Assessing multiple climatic and non-climatic variables affecting one region at the same time is a crucial aspect to support climate adaptation action. This publication presents a method to display relevant measures of any three adaptation relevant parameters (or optionally their projected future changes) at once on a map by allocating them to multiple transparency levels of the three primary colors of additive color mixing (red, green, and blue). The overlay of information allows the combined assessment of the regional exposures. The method is demonstrated by two examples based on an ensemble of regional climate projections analyzed for 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming periods. The first example shows the increasing number of people at risk for summer climate extremes under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming by combining projected increases in tropical nights and summer intense precipitation days with today's population density. Under 3°C global warming, many heavily populated areas across Europe are affected by both heat stress and summer precipitation extremes, whereas under 1.5°C global warming, heat stress regions are restricted to southern Europe and the large settlements along the Eastern Mediterranean coast. A second example combines daily mean and minimum and maximum summer temperatures and highlights the regional expansion and the increasing robustness of projected mean summer warming with rising global warming levels, as well as the regional day to night differences of the warming signal.
ZusammenfassungDie Ergebnisse regionaler Klimaprojektionen für Deutschland weisen auf eine Zunahme der mittleren Lufttemperatur und eine innerjährliche Verschiebung der Niederschläge – mit feuchteren Wintern und trockeneren Sommern – hin. Darüber hinaus werden sich regional die Häufigkeit, Intensität und Dauer von Hitzewellen, Trockenperioden und Starkregenereignissen weiter erhöhen. Durch diese Veränderungen wird sich auch der Jahresgang der Grundwasserneubildung ändern. Als Folge dessen können sich Änderungen bei den hohen, mittleren und tiefen Grundwasserständen, Grundwasserschwankungsbreiten und dem Grundwasserdargebot ergeben. Aber nicht nur die Ressource Grundwasser wird durch die Folgen des Klimawandels betroffen. Auch die gesamte Infrastruktur – von der Förderung bis zur Verteilungsleitung zum Kunden – kann beeinträchtigt werden. Neben den direkten Einflüssen sind auch indirekte Beeinflussungen durch Kaskadeneffekte – beispielsweise ausgehend vom Energiesektor – möglich. Darum gilt es integrative, ganzheitliche und systemische Lösungen zu erarbeiten, um die Funktionalität der kritischen Infrastruktur dauerhaft auch unter Berücksichtigung der Folgen des Klimawandels gewährleisten zu können.
<p>We present the interactive web application GCMeval, available at https://gcmeval.met.no. The tool is a useful resource for climate services by illustrating how model selection affects representation of future climate change. GCMeval was developed in a co-design process engaging users. Based on a thorough analysis of user demands, needs and capabilities, two different user groups were defined: Data users with lots of experience with data processing and Product users with a strong focus on information products. The available data, information, and user interface in GCMeval are tailored to the requirements of the data users.</p><p>In the tool, the user can select all or a subset of models from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and assign weights to different regions, seasons, climate variables, and skill scores. The tool provides visualizations of the spread of future changes in temperature and precipitation which allows the user to study how the sub-ensemble fits in relation to the full multi-model ensemble and to compare climate model results for different regions of the world. A ranking of individual model performance for recent past climate is also provided. The tool can be used to aid in model selection for climate or impact studies, or to illustrate how an already existing selection represents the range of possible future climate outcomes.</p>
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