rapid retreat, (iii) glaciers that underwent cycles of advance and retreat. Furthermore, these categories appear to be linked to the terminus type, with those in category (i) having grounded termini and those in category (ii) characterised by floating ice tongues. We interpret glaciers in category (iii) as surge-type. Glacier geometry (e.g. fjord width and basal topography) is also an important influence on the dynamic re-adjustment of glaciers to changes at their termini. 20Taken together, the loss of several ice tongues and the recent acceleration in the retreat of numerous marine-terminating glaciers suggests northern Greenland is undergoing rapid change and could soon impact on some large catchments that have capacity to contribute an important component to sea level rise.

Abstract. Marine-terminating outlet glacier terminus traces, mapped from satellite and aerial imagery, have been used extensively in understanding how outlet glaciers adjust to climate change variability over a range of time scales. Numerous studies have digitized termini manually, but this process is labor-intensive, and no consistent approach exists. A lack of coordination leads to duplication of efforts, particularly for Greenland, which is a major scientific research focus. At the same time, machine learning techniques are rapidly making progress in their ability to automate accurate extraction of glacier termini, with promising developments across a number of optical and SAR satellite sensors. These techniques rely on high quality, manually digitized terminus traces to be used as training data for robust automatic traces. Here we present a database of manually digitized terminus traces for machine learning and scientific applications. These data have been collected, cleaned, assigned with appropriate metadata including image scenes, and compiled so they can be easily accessed by scientists. The TermPicks data set includes 39,060 individual terminus traces for 278 glaciers with a mean and median number of traces per glacier of 136 ± 190 and 93, respectively. Across all glaciers, 32,567 dates have been picked, of which 4,467 have traces from more than one author (duplication of 14 %). We find a median error of ∼100 m among manually-traced termini. Most traces are obtained after 1999, when Landsat 7 was launched. We also provide an overview of an updated version of The Google Earth Engine Digitization Tool (GEEDiT), which has been developed specifically for future manual picking of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Abstract. Marine-terminating outlet glacier terminus traces, mapped from satellite and aerial imagery, have been used extensively in understanding how outlet glaciers adjust to climate change variability over a range of timescales. Numerous studies have digitized termini manually, but this process is labor intensive, and no consistent approach exists. A lack of coordination leads to duplication of efforts, particularly for Greenland, which is a major scientific research focus. At the same time, machine learning techniques are rapidly making progress in their ability to automate accurate extraction of glacier termini, with promising developments across a number of optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite sensors. These techniques rely on high-quality, manually digitized terminus traces to be used as training data for robust automatic traces. Here we present a database of manually digitized terminus traces for machine learning and scientific applications. These data have been collected, cleaned, assigned with appropriate metadata including image scenes, and compiled so they can be easily accessed by scientists. The TermPicks data set includes 39 060 individual terminus traces for 278 glaciers with a mean of 136 ± 190 and median of 93 of traces per glacier. Across all glaciers, 32 567 dates have been digitized, of which 4467 have traces from more than one author, and there is a duplication rate of 17 %. We find a median error of ∼ 100 m among manually traced termini. Most traces are obtained after 1999, when Landsat 7 was launched. We also provide an overview of an updated version of the Google Earth Engine Digitization Tool (GEEDiT), which has been developed specifically for future manual picking of the Greenland Ice Sheet.