Spatial population synchrony is common among populations of the same species and is an important predictor of extinction risk. Despite the potential consequences for metapopulation persistence, we still largely lack understanding of what makes one species more likely to be synchronized than another given the same environmental conditions. Generally, environmental conditions on a shared environment or a species' sensitivity to the environment can explain the extent of synchrony. Populations that are closer together experience more similar fluctuations in their environments than those populations that are further apart and are therefore more synchronized. The relative importance of environmental and demographic stochasticity for population dynamics is strongly linked to species life history traits, such as pace of life, why may impact population synchrony. For populations that migrate, there may be multiple environmental conditions at different locations driving synchrony. However, the importance of life history and migration strategies in determining patterns of spatial population synchrony have rarely been explored empirically. We therefore hypothesize that generation time, a proxy for pace of life, and migration play an important role in determining spatial population synchrony. We used population abundance data on breeding birds from four countries to investigate patterns of spatial population synchrony in growth rate and abundance. We investigated differences in synchrony across a gradient of generation times in resident, short-distance migrant, and long-distance migrant bird species. Species with shorter generation times were more synchronized than species with longer generation times. Short-distance migrants were more synchronized than long-distance migrants and resident birds. Our results provide novel empirical links between spatial population synchrony and species traits known to be of key importance for population dynamics, generation time and migration characteristics. We show how these different mechanisms can be combined to understand species-specific causes of spatial population synchrony. Understanding these specific drivers of spatial population synchrony is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.
Spatial population synchrony is common among populations of the same species and is an important predictor of extinction risk. Despite the potential consequences for metapopulation persistence, we still largely lack understanding of what makes one species more likely to be synchronized than another given the same environmental conditions. Generally, environmental conditions in a shared environment or a species' sensitivity to the environment can explain the extent of synchrony. Populations that are closer together experience more similar fluctuations in their environments than those populations that are further apart and are therefore more synchronized. The relative importance of environmental and demographic stochasticity for population dynamics is strongly linked to species' life‐history traits, such as pace of life, which may impact population synchrony. For populations that migrate, there may be multiple environmental conditions at different locations driving synchrony. However, the importance of life history and migration tactics in determining patterns of spatial population synchrony have rarely been explored empirically. We therefore hypothesize that increasing generation time, a proxy for pace of life, would decrease spatial population synchrony and that migrants would be less synchronized than resident species. We used population abundance data on breeding birds from four countries to investigate patterns of spatial population synchrony in growth rate and abundance. We calculated the mean spatial population synchrony between log‐transformed population growth rates or log‐transformed abundances for each species and country separately. We investigated differences in synchrony across generation times in resident (n = 67), short‐distance migrant (n = 86) and long‐distance migrant (n = 39) bird species. Species with shorter generation times were more synchronized than species with longer generation times. Short‐distance migrants were more synchronized than long‐distance migrants and resident birds. Our results provide novel empirical links between spatial population synchrony and species traits known to be of key importance for population dynamics, generation time and migration tactics. We show how these different mechanisms can be combined to understand species‐specific causes of spatial population synchrony. Understanding these specific drivers of spatial population synchrony is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.
Integration of data is needed to address many of the problems currently threatening biodiversity. There has been an exponential increase in quantity and type of biodiversity data in recent years, including presence-absence, counts, and presence-only citizen science data. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are frequently used in ecology to predict current and future ranges of species, and are a common tool used when making conservation prioritization decisions. Current SDM practice typically underutilizes the large amount of publicly available biodiversity data and does not follow a set of standard best practices. Integrating data types with open-source tools and reproducible workflows saves time, increases collaboration opportunities, and increases the power of data inference in SDMs. Here, we address the discipline-wide call for open science and standards in SDMs by (1) proposing methods and (2) generating a reproducible workflow to integrate different available data types to increase the power of SDMs. We provide an R package, intSDM, which reduces the learning curve for the use of integrated SDMs and makes them an accessible tool for use by non-programmers. We provide code and guidance on how to accommodate users diverse needs and ecological questions with different data types available on the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), the largest biodiversity data aggregator in the world. Finally, we provide a case study of the application of our reproducible workflow by creating SDMs for vascular plants in Norway, integrating presence-only and presence-absence species occurrence data, climate, and habitat data.
Interior Alaska, USA, is the least‐studied region in Alaska for breeding shorebirds because of challenging accessibility and expectations of low densities and abundances. We estimated lowland and upland shorebird population sizes on 370,420 ha of military lands in interior Alaska boreal forest from May–July 2016 and 2017. We modified the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) protocol used elsewhere in Alaska and incorporated a probability‐based sampling design and dependent double‐observer methods. We pooled all lowland shorebird and all upland shorebird observations and estimated abundance using Huggins closed captures models in Program MARK. Estimated abundances of all lowland and upland shorebirds were 42,239 ± 13,431 (SE) and 3,523 ± 494, respectively. The survey area is important for shorebirds in Alaska. We estimate that military lands in interior Alaska support 45,762 ± 13,925 shorebirds, including 7 species of conservation concern. Higher abundance of lowland shorebirds was best explained by lower elevation, lower percent scrub canopy, and higher percent water on plots. Higher abundance of upland shorebirds was best explained by higher elevation and increased distance to wetland. Our modified Arctic PRISM protocol was effective for surveys in the boreal forest and we recommend continued use of method modifications for future shorebird surveys in boreal forests. Identifying baseline abundances of shorebirds using interior Alaska is an important step in monitoring distributional shifts and potential future population declines. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.
Lesser Yellowlegs (Tringa flavipes) abundance has declined by approximately 75% across North America since 1970. Despite this dramatic decline, Lesser Yellowlegs are infrequently studied on their breeding grounds and have rarely been studied in the boreal forest of Alaska where population size is uncertain. We used a spatially balanced sampling design and surveyed 400 by 400 m plots in 2016 and 2017 to (1) estimate abundance and habitat use of Lesser Yellowlegs breeding on military lands in interior Alaska, and (2) test hypotheses about which habitat covariates best explain variation in plot abundances and habitat use. We predicted that boreal forest habitats on military lands in central Alaska supported a large percent of breeding Lesser Yellowlegs and that plots containing water and situated closer to wetlands would have the highest abundances compared to other habitat variables tested. We also predicted that increased presence of lowland habitat and associated vegetation covariates (e.g., percent low scrub canopy) increased probability of habitat use. In 2017, Lesser Yellowlegs abundance at the study site was 12,478 individuals, and habitat use was negatively associated with increasing elevation and percent canopy cover on plot. We estimate that military lands in interior Alaska support 8% of all Lesser Yellowlegs breeding in Alaska. Therefore, studies identifying important Lesser Yellowlegs breeding habitat and addressing conservation priorities in the boreal forest should be continued. Les estimations de population et d'utilisation de l'habitat indiquent que les Petits Chevaliers (Tringa flavipes) se reproduisent en grand nombre dans l'intérieur des terres de l'AlaskaRESUME_. La population de petits chevaliers (Tringa flavipes) a baissé d'environ 75 % en Amérique du Nord depuis 1970. Malgré ce déclin spectaculaire, les petits chevaliers sont rarement étudiés sur leurs territoires de reproduction et ont rarement fait l'objet d'études dans la forêt boréale d'Alaska, où l'importance de leur population est incertaine. Nous avons utilisé un modèle d'échantillonnage équilibré dans l'espace et observé des parcelles de 400 x 400 mètres en 2017 afin (1) d'estimer l'abondance et l'utilisation de l'habitat par les petits chevaliers qui se reproduisent sur les terrains militaires à l'intérieur de l'Alaska, et (2) de tester des hypothèses concernant les covariables de l'habitat qui expliquent le mieux les variations en termes d'abondance sur les parcelles et d'utilisation de l'habitat. Nous avions prédit que les habitats de la forêt boréale situés sur des terrains militaires du centre de l'Alaska accueillaient un fort pourcentage de petits chevaliers pendant la période de reproduction et que les parcelles contenant de l'eau et plus proches des terrains marécageux abritaient des populations plus nombreuses que les autres variables d'habitat étudiées. Nous pensions également que la présence accrue de covariables d'habitats de basse terre et de végétation associée (par ex. le pourcentage d'arbustes) augmentait la probabilit...
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