According to the official Institute of Tourist Studies, the Balearic Islands, a Spanish region with just over one million inhabitants, received 9.6 million international arrivals in 2005 out of 55.8 million for the entire country. Although a rather impressive figure, it is 8.2% below the 10.5 million recorded in 1999, which might partially explain why the Balearic Islands has recorded the worst growth performance of all 17 autonomous Spanish regions since 2000. A look at the 1997 regional input-output table confirms the Balearic Islands as a service-oriented economy highly specialized in the production of services for tourists. The main purpose of this paper is to provide the first assessment of the impact of tourism in the Balearic Islands using input-output techniques and several alternative assumptions on endogeneity of final demand components. The paper also estimates, under the same assumptions, the effects on the economy of a 10% fall in tourist flows. Finally, the results are compared with those obtained with a social accounting matrix model.
Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation play a crucial role on tourism flows worldwide. This places tourism at the forefront of the economic sectors to be affected by climate change. In this article, we address the impacts of climate change on the arrivals of inbound tourists to Portugal, a south European country where tourism is a core economic sector. The economic dimension of the impacts, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, is then assessed. This is achieved by combining a world gravity model of tourism flows with an input–output model. The results show that under standard climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Portugal will experience a significant increase in temperature leading to a decrease of inbound tourism arrivals between 2.5% and 5.2%. This decrease in tourist arrivals is expected to reduce Portuguese GDP between 0.19% and 0.40%.
A look at the 1997 input-output table shows the Balearic Islands as a service-oriented economy, highly specialized in the production of services for tourists. The main goal of this article is to evaluate with alternative multisectoral models the impact on the Balearic Islands economy of a 10 percent permanent fall in tourism demand. First, we estimate the impact of the reduction in nonresident consumption using a rather standard input-output model. Then, we estimate its effects using an extended general linear model implemented with a social accounting matrix elaborated by the authors. Finally, we use an applied (computable) general equilibrium model using alternative closure rules to those encountered in other regional studies.
†Tourism Facilities Development Officer, Kenya Wildlife Service, Nairobi, Kenya As in many other developing countries, tourism is one of the key drivers of Kenya's socioeconomic development. At independence in 1963, Kenya depended mainly on its exports of agricultural products such as coffee and tea for foreign exchange. However, with the decline in world market prices of these primary products, the country has turned to tourism as an alternative. In spite of the growing importance of tourism as a key industry, little information is available on the holistic economic impacts and the pathways through which these impacts are affected in the Kenyan economy. Without information on how tourism as a complex industry is linked to the other sectors of the economy, policy makers will be at a loss on how to effectively stimulate its growth, develop capacity, and enhance its positive impacts. This research proposes to use data from the Kenya Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2001 to examine the impact of tourism on production, value added, and employment. From the complete SAM model, whose exogenous components include government, international trade, and saving-investment accounts, you need 9.63% of total production, 6.70% of employment, and 10.57% of value added to satisfy the export for other private services. These results indicate that the private services sector in general and tourism in particular is an important economic activity with potential to play an even bigger role in spurring output, incomes, and creating employment. The enhancement of the tourism sector's backward linkages with the extractive sectors, equipping manpower with skills required for better employment positions, increasing the share of local ownership in the service sector, and the diversification of tourism attractions would be helpful policies to leverage tourism's potential.
The work emphasizes the importance of measuring the tourist intensity of the economies that are oriented to tourism activity, with the aim of avoiding subjective arguments and being more related to perception than with the empirical contrast of the data. A tourist intensity index is proposed, which is made up of four essential variables: GDP, tourist spending, population, and the number of tourists. However, at the same time, it is complemented by a measure of tourist density, which helps to better understand the proposed index. This allows for the classification of countries according to the resulting index, and to calibrate their position in the set of tourist economies. This can be very useful for the application of economic policies aimed at correcting externalities that are generated in the advanced development of mass tourism.
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