1. Climate change is facilitating a novel range expansion of southern pine beetle (SPB) into globally rare north-eastern pitch pine barrens.2. By assessing stand conditions present in SPB-infested and uninfested pitch pine stands on Long Island, NY, USA, we developed a regionally-calibrated hazard rating model that predicts stand-level SPB susceptibility.3. The model indicates that a stand's SPB susceptibility increases with (1) increasing pitch pine basal area, (2) increasing instances of previous year SPB spots nearby, and (3) sandy soil texture.4. The model informs adaptation strategies to a novel pest dynamic by supporting the identification and prioritization of high hazard stands for prevention management.5. An alignment between treatments effective in reducing SPB vulnerability and conserving pine barrens communities indicates that pine barrens can be managed both to improve resilience to future threats and preserve historic ecological conditions.

No abstract