Many carnivore populations escaped extinction during the twentieth century as a result of legal protections, habitat restoration, and changes in public attitudes. However, encounters between carnivores, livestock, and humans are increasing in some areas, raising concerns about the costs of carnivore conservation. We present a method to predict sites of human-carnivore conflicts regionally, using as an example the mixed forest-agriculture landscapes of Wisconsin and Minnesota (U.S.A.). We used a matched-pair analysis of 17 landscape variables in a geographic information system to discriminate affected areas from unaffected areas at two spatial scales (townships and farms). Wolves (Canis lupus) selectively preyed on livestock in townships with high proportions of pasture and high densities of deer (Odocoileus virginianus) combined with low proportions of crop lands, coniferous forest, herbaceous wetlands, and open water. These variables plus road density and farm size also appeared to predict risk for individual farms when we considered Minnesota alone. In Wisconsin only, farm size, crop lands, and road density were associated with the risk of wolf attack on livestock. At the level of townships, we generated two state-wide maps to predict the extent and location of future predation on livestock. Our approach can be applied wherever spatial data are available on sites of conflict between wildlife and humans. Predicción de Conflicto Humano-Carnívoro: un Modelo Espacial Basado en 25 Años de Datos de Depredación de Ganado por Lobos Resumen: Muchas poblaciones de carnívoros lograron evitar la extinción durante el siglo veinte debido a protecciones legales, restauración de hábitat y cambios en las actitudes del público. Sin embargo, los encuentros entre carnívoros, ganado y humanos están incrementando en algunasáreas, lo cual es causa de preocupación en cuanto a los costos de la conservación de carnívoros. Presentamos un método para predecir los sitios de conflictos humanos -carnívoro a nivel regional, utilizando como ejemplo los paisajes mixtos de bosques-agricultura de Wisconsin y Minnesota (E. U. A.). Utilizamos un análisis apareado de 17 variables del paisaje en un sistema § §Current address: Living Landscapes Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Treves et al. Predicting Human-Carnivore Conflict 115de información geográfica para discriminaráreas afectadas deáreas no afectadas a dos escalas espaciales (municipios y establecimientos). Los lobos (Canis lupus) depredaron selectivamente el ganado en municipios con proporciones altas de pasto y altas densidades de venado (Odocoileus virginianus) combinadas con proporciones bajas de terrenos agrícolas bosques de coníferas, humedales herbáceos y cuerpos de agua abiertos. Estas variables, junto con la densidad de caminos y el tamaño del establecimiento, permitieron además predecir el riesgo para establecimientos individuales cuando analizamos solamente el estado de Minnesota. En Wisconsin, solamente el tamaño del establecimiento, los terrenos agrícolas y la densidad de cam...

Management of small mammal communities in forest ecosystems requires a working knowledge of the scales at which species presence and abundance can best be predicted. Habitat-based models were developed to characterize the distribution of a boreal relict, the southern red-backed vole, Clethrionomys gapperi, in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA, at three hierarchical scales of analysis. Vole presence and abundance were most evident at the high-resolution (macrohabitat) scale, followed by the intermediateresolution scale. The low-resolution model was the least effective for predicting presence or abundance and reflects the need for more resolute landscape classification systems if small mammal populations are to be accounted for in an ecologically relevant manner. Tree and shrub communities indicative of suitable vole habitat included Fraxinus pennsylvanica and Tsuga canadensis in the canopy and Carpinus caroliniana in the understory. Vole abundance increased with incidence of tree species such as Betula alleghaniensis, Pinus rigida, and Prunus serotina in the canopy, and Acer spicatum and woody vines in the understory. Voles were associated with northwest-facing high-elevation sites with abundant rocky substrate, likely a reflection of physiological water and thermal requirements, biogeographic influences, and the importance of substrate complexity for decreasing inter-and intraspecific interactions and avoidance of predators.Identification of the most effective resolution of landscape characterization improves habitat-based models of C. gapperi population dynamics in managed landscapes. Lowresolution habitat classifications may suffice for detecting suitable vole habitats within forest types, but prediction of vole abundance is most accurate at the greatest resolution, i.e., the macrohabitat scale. The utility of forest communities and habitats at various scales to predict vole presence and abundance suggests that C. gapperi may be a useful indicator species for identification and assessment of habitat important for rare small mammal species in the southern Appalachians.

: Wolf (Canis lupus) depredations on livestock in Minnesota, USA, are an economic problem for many livestock producers, and depredating wolves are lethally controlled. We sought to determine the effectiveness of lethal control through the analysis of data from 923 government‐verified wolf depredations from 1979 to 1998. We analyzed the data by 1) assessing the correlations between the number of wolves killed in response to depredations with number of depredations the following year at state and local levels, and 2) the time to the next depredation. No analysis indicated that trapping wolves substantially reduced the following year's depredations at state or local levels. However, more specific analyses indicated that in certain situations, killing wolves was more effective than no action (i.e., not trapping). For example, trapping and killing adult males decreased the re‐depredation risk. At sheep farms, killing wolves was generally effective. Attempting to trap, regardless of the results, seemed more effective at reducing depredations than not trapping, suggesting that mere human activity near depredation sites might deter future depredations. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):778–784; 2008)

Wolf (Canis lupus) depredations on livestock in Minnesota have been increasing over the last 20 years. A major explanation cited for this increase is wolf range expansion, but no studies have tested this explanation. Additional reasons could include 1) wolf colonization of new areas within long‐existing wolf range, 2) learning by wolves in established range, and 3) increased wolf density. We did not assess increasing wolf density as a factor because estimated wolf density in Minnesota has not increased. To assess how each of the other factors might have affected depredations, we created and analyzed a database of Minnesota's 923 verified depredations at 435 farms. We graphed the numbers of verified depredations and the number of farms with verified depredations to assess temporal trends and used ArcView GIS software to assess spatial relationships of the depredations. All 3 factors tested (colonization, range expansion, and learning) seemed to have contributed to wolf depredation increase. However, the proportion of depredations occurring due to wolf range expansion increased from 20% in 1989 to 48% in 1998.

Management of small mammal communities in forest ecosystems requires a working knowledge of the scales at which species presence and abundance can best be predicted. Habitat‐based models were developed to characterize the distribution of a boreal relict, the southern red‐backed vole, Clethrionomys gapperi, in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA, at three hierarchical scales of analysis. Vole presence and abundance were most evident at the high‐resolution (macrohabitat) scale, followed by the intermediate‐resolution scale. The low‐resolution model was the least effective for predicting presence or abundance and reflects the need for more resolute landscape classification systems if small mammal populations are to be accounted for in an ecologically relevant manner. Tree and shrub communities indicative of suitable vole habitat included Fraxinus pennsylvanica and Tsuga canadensis in the canopy and Carpinus caroliniana in the understory. Vole abundance increased with incidence of tree species such as Betula alleghaniensis, Pinus rigida, and Prunus serotina in the canopy, and Acer spicatum and woody vines in the understory. Voles were associated with northwest‐facing high‐elevation sites with abundant rocky substrate, likely a reflection of physiological water and thermal requirements, biogeographic influences, and the importance of substrate complexity for decreasing inter‐ and intraspecific interactions and avoidance of predators. Identification of the most effective resolution of landscape characterization improves habitat‐based models of C. gapperi population dynamics in managed landscapes. Low‐resolution habitat classifications may suffice for detecting suitable vole habitats within forest types, but prediction of vole abundance is most accurate at the greatest resolution, i.e., the macrohabitat scale. The utility of forest communities and habitats at various scales to predict vole presence and abundance suggests that C. gapperi may be a useful indicator species for identification and assessment of habitat important for rare small mammal species in the southern Appalachians.

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