Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere–atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of droughtinduced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function

SummaryPlant survival during drought requires adequate hydration in living tissues and carbohydrate reserves for maintenance and recovery. We hypothesized that tree growth and hydraulic strategy determines the intensity and duration of the 'physiological drought', thereby affecting the relative contributions of loss of hydraulic function and carbohydrate depletion during mortality.We compared patterns in growth rate, water relations, gas exchange and carbohydrate dynamics in three tree species subjected to prolonged drought.Two Eucalyptus species (E. globulus, E. smithii) exhibited high growth rates and water-use resulting in rapid declines in water status and hydraulic conductance. In contrast, conservative growth and water relations in Pinus radiata resulted in longer periods of negative carbon balance and significant depletion of stored carbohydrates in all organs. The ongoing demand for carbohydrates from sustained respiration highlighted the role that duration of drought plays in facilitating carbohydrate consumption.Two drought strategies were revealed, differentiated by plant regulation of water status: plants maximized gas exchange, but were exposed to low water potentials and rapid hydraulic dysfunction; and tight regulation of gas exchange at the cost of carbohydrate depletion. These findings provide evidence for a relationship between hydraulic regulation of water status and carbohydrate depletion during terminal drought.

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in plant tissue are frequently quantified to make inferences about plant responses to environmental conditions. Laboratories publishing estimates of NSC of woody plants use many different methods to evaluate NSC. We asked whether NSC estimates in the recent literature could be quantitatively compared among studies. We also asked whether any differences among laboratories were related to the extraction and quantification methods used to determine starch and sugar concentrations. These questions were addressed by sending sub-samples collected from five woody plant tissues, which varied in NSC content and chemical composition, to 29 laboratories. Each laboratory analyzed the samples with their laboratory-specific protocols, based on recent publications, to determine concentrations of soluble sugars, starch and their sum, total NSC. Laboratory estimates differed substantially for all samples. For example, estimates for Eucalyptus globulus leaves (EGL) varied from 23 to 116 (mean = 56) mg g(-1) for soluble sugars, 6-533 (mean = 94) mg g(-1) for starch and 53-649 (mean = 153) mg g(-1) for total NSC. Mixed model analysis of variance showed that much of the variability among laboratories was unrelated to the categories we used for extraction and quantification methods (method category R(2) = 0.05-0.12 for soluble sugars, 0.10-0.33 for starch and 0.01-0.09 for total NSC). For EGL, the difference between the highest and lowest least squares means for categories in the mixed model analysis was 33 mg g(-1) for total NSC, compared with the range of laboratory estimates of 596 mg g(-1). Laboratories were reasonably consistent in their ranks of estimates among tissues for starch (r = 0.41-0.91), but less so for total NSC (r = 0.45-0.84) and soluble sugars (r = 0.11-0.83). Our results show that NSC estimates for woody plant tissues cannot be compared among laboratories. The relative changes in NSC between treatments measured within a laboratory may be comparable within and between laboratories, especially for starch. To obtain comparable NSC estimates, we suggest that users can either adopt the reference method given in this publication, or report estimates for a portion of samples using the reference method, and report estimates for a standard reference material. Researchers interested in NSC estimates should work to identify and adopt standard methods.

Accurate ground-based estimation of the carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems is critical to quantifying the global carbon budget. Allometric models provide cost-effective methods for biomass prediction. But do such models vary with ecoregion or plant functional type? We compiled 15 054 measurements of individual tree or shrub biomass from across Australia to examine the generality of allometric models for above-ground biomass prediction. This provided a robust case study because Australia includes ecoregions ranging from arid shrublands to tropical rainforests, and has a rich history of biomass research, particularly in planted forests. Regardless of ecoregion, for five broad categories of plant functional type (shrubs; multistemmed trees; trees of the genus Eucalyptus and closely related genera; other trees of high wood density; and other trees of low wood density), relationships between biomass and stem diameter were generic. Simple power-law models explained 84-95% of the variation in biomass, with little improvement in model performance when other plant variables (height, bole wood density), or site characteristics (climate, age, management) were included. Predictions of stand-based biomass from allometric models of varying levels of generalization (species-specific, plant functional type) were validated using whole-plot harvest data from 17 contrasting stands (range: 9-356 Mg ha(-1) ). Losses in efficiency of prediction were <1% if generalized models were used in place of species-specific models. Furthermore, application of generalized multispecies models did not introduce significant bias in biomass prediction in 92% of the 53 species tested. Further, overall efficiency of stand-level biomass prediction was 99%, with a mean absolute prediction error of only 13%. Hence, for cost-effective prediction of biomass across a wide range of stands, we recommend use of generic allometric models based on plant functional types. Development of new species-specific models is only warranted when gains in accuracy of stand-based predictions are relatively high (e.g. high-value monocultures).

In woody species, potential mechanisms to compensate for tissue loss to herbivory and diseases have been related to post-event shifts in growth, biomass and internal resource allocation patterns, as modulated by external resource limitations. We examined the interactive effects of belowground resource limitations by varying nutrient and water availability, and aboveground carbon limitation imposed by a single defoliation event (40% leaf removal) on stem growth, whole-tree and within-tree resource allocation patterns (total non-structural carbohydrate and nitrogen) and below- and aboveground biomass allocation patterns in 8-month-old, field-grown Eucalyptus globulus Labill. saplings. Two months after treatments were imposed, the direction of the stem growth response to defoliation depended on the abiotic treatment. Five months after defoliation, however, we found little evidence that resource availability constrained the expression of tolerance to defoliation. With the exception of the combined low-nutrient and low-water supply treatment, saplings grown with (1) adequate water and nutrient supplies and even with (2) low-water supply or (3) low-nutrient supply were able to compensate for the 40% foliage loss. The observed compensatory responses were attributed to the activation of several short- and longer-term physiological mechanisms including reduced biomass allocation to coarse roots, mobilization of carbohydrate reserves, robust internal N dynamics and increased ratio of foliage to wood dry mass.

Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die-off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types. We identify a common probabilistic threshold associated with an increased risk of die-off across all the sites that we examined. We show that observed die-off events occur when water deficits and maximum temperatures are high and exist outside 98% of the observed range in drought intensity; this threshold was evident at all sites regardless of vegetation type and climate. The observed die-off events also coincided with at least one heat wave (three consecutive days above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature), emphasizing a pivotal role of heat stress in amplifying tree die-off and mortality processes. The joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distributions were modeled for each site to describe the co-occurrence of both hot and dry conditions and evaluate future shifts in climatic thresholds associated with the die-off events. Under a relatively dry and moderate warming scenario, the frequency of droughts capable of inducing significant tree die-off across Australia could increase from 1 in 24 years to 1 in 15 years by 2050, accompanied by a doubling in the occurrence of associated heat waves. By defining commonalities in drought conditions capable of inducing tree die-off, we show a strong interactive effect of water and high temperature stress and provide a consistent approach for assessing changes in the exposure of ecosystems to extreme drought events.

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Gas exchange, growth, water transport and carbon (C) metabolism diminish during drought according to their respective sensitivities to declining water status. The timing of this sequence of declining physiological functions may determine how water and C relations compromise plant survival. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the degree of asynchrony between declining C supply (photosynthesis) and C demand (growth and respiration) determines the rate and magnitude of changes in whole-plant non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) during drought. Two complementary experiments using two tree species (Eucalyptus globulus Labill. and Pinus radiata D. Don) with contrasting drought response strategies were performed to (i) assess changes in radial stem growth, transpiration, leaf water potential and gas exchange in response to chronic drought, and (ii) evaluate the concomitant impacts of these drought responses on the temporal patterns of NSC during terminal drought. The three distinct phases of water stress were delineated by thresholds of growth cessation and stomatal closure that defined the 'carbon safety margin' (i.e., the difference between leaf water potential when growth is zero and leaf water potential when net photosynthesis is zero). A wider C safety margin in E. globulus was defined by an earlier cessation of growth relative to photosynthesis that reduced the demand for NSC while maintaining C acquisition. By contrast, the narrower C safety margin in P. radiata was characterized by a synchronous decline in growth and photosynthesis, whereby growth continued under a declining supply of NSC from photosynthesis. The narrower C safety margin in P. radiata was associated with declines in starch concentrations after ∼ 90 days of chronic drought and significant depletion of starch in all organs at mortality. The observed divergence in the sensitivity of drought responses is indicative of a potential trade-off between maintaining hydraulic safety and adequate C availability.