Marine reserves are expected to benefit a wide range of species, but most models used to evaluate their effects assume that adults are sedentary, thereby potentially overestimating population persistence. Many nearshore marine organisms move within a home range as adults, and there is a need to understand the effects of this type of movement on reserve performance. We incorporated movement within a home range into a spatially explicit marine reserve model in order to assess the combined effects of adult and larval movement on persistence and yield in a general, strategic framework. We describe how the capacity of a population to persist decreased with increasing home range size in a manner that depended on whether the sedentary case was maintained by self persistence or network persistence. Self persistence declined gradually with increasing home range and larval dispersal distance, while network persistence decreased sharply to 0 above a threshold home range and was less dependent on larval dispersal distance. The maximum home range size protected by a reserve network increased with the fraction of coastline in reserves and decreasing exploitation rates outside reserves. Spillover due to movement within a home range contributed to yield moderately under certain conditions, although yield contributions were generally not as large as those from spillover due to larval dispersal. Our results indicate that, for species exhibiting home range behavior, persistence in a network of marine reserves may be more predictable than previously anticipated from models based solely on larval dispersal, in part due to better knowledge of home range sizes. Including movement within a home range can change persistence results significantly from those assuming that adults are sedentary; hence it is an important consideration in reserve design.

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Abstract. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are growing in popularity as a conservation tool, and there are increasing calls for additional MPAs. Meta-analyses indicate that most MPAs successfully meet the minimal goal of increasing biomass inside the MPA, while some do not, leaving open the important question of what makes MPAs successful. An oftenoverlooked aspect of this problem is that the success of fishery management outside MPA boundaries (i.e., whether a population is overfished) affects how well MPAs meet both conservation goals (e.g., increased biomass) and economic goals (e.g., minimal negative effects on fishery yield). Using a simple example of a system with homogeneous habitat and periodically spaced MPAs, we show that, as area in MPAs increases, (1) conservation value (biomass) may initially be zero, implying no benefit, then at some point increases monotonically; and (2) fishery yield may be zero, then increases monotonically to a maximum beyond which further increase in MPA area causes yield to decline. Importantly, the points at which these changes in slope occur vary among species and depend on management outside MPAs. Decision makers considering the effects of a potential system of MPAs on multiple species are confronted by a number of such cost-benefit curves, and it is usually impossible to maximize benefits and minimize costs for all species. Moreover, the precise shape of each curve is unknown due to uncertainty regarding the fishery status of each species. Here we describe a decision-analytic approach that incorporates existing information on fishery stock status to present decision makers with the range of likely outcomes of MPA implementation. To summarize results from many species whose overfishing status is uncertain, our decisionanalysis approach involves weighted averages over both overfishing uncertainty and species. In an example from an MPA decision process in California, USA, an optimistic projection of future fishery management success led to recommendation of fewer and smaller MPAs than that derived from a more pessimistic projection of future management success. This example illustrates how information on fishery status can be used to project potential outcomes of MPA implementation within a decision analysis framework and highlights the need for better population information.

A comparison of fisheries biological reference points estimated from temperature-specific multi-species and single-species climate-enhanced stock assessment models, Deep-Sea Research II, http://dx. ABSTRACTMulti-species statistical catch at age models (MSCAA) can quantify interacting effects of climate and fisheries harvest on species populations, and evaluate management trade-offs for fisheries that target several species in a food web. We modified an existing MSCAA model to include temperature-specific growth and predation rates and applied the modified model to three fish species, walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), from the eastern Bering Sea (USA). We fit the model to data from 1979 through 2012, with and without trophic interactions and temperature effects, and use projections to derive singleand multi-species biological reference points (BRP and MBRP, respectively) for fisheries management. The multi-species model achieved a higher over-all goodness of fit to the data (i.e. lower negative log-likelihood) for pollock and Pacific cod. Variability from water temperature typically resulted in 5-15% changes in spawning, survey, and total biomasses, but did not strongly impact recruitment estimates or mortality. Despite this, inclusion of temperature in projections did have a strong effect on BRPs, including recommended yield, which were higher in single-species models for Pacific cod and arrowtooth flounder that included temperature compared to the same models without temperature effects. While the temperature-driven multi-species model resulted in higher yield MBPRs for arrowtooth flounder than the same model without temperature, we did not observe the same patterns in multi-species models for pollock and Pacific cod, where variability between harvest scenarios and predation greatly exceeded temperature-driven variability in yield MBRPs. Annual predation on juvenile pollock (primarily cannibalism) in the multi-species model was 2-5 times the annual harvest of adult fish in the system, ͵ thus predators represent a strong control on population dynamics that exceeds temperature-driven changes to growth and is attenuated through harvest-driven reductions in predator populations. Additionally, although we observed differences in spawning biomasses at the accepted biological catch (ABC) proxy between harvest scenarios and single-and multi-species models, discrepancies in spawning stock biomass estimates did not translate to large differences in yield. We found that multi-species models produced higher estimates of combined yield for aggregate maximum sustainable yield (MSY) targets than single species models, but were more conservative than singlespecies models when individual MSY targets were used, with the exception of scenarios where minimum biomass thresholds were imposed. Collectively our results suggest that climate and trophic drivers can interact to affect MBRPs, but for prey species with high predation rates, trophic-and man...

Marine protected areas are being monitored to determine whether they increase abundance of fished populations, with responses often expected within a few years. Evaluations typically compare abundance inside versus outside or after versus before implementation, but the temporal and spatial scales over which these measures can reflect marine protected area success are untested. We modeled the response of fished populations for a range of marine protected area sizes, fishing intensities, larval dispersal distances, and adult movement ranges. Our results, which can inform experimental design and interpretation of monitoring, show that the spatial and temporal scale of population responses to marine protected areas will be determined by simple relationships between marine protected area size, larval and adult movement distances, and generation time, in addition to the effects of exploitation rate. The largest effects of marine protected areas should be expected with 'outside' samples located at least 2 dispersal units from the edge, and after 2 generations have passed since establishment. In general, monitoring studies over time (after versus before) should provide better assessment of marine protected area success than monitoring over space (inside versus outside), but understanding of the limitations of each type of measurement is key. Because it may take many years for marine protected area effects to be fully realized, we strongly caution against judgment of marine protected area effectiveness at inappropriately short time frames.

The case of fisheries management illustrates how the inherent structural instability of ecosystems can have deep-running policy implications. We contrast ten types of management plans to achieve maximum sustainable yields (MSY) from multiple stocks and compare their effectiveness based on a management strategy evaluation (MSE) that uses complex food webs in its operating model. Plans that target specific stock sizes (B MSY ) consistently led to higher yields than plans targeting specific fishing pressures (F MSY ). A new self-optimising control rule, introduced here for its robustness to structural instability, led to intermediate yields. Most plans outperformed single-species management plans with pressure targets set without considering multispecies interactions. However, more refined plans to "maximise the yield from each stock separately", in the sense of a Nash equilibrium, produced total yields comparable to plans aiming to maximise total harvested biomass, and were more robust to structural instability. Our analyses highlight trade-offs between yields, amenability to negotiations, pressures on biodiversity, and continuity with current approaches in the European context. Based on these results, we recommend directions for developments of EU fisheries policy.

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