Extensive ice thickness surveys by NASA's Operation IceBridge enable over a decade of ice discharge measurements at high precision for the majority of Greenland's marine-terminating outlet glaciers, prompting a reassessment of the temporal and spatial distribution of glacier change. Annual measurements for 178 outlet glaciers reveal that, despite widespread acceleration, only 15 glaciers accounted for 77% of the 739 ± 29 Gt of ice lost due to acceleration since 2000 and four accounted for~50%. Among the top sources of loss are several glaciers that have received little scientific attention. The relative contribution of ice discharge to total loss decreased from 58% before 2005 to 32% between 2009 and 2012. As such, 84% of the increase in mass loss after 2009 was due to increased surface runoff. These observations support recent model projections that surface mass balance, rather than ice dynamics, will dominate the ice sheet's contribution to 21st century sea level rise.

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002-2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958-1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr −1 , respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid1990s was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990s, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small (< 3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from lowlying (< 2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater from occurring, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991-2015 average annual mass loss of ∼ 0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

The freshwater budget of the Arctic and sub‐polar North Atlantic Oceans has been changing due, primarily, to increased river runoff, declining sea ice and enhanced melting of Arctic land ice. Since the mid‐1990s this latter component has experienced a pronounced increase. We use a combination of satellite observations of glacier flow speed and regional climate modeling to reconstruct the land ice freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic glaciers and ice caps for the period 1958–2016. The cumulative freshwater flux anomaly exceeded 6,300 ± 316 km 3 by 2016. This is roughly twice the estimate of a previous analysis that did not include glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and which extended only to 2010. From 2010 onward, the total freshwater flux is about 1,300 km 3 /yr, equivalent to 0.04 Sv, which is roughly 40% of the estimated total runoff to the Arctic for the same time period. Not all of this flux will reach areas of deep convection or Arctic and Sub‐Arctic seas. We note, however, that the largest freshwater flux anomalies, grouped by ocean basin, are located in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. The land ice freshwater flux displays a strong seasonal cycle with summer time values typically around five times larger than the annual mean. This will be important for understanding the impact of these fluxes on fjord circulation, stratification, and the biogeochemistry of, and nutrient delivery to, coastal waters.

Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet have increased over the last two decades due to increases in liquid (i.e., surface and submarine meltwater) and solid ice (i.e., iceberg) fluxes. To predict potential ice sheet‐ocean‐climate feedbacks, we must know the partitioning of freshwater fluxes from Greenland, including the conversion of icebergs to liquid (i.e., meltwater) fluxes within glacial fjords. Here we use repeat ~0.5 m‐resolution satellite images from two major fjords to provide the first observation‐based estimates of the meltwater flux from the dense matrix of floating ice called mélange. We find that because of its expansive submerged area (>100 km2) and rapid melt rate (~0.1–0.8 m d−1), the ice mélange meltwater flux can exceed that from glacier surface and submarine melting. Our findings suggest that iceberg melt within the fjords must be taken into account in studies of glacial fjord circulation and the impact of Greenland melt on the ocean.