Abstract Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

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Abstract. Fire refugia, sometimes referred to as fire islands, shadows, skips, residuals, or fire remnants, are an important element of the burn mosaic, but we lack a quantitative framework that links observations of fire refugia from different environmental contexts. Here, we develop and test a conceptual model for how predictability of fire refugia varies according to topographic complexity and fire weather conditions. Refugia were quantified as areas unburned or burned at comparatively low severity based on remotely sensed burn severity data. We assessed the relationship between refugia and a suite of terrain-related explanatory metrics by fitting a collection of boosted regression tree models. The models were developed for seven study fires that burned in conifer-dominated forested landscapes of the Western Cordillera of Canada between 2001 and 2014. We fit nine models, each for distinct levels of fire weather and terrain ruggedness. Our framework revealed that the predictability and abundance of fire refugia varied among these environmental settings. We observed highest predictability under moderate fire weather conditions and moderate terrain ruggedness (ROC-AUC = 0.77), and lowest predictability in flatter landscapes and under high fire weather conditions (ROC-AUC = 0.63-0.68). Catchment slope, local aspect, relative position, topographic wetness, topographic convergence, and local slope all contributed to discriminating where refugia occur but the relative importance of these topographic controls differed among environments. Our framework allows us to characterize the predictability of contemporary fire refugia across multiple environmental settings and provides important insights for ecosystem resilience, wildfire management, conservation planning, and climate change adaptation.

The size and frequency of large wildfires in western North America have increased in recent years, a trend climate change is likely to exacerbate. Due to fuel limitations, recently burned forests resist burning for upwards of 30 years; however, extreme fire-conducive weather enables reburning at shorter fire-free intervals than expected. This research quantifies the outcomes of short-interval reburns in upland and wetland environments of northwestern Canadian boreal forests and identifies an interactive effect of post-fire drought. Despite adaptations to wildfire amongst boreal plants, post-fire forests at paired short- and long-interval sites were significantly different, with short-interval sites having lower stem densities of trees due to reduced conifer recruitment, a higher proportion of broadleaf trees, less residual organic material, and reduced herbaceous vegetation cover. Drought reinforced changes in proportions of tree species and decreases in tree recruitment, reinforcing non-resilient responses to short-interval reburning. Drier and warmer weather will increase the incidence of short-interval reburning and amplify the ecological changes such events cause, as wildfire activity and post-fire drought increase synergistically. These interacting disturbances will accelerate climate-driven changes in boreal forest structure and composition. Our findings identify processes of ongoing and future change in a climate-sensitive biome.

Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years.

. 2018. Variability and drivers of burn severity in the northwestern Canadian boreal forest. Ecosphere 9(2):e02128. 10. 1002/ecs2.2128 Abstract. Burn severity (ecological impacts of fire on vegetation and soils) influences post-fire stand structure and species composition. The spatial pattern of burn severity may compound the ecological impacts of fire through distances to seed sources and availability of bud banks and seedbeds. Land managers require spatial burn severity data to manage post-fire risks, ecosystem recovery, and assess the outcomes of fires. This research seeks to characterize and explain variability in burn severity in the northwestern boreal forest. We assessed burn severity one year post-fire in six large wildfires that burned in 2014. We measured burn severity using the Composite Burn Index, surface Burn Severity Index, Canopy Fire Severity Index, and percent overstory mortality, describing a range of surface and overstory fire effects. Burn severity was variable, ranging from unburned residuals to complete overstory mortality and intense combustion. We related field measurements to remotely sensed multispectral burn severity metrics of the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), the Relativized dNBR, and the Relativized Burn Ratio. Diagnostic models of burn severity using relativized metrics had lower errors and better (though not significantly so) fits to the field data. Spatial patterns of burn severity were consistent with those observed in other large fires in North America. Standreplacing patches were large, aggregated, and covered the largest proportion of the landscape. These patterns were not consistent across the four mapped burn severity field metrics, suggesting such metrics may be viewed as related, but complementary, as they depict different aspects of severity. Prognostic models indicated burn severity was explained by pre-fire stand structure and composition, topoedaphic context, and fire weather at time of burning. Wetlands burned less severely than uplands, and open stands with high basal areas experienced lower burn severity in upland vegetation communities. This research offers an enhanced understanding of the relationship between ground observations and remotely sensed severity metrics, in conjunction with stand-level drivers of burn severity. The diverse fuel complexes and extreme fire weather during the 2014 fire season produced the complex patterns and broad range of burn severity observed.

Carbon (C) emissions from wildfires are a key terrestrial-atmosphere interaction that influences global atmospheric composition and climate. Positive feedbacks between climate warming and boreal wildfires are predicted based on top-down controls of fire weather and climate, but C emissions from boreal fires may also depend on bottom-up controls of fuel availability related to edaphic controls and overstory tree composition. Here we synthesized data from 417 field sites spanning six ecoregions in the northwestern North American boreal forest and assessed the network of interactions among potential bottom-up and top-down drivers of C emissions. Our results indicate that C emissions are more strongly driven by fuel availability than fire weather, highlighting the importance of fine-scale drainage conditions, overstory tree species composition, and fuel accumulation rates for predicting total C emissions. By implication, climate change-induced modification of fuels needs to be considered for accurately predicting future C emissions from boreal wildfires. Main TextClimate warming and drying in parts of the boreal forest have led to heightened wildfire activity 1,2 , with large increases in the annual area burned over recent decades 3,4 (Figure 1).Climate influences the amount and type of fuel available to burn over long timescales. At shorter timescales, weather patterns dictate the flammability of fuels and weather parameters are expressed as percentiles relative to longer-term climate patterns. Consequently, carbon (C) emissions from boreal wildfires have been considered to be dominated by top-down controls of fire-conducive weather [5][6][7] . The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System 8 is broadly used to predict fire activity and C emissions throughout the boreal forest and even globally [9][10][11]

The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.