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In a changing environment, there is an increasing interest to monitor ecosystems to understand their responses to environmental change. Seagrass meadows are highly important ecosystems that are under constant pressure from human activities and climate impacts, with marked declines observed worldwide. Despite increasing efforts, monitoring of multispecific tropical seagrass meadows is scarce, particularly in low-income regions. Based on data from a monitoring programme in a marine protected area in Zanzibar (Tanzania), we assessed temporal changes in seagrass cover and species composition during a 10-year period in relation to local variability in environmental variables. We observed a strong, gradual decline in seagrass cover and changes in species composition, followed by a period of recovery. However, the timing and length of these temporal patterns varied in space (between transects). Multiple environmental variables—cloud cover, temperature, storm occurrence, sunspot activity, and tidal amplitude and height—influenced seagrass cover, although only to a minor extent, suggesting that the monitored seagrass meadow may be influenced by other unmeasured factors (e.g. water currents and sediment movement). Our results show that seagrass meadows can be highly dynamic at small (10–50 m) spatial scales, even in the absence of major local anthropogenic impacts. Our findings suggest that high-resolution monitoring programmes can be highly valuable for the detection of temporal changes in multispecific seagrass meadows; however, to understand the causes of change, there is a need of long-term (> 10 years) data series that include direct measurements of environmental variables and extreme events.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s10661-019-7977-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been shown to increase long-term temporal stability of fish communities and enhance ecosystem resilience to anthropogenic disturbance. Yet, the potential ability of MPAs to buffer effects of environmental variability at shorter time scales remains widely unknown. In the tropics, the yearly monsoon cycle is a major natural force affecting marine organisms in tropical regions, and its timing and severity are predicted to change over the coming century, with potentially severe effects on marine organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem services. Here, we assessed the ability of MPAs to buffer effects of monsoon seasonality on seagrass-associated fish communities, using a field survey in two MPAs (no-take zones) and two unprotected (open-access) sites around Zanzibar (Tanzania). We assessed the temporal stability of fish density and community structure within and outside MPAs during three monsoon seasons in 2014–2015, and investigated several possible mechanisms that could regulate temporal stability. Our results show that MPAs did not affect fish density and diversity, but that juvenile fish densities were temporally more stable within MPAs. Second, fish community structure was more stable within MPAs for juvenile and adult fish, but not for subadult fish or the total fish community. Third, the observed effects may be due to a combination of direct and indirect (seagrass-mediated) effects of seasonality and, potentially, fluctuating fishing pressure outside MPAs. In summary, these MPAs may not have the ability to enhance fish density and diversity and to buffer effects of monsoon seasonality on the whole fish community. However, they may increase the temporal stability of certain groups, such as juvenile fish. Consequently, our results question whether MPAs play a general role in the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under changing environmental conditions in tropical seagrass fish communities.

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