Clouds persistently engulf many tropical mountains at elevations cool enough for clouds to form, creating isolated areas with frequent fog and mist. Under these isolated conditions, thousands of unique species have evolved in what are known as tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) and páramo. Páramo comprises a set of alpine ecosystems that occur above TMCF from about 11° N to 9° S along the Americas continental divide. TMCF occur on all continents and island chains with tropical climates and mountains and are increasingly threatened by climate and land-use change. Climate change could impact a primary feature distinguishing these ecosystems, cloud immersion. But where and in what direction cloud immersion of TMCF and páramo will change with climate are fundamental unknowns. Prior studies at a few TMCF sites suggest that cloud immersion will increase in some places while declining in others. Other unknowns include the extent of deforestation in protected and unprotected cloud forest climatic zones, and deforestation extent compared with projected climate change. Here we use a new empirical approach combining relative humidity, frost, and novel application of maximum watershed elevation to project change in TMCF and páramo for Representative greenhouse gas emissions Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Results suggest that in <25–45 yr, 70–86% of páramo will dry or be subject to tree invasion, and cloud immersion declines will shrink or dry 57–80% of Neotropical TMCF, including 100% of TMCF across Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, much of Northern South America, and parts of Southeast Brazil. These estimates rise to 86% of Neotropical TMCF and 98% of páramo in <45–65 yr if greenhouse gas emissions continue rising throughout the 21 st century. We also find that TMCF zones are largely forested, but some of the most deforested areas will undergo the least climate change. We project that cloud immersion will increase for only about 1% of all TMCF and in only a few places. Declines in cloud immersion dominate TMCF change across the Neotropics.

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Given the wide geographic scope of the seed sources and the uniformity of resources in the seedlings' environment, observed differences in alkaloid concentrations are evidence for genetic regulation of alkaloid secondary metabolism in ponderosa pine. The theoretical trade-off with seedling growth appeared to be real, however slight. The climate variables provided little evidence for adaptive alkaloid variation, especially within regions.

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Our objective was to evaluate piperidine alkaloids as potential resistance factors in Sitka spruce, Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr, at risk to attack by white pine weevils, Pissodes strobi (Peck). We sampled 72 seedlings in each of two replicated field trials in the Oregon Coast Range. The seedlings were grown from open-pollinated seeds of putatively "resistant" or "susceptible" off-site parental sources. Alkaloid concentrations in bark and foliage were measured in previously unattacked trees at the time of weevil host selection. Leader mortality was evaluated in the fall to gauge actual resistance in the sample trees. Five families had < or = 25% topkill and seven sustained >50% topkill. Alkaloid concentrations differed significantly among families, but the major alkaloids did not appear to be functionally linked with topkill or useful indicators of resistance. However, our study design did not address all potential resistance mechanisms. Therefore, before concluding that Sitka spruce alkaloids have no influence on white pine weevils, complementary laboratory and field experiments are needed.

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