The risk of mortality associated with acute renal failure (ARF) after open-heart surgery continues to be distressingly high. Accurate prediction of ARF provides an opportunity to develop strategies for early diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical score to predict postoperative ARF by incorporating the effect of all of its major risk factors. A total of 33,217 patients underwent open-heart surgery at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation (1993 to 2002). The primary outcome was ARF that required dialysis. The scoring model was developed in a randomly selected test set (n = 15,838) and was validated on the remaining patients. Its predictive accuracy was compared by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The score ranges between 0 and 17 points. The ARF frequency at each score level in the validation set fell within the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the corresponding frequency in the test set. Four risk categories of increasing severity (scores 0 to 2, 3 to 5, 6 to 8, and 9 to 13) were formed arbitrarily. The frequency of ARF across these categories in the test set ranged between 0.5 and 22.1%. The score was also valid in predicting ARF across all risk categories. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score in the test set was 0.81 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.83) and was similar to that in the validation set (0.82; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.85; P = 0.39). In conclusion, a score is valid and accurate in predicting ARF after open-heart surgery; along with increasing its clinical utility, the score can help in planning future clinical trials of ARF.

Fluid accumulation is associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill patients. Here, we sought to determine if fluid accumulation is associated with mortality and non-recovery of kidney function in critically ill adults with acute kidney injury. Fluid overload was defined as more than a 10% increase in body weight relative to baseline, measured in 618 patients enrolled in a prospective multicenter observational study. Patients with fluid overload experienced significantly higher mortality within 60 days of enrollment. Among dialyzed patients, survivors had significantly lower fluid accumulation when dialysis was initiated compared to non-survivors after adjustments for dialysis modality and severity score. The adjusted odds ratio for death associated with fluid overload at dialysis initiation was 2.07. In non-dialyzed patients, survivors had significantly less fluid accumulation at the peak of their serum creatinine. Fluid overload at the time of diagnosis of acute kidney injury was not associated with recovery of kidney function. However, patients with fluid overload when their serum creatinine reached its peak were significantly less likely to recover kidney function. Our study shows that in patients with acute kidney injury, fluid overload was independently associated with mortality. Whether the fluid overload was the result of a more severe renal failure or it contributed to its cause will require clinical trials in which the role of fluid administration to such patients is directly tested.

There is a changing spectrum of ARF in the critically ill, characterized by a large burden of comorbid disease and extensive extrarenal complications, obligating the need for dialysis in the majority of patients. There is wide variation across institutions in patient characteristics and practice patterns. These differences highlight the need for additional multicenter observational and interventional studies in ARF.

Intensive renal support in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury did not decrease mortality, improve recovery of kidney function, or reduce the rate of nonrenal organ failure as compared with less-intensive therapy involving a defined dose of intermittent hemodialysis three times per week and continuous renal-replacement therapy at 20 ml per kilogram per hour. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00076219.)

There is evidence of ongoing SIRS with concomitant CARS in critically ill patients with ARF, with higher levels of plasma IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 in patients with ARF who die during hospitalization. Strategies to modulate inflammation must take into account the complex cytokine biology in patients with established ARF.