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Aim Maps of species ranges are among the most frequently used distribution data in biodiversity studies. As with any biological data, range maps have some level of measurement error, but this error is rarely quantified. We assessed the error associated with amphibian range maps by comparing them with point locality data.Location Global. MethodsThe maps published by the Global Amphibian Assessment were assessed against two data sets of species point localities: the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and a refined data set including recently published, high-quality presence data from both GBIF and other sources. Range fit was measured as the proportion of presence records falling within the range polygon(s) for each species.Results Using the high-quality point data provided better fit measures than using the raw GBIF data. Range fit was highly variable among continents, being highest for North American and European species (a fit of 84-94%), and lowest for Asian and South American species (a fit of 57-64%). At the global scale, 95% of amphibian point records were inside the ranges published in maps, or within 31 km of the range edge. However, differences among continents were striking, and more points were found far from range edges for South American and Asian species.Main conclusions The Global Amphibian Assessment range maps represent the known distribution of most amphibians well; this study provides measures of accuracy that can be useful for future research using amphibian maps as baseline data. Nevertheless, there is a need for greater investment in the continuous updating and improvement of maps, particularly in the megadiverse areas of tropical Asia and South America.

Aim Habitat loss and degradation are the factors threatening the largest number of amphibian species. However, quantitative measures of habitat availability only exist for a small subset of them. We evaluated the relationships between habitat availability, extinction risk and drivers of threat for the world's amphibians. We developed deductive habitat suitability models to estimate the extent of suitable habitat and the proportion of suitable habitat (PSH) inside the geographic range of each species, covering species and areas for which little or no high-resolution distribution data are available.Location Global.Methods We used information on habitat preferences to develop habitat suitability models at 300-m resolution, by integrating range maps with land cover and elevation. Model performance was assessed by comparing model output with point localities where species were recorded. We then used habitat availability as a surrogate of area of occupancy. Using the IUCN criteria, we identified species having narrow area of occupancy, for which extinction risk is likely underestimated. ResultsWe developed models for 5363 amphibians. Validation success of models was high (94%), being better for forest specialists and generalists than for open habitat specialists. Generalists had proportionally more habitat than forest or open habitat specialists. The PSH was lower for species having small geographical ranges, currently listed as threatened, and for which habitat loss is recognized as a threat. Differences in habitat availability among biogeographical realms were strong. We identified 61 forest species for which the extinction risk may be higher that currently assessed in the Red List, due to limited extent of suitable habitat.Main conclusions Habitat models can accurately predict amphibian distribution at fine scale and allow describing biogeographical patterns of habitat availability. The strong relationship between amount of suitable habitat and extinction threat may help the conservation assessment in species for which limited information is currently available.

Aim  Understanding the factors determining the transition from introduction of aliens to the establishment of invasive populations is a critical issue of the study of biological invasions, and has key implications for management. Differences in fitness among areas of introduction can define the zones where aliens become invasive. The American slider turtle Trachemys scripta has been introduced worldwide, and has negative effects on freshwater communities, but only a subset of introduced populations breed successfully. We used species distribution models to assess the factors influencing the slider distribution in Italy, by analysing bioclimatic features that can cause the transition from presence of feral adults to breeding populations. We also evaluated whether climate change might increase the future suitability for reproduction. Location   Central and Northern Italy. Methods   The distribution of slider turtle was obtained from the literature, unpublished reports and field surveys. We used Maxent to build bioclimatic models. Results   Reproductive populations are associated to a clear bioclimatic envelope with warmer climate, more solar radiation and higher precipitations than populations where reproduction is not observed. Several Mediterranean areas currently have climatic features suitable for sliders. Scenarios of climate change predict the expansion of these areas. In the near future (2020), the proportion of populations in areas suitable for reproduction will dramatically increase. Main conclusion   Our study shows that bioclimatic differences can determine the areas where aliens become invaders. Management should be focused to these source areas. However, climate change can increase fitness in the future, and therefore the interactions between climate change and fitness can boost the invasiveness of this alien species.

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana ( 5 Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used MAXENT to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Aim Ecogeographical variation of body size in vertebrates (e.g. Bergmann's rule) has long been recognized. However, the patterns and causes of intra-specific ecogeographical variation of body size in ectotherms, and in amphibians in particular, are strongly debated. We identified the relationship between bioclimatic variables and body size predicted a priori by alternative hypotheses (heat balance, endurance, seasonality, starvation resistance, water availability, primary productivity, parental investment) proposed to explain ecogeographical patterns of body size in ectotherms, and we evaluated the relative support of these hypotheses in explaining variation in body size of the Italian crested newt, Triturus carnifex.Location Twenty-three populations covering the whole range of T. carnifex (Austria, Croatia, Italy and Slovenia). MethodsWe obtained data on body size (snout-vent length, SVL) of 2639 adult newts from direct measurements and the literature; we obtained high-resolution environmental data for the sampled localities. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the support of the data for the different hypotheses. We also integrated information on population genetics in our models. ResultsWe observed strong geographical variation of body size. The best Akaike information criterion (AIC) models showed that populations with larger body size are associated with cold climates and secondarily with high primary productivity. Furthermore, sexual dimorphism increases in cold climates, as the increase in body size was stronger for females. When taking into account population genetics, we did not find support for relationships with the other variables. Main conclusionOur results are consistent with three hypotheses proposed to explain ecogeographical variation in amphibians: heat balance, increased parental investment of females and productivity. Information theory provides the framework for comparing hypotheses rather than looking for patterns. We suggest that evaluating the support for mechanisms can provide better insights than simply assessing whether ecogeographical variation is in agreement with some 'rule' .

Palabras Clave: bosque, caminos, composición del paisaje, estructura de la comunidad, humedales, metapoblación, Rana dalmatina, R. esculenta, Salamandra salamandra, zona de amortiguamiento ribereña

The extent to which closely related species share similar niches remains highly debated. Ecological niches are increasingly analysed by combining distribution records with broad-scale climatic variables, but interactions between species and their environment often occur at fine scales. The idea that macroscale analyses correctly represent fine-scale processes relies on the assumption that average climatic variables are meaningful predictors of processes determining species persistence, but tests of this hypothesis are scarce. We compared broad- and fine-scale (microhabitat) approaches by analyzing the niches of European plethodontid salamanders. Both the microhabitat and the macroecological approaches identified niche differences among species, but the correspondence between micro- and macroecological niches was weak. When exploring niche evolution, the macroecological approach suggested a close relationship between niche and phylogenetic history, but this relationship did not emerge in fine-scale analyses. The apparent pattern of niche evolution emerging in broad-scale analyses likely was the by-product of related species having closely adjacent ranges. The environment actually experienced by most of animals is more heterogeneous than what is apparent from macro-scale predictors, and a better combination between macroecological and fine-grained data may be a key to obtain robust ecological generalizations.