Research points to several determinants of the private demand for higher education, which include individual, social, economic, and institutional variables. Of these variables, economic factors are considered to be highly relevant, especially in the current financial crisis. The paper investigates the link between expected rates of return to higher education and the intention of secondary education graduates to pursue university studies. The effect of additional variables influencing the choice of higher education (ability, gender, socioeconomic status [SES], type of secondary school, area of residence) is also examined. The findings show a significant link between the perceived rates of return and the intention of secondary school graduates to enter tertiary education. With the exception of residence, all independent variables are strong determinants of the intention to enter higher education. The paper also points to the considerable effect of the financial crisis on students' expectations in that respondents reported lower perceived rates of return compared to previous estimates in the same country. The implications of the findings for higher education policy are discussed.
ARTICLE HISTORYKEYWORDS demand for higher education; influences on university participation; human capital; rate of return
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.