Background Remodeling biomarkers carry high potential for predicting adverse events in chronic heart failure ( CHF ) patients. However, temporal patterns during the course of CHF , and especially the trajectory before an adverse event, are unknown. We studied the prognostic value of temporal patterns of 14 cardiac remodeling biomarker candidates in stable patients with CHF from the Bio‐SHiFT (Serial Biomarker Measurements and New Echocardiographic Techniques in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Result in Tailored Prediction of Prognosis) study. Methods and Results In 263 CHF patients, we performed trimonthly blood sampling during a median follow‐up of 2.2 years. For the analysis, we selected all baseline samples, the 2 samples closest to the primary end point ( PE ), or the last sample available for end point–free patients. Thus, in 567 samples, we measured suppression of tumorigenicity‐2, galectin‐3, galectin‐4, growth differentiation factor‐15, matrix metalloproteinase‐2, 3, and 9, tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase‐4, perlecan, aminopeptidase‐N, caspase‐3, cathepsin‐D, cathepsin‐Z, and cystatin‐B. The PE was a composite of cardiovascular mortality, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, and HF hospitalization. Associations between repeatedly measured biomarker candidates and the PE were investigated by joint modeling. Median age was 68 (interquartile range: 59–76) years with 72% men; 70 patients reached the PE . Repeatedly measured suppression of tumorigenicity‐2, galectin‐3, galectin‐4, growth differentiation factor‐15, matrix metalloproteinase‐2 and 9, tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase‐4, perlecan, cathepsin‐D, and cystatin‐B levels were significantly associated with the PE , and increased as the PE approached. The slopes of biomarker trajectories were also predictors of clinical outcome, independent of their absolute level. Associations persisted after adjustment for clinical characteristics and pharmacological treatment. Suppression of tumorigenicity‐2 was the strongest predictor (hazard ratio: 7.55 per SD difference, 95% CI : 5.53–10.30), followed by growth differentiation factor‐15 (4.06, 2.98–5.54) and matrix metalloproteinase‐2 (3.59, 2.55–5.05). Conclusions Temporal patterns of remodeling biomarker candidates predict adverse clinical outcomes in CHF . Clinical Trial Registration URL : http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 01851538.

The aim of our observational study was to derive a small set out of 92 repeatedly measured biomarkers with optimal predictive capacity for adverse clinical events in heart failure, which could be used for dynamic, individual risk assessment in clinical practice. In 250 chronic HFrEF (CHF) patients, we collected trimonthly blood samples during a median of 2.2 years. We selected 537 samples for repeated measurement of 92 biomarkers with the Cardiovascular Panel III (Olink Proteomics AB). We applied Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalization to select the optimal set of predictors of the primary endpoint (PE). The association between repeatedly measured levels of selected biomarkers and the PE was evaluated by multivariable joint models (mvJM) with stratified fivefold cross validation of the area under the curve (cvAUC). The PE occurred in 66(27%) patients. The optimal set of biomarkers selected by LASSO included 9 proteins: NT-proBNP, ST2, vWF, FABP4, IGFBP-1, PAI-1, PON-3, transferrin receptor protein-1, and chitotriosidase-1, that yielded a cvAUC of 0.88, outperforming the discriminative ability of models consisting of standard biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, eGFR clinically adjusted) − 0.82 and performing equally well as an extended literature-based set of acknowledged biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, hs-CRP, GDF-15, ST2, PAI-1, Galectin 3) − 0.88. Nine out of 92 serially measured circulating proteins provided a multivariable model for adverse clinical events in CHF patients with high discriminative ability. These proteins reflect wall stress, remodelling, endothelial dysfunction, iron deficiency, haemostasis/fibrinolysis and innate immunity activation. A panel containing these proteins could contribute to dynamic, personalized risk assessment.Clinical Trial Registration: 10/05/2013 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01851538?term=nCT01851538&draw=2&rank=1.

Cardiovascular inflammation and vascular endothelial dysfunction are involved in chronic heart failure (CHF), and cellular adhesion molecules are considered to play a key role in these mechanisms. We evaluated temporal patterns of 12 blood biomarkers of cell adhesion in patients with CHF. In 263 ambulant patients, serial, tri-monthly blood samples were collected during a median follow-up of 2.2 (1.4–2.5) years. The primary endpoint (PE) was a composite of cardiovascular mortality, HF hospitalization, heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and was reached in 70 patients. We selected the baseline blood samples in all patients, the two samples closest to a PE, or, for event-free patients, the last sample available. In these 567 samples, associations between biomarkers and PE were investigated by joint modelling. The median age was 68 (59–76) years, with 72% men and 74% New York Heart Association class I–II. Repeatedly measured levels of Complement component C1q receptor (C1qR), Cadherin 5 (CDH5), Chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1), Ephrin type-B receptor 4 (EPHB4), Intercellular adhesion molecule-2 (ICAM-2) and Junctional adhesion molecule A (JAM-A) were independently associated with the PE. Their rates of change also predicted clinical outcome. Level of CHI3L1 was numerically the strongest predictor with a hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval) of 2.27 (1.66–3.16) per SD difference in level, followed by JAM-A (2.10, 1.42–3.23) and C1qR (1.90, 1.36–2.72), adjusted for clinical characteristics. In conclusion, temporal patterns of C1qR, CDH5, CHI3L1, EPHB4, ICAM2 and JAM-A are strongly and independently associated with clinical outcome in CHF patients.

Objective This article investigates whether longitudinally measured fibrinolysis factors are associated with cardiac events in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods A median of 9 (interquartile range [IQR] 5–10) serial, tri-monthly blood samples per patient were prospectively collected in 263 CHF patients during a median follow-up of 2.2 (IQR 1.4–2.5) years. Seventy patients (cases) reached the composite endpoint of cardiac death, heart failure hospitalization, left ventricular assist device, or heart transplantation. From all longitudinal samples, we selected baseline samples in all patients and the last two samples before the event in cases or the last sample available in event-free patients. Herein, we measured plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA), urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA), and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor (suPAR). Associations between temporal biomarker patterns during follow-up and the cardiac event were investigated using a joint model. Results Cases were on average older and showed higher New York Heart Association class than those who remained event-free. They also had lower blood pressures, and were more likely to have diabetes, renal failure, and atrial fibrillation. Longitudinally measured PAI-1, uPA, and suPAR were independently associated with adverse cardiac events after correction for clinical characteristics (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) per standard deviation increase of 2.09 (1.28–3.45) for PAI-1, 1.91 (1.18–3.24) for uPA, and 3.96 (2.48–6.63) for suPAR. Serial measurements of tPA were not significantly associated with the event after correction for multiple testing. Conclusion Longitudinally measured PAI-1, uPA, and suPAR are strongly associated with adverse cardiac events during the course of CHF. If future research confirms our results, these fibrinolytic factors may carry potential for improved, and personalized, heart failure surveillance and treatment monitoring.