Resumo O setor da pecuária é fortemente influenciado pelos fenômenos climáticos, e a instabilidade pluviométrica se torna um entrave à capacidade produtiva, sobretudo dos municípios pertencentes ao semiárido. Os produtores planejam e organizam sua produção a partir de experiências passadas e criam expectativas quanto ao futuro. Este trabalho avaliou a forma como as variáveis exógenas (pluviometria e preços) interferiam nas previsões dos produtores de leite no Ceará, no período de 1974 a 2019. Geraram-se projeções acerca das variáveis endógenas sobre as quais os produtores de leite tinham poder de decisão (rebanho e produtividade). Embora eles não tivessem poder de decisão sobre o preço médio, que é determinado exogenamente pelo mercado, o estudo fez estimativas das formas de projeções também para essa variável. Estimou-se a maneira como provavelmente a pluviometria pudesse afetar as previsões das variáveis associadas à produção de leite. Utilizou-se do método ARIMA, proposto por Box e Jenkins (1976), para captar o comportamento das variáveis com base em séries históricas (1974-2019). Os resultados confirmaram o impacto indireto das chuvas e dos preços sobre as variáveis endógenas de decisão. As trajetórias das expectativas de produção e dos valores projetados, bem como os testes estatísticos realizados, sinalizaram a robustez dos ajustamentos feitos na pesquisa.
The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contracts of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf) were distributed in the Brazilian regions and states between the years 2000 and 2018. To reach the research objectives, which also sought to evaluate the homogeneity/heterogeneity of the appropriation of Pronaf resources in Brazilian regions and states, data from the Central Bank of Brazil were used. The values were updated for the year 2018. The rural credit appropriation index (ICAR) was constructed, which is the weighted average of the relative annual values of the Pronaf credit modalities: funding and investment for crop and animal production. The weights used for the weighting were generated using factor analysis. The results of the research showed that the appropriation of Pronaf's resources was quite unequal in the evaluated period, being the richest regions and states the ones that captured the highest average values of the credit modalities taken in aggregated way.
The overall objective of the research was to evaluate the synergy between annual rainfall and the defining variables of milk production in the twenty largest producing municipalities in Ceará between the years 1973 and 20209. The research used annual rainfall data taken from the Ceara Meteorology and Water Resources Foundation (FUNCEME) as well as from the IBGE's Municipal Livestock Surveys (PPM) during the investigated period. The rainfall of the municipalities was organized into drought, normal and rainy periods, observing statistical criteria: average and standard deviation. It was used the coefficient of variation (CV) to measure the instabilities of the variables. It was created the instability index (INST) to capture the synergy between the annual precipitation of the municipalities with the number of lactating cows, the daily productivity of milk per cow and the average price of milk received by producers, in each municipality. To construct the INST, it was used the Factor Analysis, with the technique of decomposition in principal components. The results confirmed the high temporal instabilities of rainfall in the municipalities that were also observed in the defining variables of milk production in the studied municipalities. It can also be inferred from the results that, in all municipalities, the estimated INST for the rainy periods were always higher than those observed in the other periods (drought and normal), which confirms the great importance of rainfall for gauge good economic results in milk production in Ceara. The estimated INST confirmed the assumptions that guided the conduct of this research, that there is significant synergy between rainfall, the number of lactating cows, daily productivity and the price of milk received by farmers, in the largest milk producing municipalities in Ceara between the years 1973 and 2020.
A pesquisa teve como objetivo geral avaliar como se deu a sinergia entre a pluviometria anual e as variáveis definidoras na produção nos vinte municípios maiores produtores de leite do Ceará entre os anos de 1973 e 2020. O estudo usou dados retirados da Funceme e da PPM. As chuvas dos municípios foram organizadas em períodos de seca, normalidade e chuvoso, observando critérios estatísticos. Foi criado o índice de instabilidade (INST) que buscou captar sinergia entre as pluviometrias anuais dos municípios, o número de vacas em lactação, produtividade diária de leite por vaca e o preço médio de leite recebido pelos produtores. Os resultados confirmaram as elevadas instabilidades temporais e espaciais das pluviometrias dos municípios. Depreende-se também que, em todos os municípios os INST estimados para os períodos de seca foraminferiores aos observados nos demais períodos, o que confirma a grande importância da pluviometria no sucesso da pecuária no Ceará.
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