Importance: A surge in severe cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) in children would present unique challenges for hospitals and public health preparedness efforts in the United States. Objective: To provide evidence-based estimates of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) and projected cumulative numbers of severely ill pediatric COVID-19 cases requiring hospitalization during the US 2020 pandemic. Design: Empirical case projection study. Main Outcomes and Measures: Adjusted pediatric severity proportions and adjusted pediatric criticality proportions were derived from clinical and spatiotemporal modeling studies of the COVID-19 epidemic in China for the period January-February 2020. Estimates of total children infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the United States through April 6, 2020, were calculated using US pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) cases and the adjusted pediatric criticality proportion. Projected numbers of severely and critically ill children with COVID-19 were derived by applying the adjusted severity and criticality proportions to US population data, under several scenarios of cumulative pediatric infection proportion (CPIP). Results: By April 6, 2020, there were 74 children who had been reported admitted to PICUs in 19 states, reflecting an estimated 176 190 children nationwide infected with SARS-CoV-2 (52 381 infants and toddlers younger than 2 years, 42 857 children aged 2-11 years, and 80 952 children aged 12-17 years). Under a CPIP scenario of 5%, there would be 3.7 million children infected with SARS-CoV-2, 9907 severely ill children requiring hospitalization, and 1086 critically ill children requiring PICU admission. Under a CPIP scenario of 50%, 10 865 children would require PICU admission, 99 073 would require hospitalization for severe pneumonia, and 37.0 million would be infected with SARS-CoV-2. Conclusions and Relevance: Because there are 74.0 million children 0 to 17 years old in the United States, the projected numbers of severe cases could overextend available pediatric hospital care resources under several moderate CPIP scenarios for 2020 despite lower severity of COVID-19 in children than in adults.
Background: Black-white disparities in stroke mortality are well documented, but few recent studies have examined racial/ethnic disparities in stroke hospitalizations among young adults. We analyzed recent (2001–2006) trends in stroke hospitalizations and hospital case-fatality for black, Hispanic, and white adults aged 25–49 years in Florida. Methods: Hospitalization rates were calculated using population estimates from the census, and hospital discharges with a primary diagnosis of stroke (ICD-9-CM 430, 431, 434, 436) (n = 16,317). Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used to examine racial/ethnic disparities in stroke mortality prior to discharge, after adjustment for patient sociodemographics, stroke subtype, risk factors, and comorbidities. Results: Age-adjusted stroke hospitalization rates for blacks were over 3 times higher than rates for whites, while rates for Hispanics were slightly higher than rates for whites. Hemorrhagic strokes were proportionally greater among Hispanics compared with blacks and whites (p < 0.0001). Blacks were most likely to have diagnosed hypertension (62.3%), morbid obesity (10.9%) or drug abuse (13.6%). Whites were most likely to have diagnosed hyperlipidemia (21.0%), alcohol abuse (9.5%), and to be smokers (30.6%). The in-hospital fatality rate for all strokes was highest among blacks (10.0%) compared with whites (9.0%) and Hispanics (8.2%). After adjustment for age, gender, insurance status, and all diagnosed risk factors and comorbidities, the black excess was no longer observed [odds ratio (OR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88–1.15, p = 0.93]. However, the Hispanic advantage in case-fatality was strengthened (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.55–0.79, p < 0.0001). Separate case-fatality analyses for ischemic versus hemorrhagic strokes yielded similar results. Conclusions: Our study found a strong and persistent black-white disparity in stroke hospitalization rates for young adults. In contrast, rates were similar for Hispanics and whites. Multivariate adjustment explained the 15% excess case-fatality for blacks; the short-term mortality advantage among Hispanics was strengthened after adjustment.
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