In 1921, when he was 39 years of age, Franklin Delano Roosevelt contracted an illness characterized by: fever; protracted symmetric, ascending paralysis; facial paralysis; bladder and bowel dysfunction; numbness; and dysaesthesia. The symptoms gradually resolved except for paralysis of the lower extremities. The diagnosis at the onset of the illness and thereafter was paralytic poliomyelitis. Yet his age and many features of the illness are more consistent with a diagnosis of Guillain-Barré syndrome, an autoimmune polyneuritis. The likelihoods (posterior probabilities) of poliomyelitis and Guillain-Barré syndrome were investigated by Bayesian analysis. Posterior probabilities were calculated by multiplying the prior probability (disease incidence in Roosevelt's age group) by the symptom probability (likelihood of a symptom occurring in a disease). Six of eight posterior probabilities strongly favoured Guillain-Barré syndrome.

The rather widely held belief that systemic arterial hypertension is a major factor either in the genesis of saccular aneurysms or in their subsequent rupture is questioned on the basis of our clinical and pathological analysis of 250 patients with aneurysms. Analysis of 150 patients with ruptured and 100 patients with unruptured saccular aneurysms for clinical and morphologic evidence of hypertension revealed no notable excess over an age- and sex-matched control autopsy population. There is no evident association of hypertension with multiplicity of aneurysms, the age at which aneurysms present clinically, or with their rupture. All available data clearly indicate that saccular aneurysms can arise in the absence of fixed arterial hypertension and that they can also rupture in the absence of fixed hypertension.

In 2003, we published evidence that the most likely cause of FDR's 1921 neurological disease was Guillain-Barré syndrome. Afterwards, several historians and neurologists stated in their publications that FDR had paralytic poliomyelitis. However, significant criticism of our article or new support for that diagnosis was not revealed. One critic claimed that FDR's cerebrospinal fluid indicated poliomyelitis, but we did not find evidence that a lumbar puncture was performed. The diagnosis of FDR's neurological disease still depends upon documented clinical abnormalities. His age, prolonged symmetric ascending paralysis, transient numbness, protracted dysaesthesia (pain on slight touch), facial paralysis, bladder and bowel dysfunction, and absence of meningismus are typical of Guillain-Barré syndrome and are inconsistent with paralytic poliomyelitis. FDR's prolonged fever was atypical for both diseases. Finally, permanent paralysis, though commoner in paralytic poliomyelitis, is frequent in Guillain-Barré syndrome. Thus, the clinical findings indicate the most likely diagnosis in FDR's case remains Guillain-Barré syndrome.

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