Peri-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection increases postoperative mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal duration of planned delay before surgery in patients who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection. This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study included patients undergoing elective or emergency surgery during October 2020. Surgical patients with pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection were compared with those without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality. Logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted 30-day mortality rates stratified by time from diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection to surgery. Among 140,231 patients (116 countries), 3127 patients (2.2%) had a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. Adjusted 30-day mortality in patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection was 1.5% (95%CI 1.4-1.5). In patients with a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, mortality was increased in patients having surgery within 0-2 weeks, 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks of the diagnosis (odds ratio (95%CI) 4.1 (3.3-4.8), 3.9 (2.6-5.1) and 3.6 (2.0-5.2), respectively). Surgery performed ≥ 7 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was associated with a similar mortality risk to baseline (odds ratio (95%CI) 1.5 (0.9-2.1)). After a ≥ 7 week delay in undertaking surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection, patients with ongoing symptoms had a higher mortality than patients whose symptoms had resolved or who had been asymptomatic (6.0% (95%CI 3.2-8.7) vs. 2.4% (95%CI 1.4-3.4) vs. 1.3% (95%CI 0.6-2.0), respectively). Where possible, surgery should be delayed for at least 7 weeks following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients with ongoing symptoms ≥ 7 weeks from diagnosis may benefit from further delay.

No abstract

Background Physical activity (PA) has previously been suggested to attenuate the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) conferred by excess body weight and weight gain. We prospectively examined the relationship between body size, weight change and level of PA in a biracial cohort of middle-aged men and women. Methods and Results Baseline characteristics on risk factor levels were obtained on 14,219 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. AF incidence was ascertained from 1987–2009. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate the associations between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), relative weight change, and PA level with incident AF. During follow-up, there were 1775 cases of incident AF. BMI and WC were positively associated with AF, as was weight loss/gain of >5% initial body weight. An ideal level of PA had a small protective effect on AF risk and partially attenuated the risk of AF associated with excess weight in men but not women: compared with men with a normal BMI, the risk of AF in obese men with an ideal, intermediate and poor level of PA at baseline was increased by 37%, 129% and 156% (Pinteraction=0.04). During follow-up, PA did not modify the association between weight gain and risk of AF. Conclusions Obesity and extreme weight change are risk factors for incident AF whereas being physically active is associated with a small reduction in risk. In men only, being physically active offset some, but not all, of the risk incurred with excess body weight.

B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

Purpose We studied incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the prospective community-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Reportedly, non-Hispanic blacks (NHBs) have a lower AF burden compared with their non-Hispanic white (NHW) counterparts. Information on the epidemiology of AF in Hispanic and Asian populations is much more limited. Methods We excluded participants with a history of AF at enrollment. A total of 6721 MESA participants were monitored for the first AF event ascertained according to hospital discharge International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates (IRs) of AF were calculated per 1000 person-years of observation. IR ratios were calculated using NHWs as the reference group. Age- and sex-adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) of established modifiable AF risk factors were ascertained. Results In the MESA cohort, 47.2% was male; at baseline, 25.7% had hypertension; 12.5% had diabetes. Three hundred five incident hospitalized AF events occurred over a mean follow-up of 7.3 years. Age- and sex-adjusted IRs and IR ratios showed that overall AF incidence was significantly lower among Hispanics, NHBs and Chinese compared with NHWs (all P < .001). Among participants 65 years of age or greater, Hispanics, Chinese, and blacks had significantly lower AF incidence than NHWs (all P ≥ 01), but IRs were similar among participants under age 65 years. The PAF for smoking was 27% among NHBs but lower among other race–ethnic groups. Among NHWs, the PAF for hypertension was 22.2%, but this was higher among NHBs (33.1%), Chinese (46.3%), and Hispanics (43.9%). Conclusions Overall, the incidence of hospitalized AF was significantly lower in Hispanics, NHBs, and Chinese than in NHWs. A larger proportion of AF events appear to be attributable to hypertension among nonwhite populations compared with NHWs.

Background It has recently been reported that atrial fibrillation [AF] is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction [MI]. However, the mechanism underlying this association is currently unknown. Further study of the relationship of AF with type of MI [ST elevation MI (STEMI) vs. non-ST elevation MI [NSTEMI] might shed light on the potential mechanisms. Methods and Results We examined the association between AF and incident MI in 14,462 participants [mean age 54 years, 56% women, 26% African Americans] from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study who were free of coronary heart disease at baseline [1987–1989] with follow-up through December 31, 2010. AF cases were identified from study visits electrocardiogram and by review of hospital discharge records. Incident MI and its types were ascertained by an independent adjudication committee. Over a median follow up of 21.6 years, 1374 MI events occurred [829 NSTEMI, 249 STEMI, 296 unclassifiable]. In a multivariable adjusted model, AF [n=1545] as a time-varying variable was associated with a 63% increased risk of MI [HR (95% CI):1.63(1.32–2.02)]. However, AF was associated with NSTEMI [HR (95% CI): 1.80(1.39–2.31)] but not STEMI [HR (95% CI): 0.49(0.18–1.34)]; p-value for hazard ratios comparison=0.004. Combining the unclassifiable MI group with either STEMI or NSTEMI did not change this conclusion. The association between AF and MI, total and NSTEMI, was stronger in women than in men [interaction p-value<0.01 for both]. Conclusions AF is associated with an increased risk of incident MI, especially in women. However, this association is limited to NSTEMI.

BackgroundCardiac troponin T is independently associated with cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Serum levels of high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-TnT) reflect subclinical myocardial injury in ambulatory patients. We sought to determine the distribution and predictors of hs-TnT in CKD patients without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD).MethodsWe studied 2464 participants within the multi-ethnic Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) who did not have self-reported CVD. We considered renal and non-renal factors as potential determinants of hs-TnT, including demographics, comorbidities, left ventricular (LV) mass, serologic factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albumin to creatinine ratio.ResultsHs-TnT was detectable in 81% of subjects, and the median (IQR) hs-TnT was 9.4 pg/ml (4.3-18.3). Analysis was performed using Tobit regression, adjusting for renal and non-renal factors. After adjustment, lower eGFR was associated with higher expected hs-TnT; participants with eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 had 3-fold higher expected hs-TnT compared to subjects with eGFR > 60. Older age, male gender, black race, LV mass, diabetes and higher blood pressure all had strong, independent associations with higher expected hs-TnT.ConclusionsKnowledge of the determinants of hs-TnT in this cohort may guide further research on the pathology of heart disease in patients with CKD and help to stratify sub-groups of CKD patients at higher cardiovascular risk.

BackgroundDyslipidemia is a major contributor to the development of atherosclerosis and coronary disease. Its role in the etiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) is uncertain.Methods and ResultsWe studied 7142 men and women from the Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Framingham Heart Study who did not have prevalent AF at baseline and were not on lipid‐lowering medications. Total cholesterol, high‐density lipoprotein and low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were measured using standard procedures. Incident AF during follow‐up was identified from hospital discharge codes; review of medical charts; study electrocardiograms; and, in MESA only, Medicare claims. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of AF by clinical categories of blood lipids in each cohort. Study‐specific results were meta‐analyzed using inverse of variance weighting. During 9.6 years of mean follow‐up, 480 AF cases were identified. In a combined analysis of multivariable‐adjusted results from both cohorts, high levels of high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with lower AF risk (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.87 in those with levels ≥60 mg/dL versus <40 mg/dL), whereas high triglycerides were associated with higher risk of AF (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.05 in those with levels ≥200 mg/dL versus <150 mg/dL). Total cholesterol and low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol were not associated with the risk of AF.ConclusionIn these 2 community‐based cohorts, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides but not low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol or total cholesterol were associated with the risk of AF, accounting for other cardiometabolic risk factors.