Date of publication xxxx xx, xxxx, date of current version xxxx xx, xxxx.
The dynamics of power consumption constitutes an essential building block for planning and operating sustainable energy systems. Whereas variations in the dynamics of renewable energy generation are reasonably well studied, a deeper understanding of the variations in consumption dynamics is still missing. Here, we analyse highly resolved residential electricity consumption data of Austrian, German and UK households and propose a generally applicable data-driven load model. Specifically, we disentangle the average demand profiles from the demand fluctuations based purely on time series data. We introduce a stochastic model to quantitatively capture the highly intermittent demand fluctuations. Thereby, we offer a better understanding of demand dynamics, in particular its fluctuations, and provide general tools for disentangling mean demand and fluctuations for any given system, going beyond the standard load profile (SLP). Our insights on the demand dynamics may support planning and operating future-compliant (micro) grids in maintaining supply-demand balance.
We simulate the 3D ozone distribution of a tidally locked Earth-like exoplanet using the high-resolution, 3D chemistryclimate model CESM1(WACCM) and study how the ozone layer of a tidally locked Earth (TLE) (� TLE = 1/365 days) differs from that of our present-day Earth (PDE) (� PDE = 1/1 day). The middle atmosphere reaches a steady state asymptotically within the first 80 days of the simulation. An upwelling, centred on the subsolar point, is present on the day side while a downwelling, centred on the antisolar point, is present on the night side. In the mesosphere, we find similar global ozone distributions for the TLE and the PDE, with decreased ozone on the day side and enhanced ozone on the night side. In the lower mesosphere, a jet stream transitions into a large-scale vortex around a low-pressure system, located at low latitudes of the TLE night side. In the middle stratosphere, the concentration of odd oxygen is approximately equal to that of the ozone [(O x ) ≈ (O 3 )]. At these altitudes, the lifetime of odd oxygen is ∼16 h and the transport processes significantly contribute to the global distribution of stratospheric ozone. Compared to the PDE, where the strong Coriolis force acts as a mixing barrier between low and high latitudes, the transport processes of the TLE are governed by jet streams variable in the zonal and meridional directions. In the middle stratosphere of the TLE, we find high ozone values on the day side, due to the increased production of atomic oxygen on the day side, where it immediately recombines with molecular oxygen to form ozone. In contrast, the ozone is depleted on the night side, due to changes in the solar radiation distribution and the presence of a downwelling. As a result of the reduced Coriolis force, the tropical and extratropical air masses are well mixed and the global temperature distribution of the TLE stratosphere has smaller horizontal gradients than the PDE. Compared to the PDE, the total ozone column global mean is reduced by ∼19.3 %. The day side and the night side total ozone column means are reduced by 23.21 and 15.52 %, respectively. Finally, we present the total ozone column (TOC) maps as viewed by a remote observer for four phases of the TLE during its revolution around the star. The mean TOC values of the four phases of the TLE vary by up to 23 %.
We investigate the influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the middle atmosphere of a tidally locked Earth-like planet orbiting a G star using the coupled 3D chemistry-climate model CESM1(WACCM). We perform three 90 day simulations. The first simulation is a present-day Earth (PDE) simulation, the second is a simulation of a tidally locked Earth-like planet with a tidally locked aquaplanet sea surface temperature (cold TLE (CLTE)) and the third is a hybrid simulation of a tidally locked Earth-like planet with a present-day Earth sea surface temperature (warm TLE (WTLE)). Our results show that changes in the SST have an influence on the lower stratospheric temperature and the secondary ozone layer. Both atmospheres exhibit a dayside upwelling and a nightside downwelling extending from the surface to the mesosphere. They are also characterised by comparable lower and middle stratospheric horizontal winds and relatively different mesospheric horizontal winds. The temperature of the WTLE atmosphere is altered as a result of the SST changes, compared to the CTLE. Specifically, the WTLE lower tropospheric temperature is increased by 3.7 K on average, due to the absorption of the increased upwelling longwave radiation and the increased sensible and latent heat. The WTLE upper troposphere temperature is decreased by 4 K on average, is adiabatic in nature, and is generated by the increased WTLE upwelling. The WLTE lower stratospheric temperature is increased by 3.8 K on average due to the absorption of the increased upwelling longwave radiation. The lower mesospheric temperature is decreased by 1.13 K on average due to increased mesospheric wave breaking. The upper mesospheric temperature is increased by 4.3 K, and its generation mechanism is currently unknown. Furthermore, the secondary ozone volume mixing ratio is increased by 40.5 %. The occurrence of large-scale vortices and variable jet streams depends, to some extent, on the SST distribution.
The climate model CESM-WACCM is used to study the way a soil colour change of the eastern region of the Sahara affects the dynamics of the troposphere. The soil colour is darkened for 5 days. The difference between the perturbed model run and the control model run is used to isolate the soil colour change-induced atmospheric perturbation from random atmospheric waves which are stronger by an order of magnitude or more. The perturbation generates a circular wave radially propagating away from the Sahara on the first day of the simulation. After nine hours, the wave front reaches the convection zone in Brazil where a secondary wave is generated and can be clearly seen until 23:00 UT. The mean wave velocities of the traveling atmospheric disturbances are v = 200 ± 50 m/s for the primary wave and v = 220 ± 40 m/s for the secondary wave. The mean horizontal wavelengths are λ = 3000 ± 500 km for the primary wave and λ = 2600 ± 600 km for the secondary wave. The mean wave periods are p = 4 ± 1 h for the primary wave and p = 3 ± 1 h for the secondary wave. Since the perturbed model run diverges from the control run with the passage of time, the attribution of cause and effect becomes difficult after a few days. Analysis of the simulation data of the first day leads to a deeper understanding of global teleconnections, radiative transfer and wave-coupling processes between the surface and the atmospheric layers.
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