Quality conservation planning requires quality input data. However, the broad scale sampling strategies typically employed to obtain primary species distribution data are prone to geographic bias in the form of errors of omission. This study provides a quantitative measure of sampling bias to inform accuracy assessment of conservation plans based on the South African Frog Atlas Project. Significantly higher sampling intensity near to cities and roads is likely to result in overstated conservation priority and heightened conservation conflicts in urban areas. Particularly well sampled protected areas will also erroneously appear to contribute highly to amphibian biodiversity targets. Conversely, targeted sampling in the arid northwest and along mountain ranges is needed to ensure that these under-sampled regions are not excluded from conservation plans. The South African Frog Atlas Project offers a reasonably accurate picture of the broad scale west-to-east increase in amphibian richness and abundance, but geographic bias may limit its applicability for fine scale conservation planning. The Global Amphibian Assessment species distribution data offered a less biased alternative, but only at the cost of inflated commission error.

Aim Small range size often increases a species’ susceptibility to decline. A narrow ecological niche is one factor that may cause species to inhabit a small range. We investigated whether specialized niches have made South African amphibians more vulnerable to range contractions. Location South Africa. Methods The South African Frog Atlas Project is a comprehensive dataset that combines a recent biological survey with historical species distribution data. It provided an opportunity to quantitatively compare range sizes, niche breadth and range size changes for amphibian species. An ecological niche factor analysis supplied comparative measures of climate and habitat niche breadth for each species. Niche breadth was related to range size changes using linear regressions. Ranges of species with narrow habitat niches were spatially compared to areas of high land transformation. Results Small range size was a significant predictor of range contractions for South African amphibians (R2 = 0.35). Furthermore, species with narrow habitat (R2 = 0.25) and climate (R2 = 0.21) niches had experienced more severe range contractions than species with broader niches. Among only endemic species, climate specialization (R2 = 0.27) became a better predictor of range size change than habitat specialization (R2 = 0.21). Habitat specialists were concentrated within two areas of endemism that also had higher than average (P < 0.0001) levels of land transformation. Main conclusions Small range size increased species' likelihood of experiencing range contractions. Narrow niche breadth was also a significant predictor of range contractions, indicating that specialization may contribute to higher decline risk in small‐range species. The role of climate specialization in predicting range contractions among endemics emphasizes the potential impacts of climate change. The spatial synchrony of contracting habitat specialists in highly transformed areas of endemism suggests that conservation efforts should target specialist species and the ecosystems where many such species occur.

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Systematic conservation planning is intended to inform spatially explicit decision making. Doing so requires that it be integrated into complex regulatory and governance processes, and there are limited instances where this has been achieved effectively. South Africa is a global leader in the application of conservation plans, the outputs of which are widely used for spatial planning and decision making in many spheres of government. We aimed to determine how conservation planning in the country progressed from theory to implementation, and to identify practical actions that enabled this transition, by assessing temporal trends in the characteristics of conservation plans (1990–2017, n = 94). Since 2010 conservation planning has entered an operational period characterized by government leadership of plans, administrative rather than ecological planning domains, decreasing size of planning units, increasing emphasis on end‐user products, and scheduled revision of plans. Key actions that enabled this progression include transitioning leadership of plans from scientists to practitioners, building capacity within implementing agencies, creating opportunities to integrate plans in legislative processes, establishing a strong community of practice, adopting implementation‐focused methods, and balancing standardization with innovation. Learning from this model will allow other countries, particularly those with a similar megadiverse, developing context, to operationalize conservation planning into spatial planning and decision making.