Abstract. Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We show how to determine which parameters maintain long-term growth. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a Peregrine Falcon population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently decided to allow minimal harvesting of Peregrine Falcons after their recent removal from the Endangered Species List. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate k . 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two-year-olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two-year-olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1% and 6% depending of the proportion of two-year-olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.

BackgroundeHealth apps have the potential to meet the information needs of patient populations and improve health literacy rates. However, little work has been done to document perceived usability of portals and health literacy of specific topics.ObjectiveOur aim was to establish a baseline of lung cancer health literacy and perceived portal usability.MethodsA survey based on previously validated instruments was used to assess a baseline of patient portal usability and health literacy within the domain of lung cancer. The survey was distributed via Amazon’s Mechanical Turk to 500 participants.ResultsOur results show differences in preferences and literacy by demographic cohorts, with a trend of chronically ill patients having a more positive reception of patient portals and a higher health literacy rate of lung cancer knowledge (P<.05).ConclusionsThis article provides a baseline of usability needs and health literacy that suggests that chronically ill patients have a greater preference for patient portals and higher level of health literacy within the domain of lung cancer.

This article examines the association between fathers' alcohol problems and children's effortful control during the transition from middle childhood to early adolescence (fourth to sixth grade). Additionally, we examined the role of two potential moderators of this association, fathers' antisocial behavior and child gender. Method: The sample consisted of 197 families (102 nonalcoholic [NA]; 95 father alcoholic [FA], in which only the father met diagnostic criteria for alcohol abuse or dependence). The sample was recruited from New York State birth records when the children were 12 months old. This analysis focused on 12-month alcohol problem data and child effortful control data measured in the fourth and sixth grades. Results: Structural equation modeling revealed that FA status was associated with lower effortful control on the Stroop Color and Word and Tower of London tasks in the sixth grade, but antisocial behavior did not moderate this association. Multiple group analysis revealed that FA status was associated with higher Stroop interference scores in fourth and sixth grade and lower move scores on the Tower of London task for boys but not girls. Conclusions: The association between FA status and effortful control may be attenuated in middle childhood (fourth grade) but emerge again in early adolescence (sixth grade). The results indicate that sons of alcoholics may be particularly vulnerable to poor self-regulatory strategies and that early adolescence may be an important time for intervening with these families to facilitate higher self-regulation before the transition to high school.

Examples of the inaccessibility of mental processes by means of verbal recall are described with particular reference to the accuracy of quantitative estimates of size, distance, and duration. Evidence is presented in support of the hypothesis that nonverbal retrieval techniques are more accurate than quantitative verbal estimates. Implications for the judicial process are considered.

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