The Barents Sea is a subarctic shelf sea which has experienced major changes during the past decades. From ecological time-series, three different food-web configurations, reflecting successive shifts of dominance of pelagic fish, demersal fish, and zooplankton, as well as varying trophic control have been identified in the last decades. This covers a relatively short time-period as available ecological time-series are often relatively short. As we lack information for prior time-periods, we use a chance and necessity model to investigate if there are other possible configurations of the Barents Sea food-web than those observed in the ecological time-series, and if this food-web is characterized by a persistent trophic control. We perform food-web simulations using the Non-Deterministic Network Dynamic model (NDND) for the Barents Sea, identify food-web configurations and compare those to historical reconstructions of food-web dynamics. Biomass configurations fall into four major types and three trophic pathways. Reconstructed data match one of the major biomass configurations but is characterized by a different trophic pathway than most of the simulated configurations. The simulated biomass displays fluctuations between bottom-up and top-down trophic control over time rather than persistent trophic control. Our results show that the configurations we have reconstructed are strongly overlapping with our simulated configurations, though they represent only a subset of the possible configurations of the Barents Sea food-web.
While ecosystem-based fisheries management calls for explicit accounting for interactions between exploited populations and their environment, moving from single species to ecosystem-level assessment is a significant challenge. For many ecologically significant groups, data may be lacking, collected at inappropriate scales or be highly uncertain. In this study, we aim to reconstruct trophic interactions in the Norwegian Sea pelagic food-web during the last three decades. For this purpose, we develop a food-web assessment model constrained by existing observations and knowledge. The model is based on inverse modelling and is designed to handle input observations and knowledge that are uncertain. We analyse if the reconstructed food-web dynamics are supportive of top-down or bottom-up controls on zooplankton and small pelagic fish and of competition for resources between the three small pelagic species. Despite high uncertainties in the reconstructed dynamics, the model results highlight that interannual variations in the biomass of copepods, krill, amphipods, herring, and blue whiting can primarily be explained by changes in their consumption rather than by predation and fishing. For mackerel, variations in biomass cannot be unambiguously attributed to either consumption or predation and fishing. The model results provide no support for top-down control on planktonic prey biomass and little support for the hypothesised competition for resources between the three small pelagic species, despite partially overlapping diets. This suggests that the lack of explicit accounting for trophic interactions between the three pelagic species likely have had little impact on the robustness of past stock assessments and management in the Norwegian Sea.
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