No abstract

No abstract

Plant phenology is changing because of recent global warming, and this change may precipitate changes in animal distribution (e.g., pests), alter the synchronization between species, and have feedback effects on the climate system through the alteration of biogeochemical and physical processes of vegetated land surface. Here, ground observations (leaf unfolding/first leaf separation of six deciduous tree species) and satellite-derived start-of-growing season (SOS) are used to assess how the timing of leafing/SOS in Western European deciduous forest responded to climate variability between 2001 and 2011 and evaluate the reliability of satellite SOS estimates in tracking the response of forest leafing to climate variability in this area. Satellite SOS estimates are derived from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Temporal trends in the SOS are quantified using linear regression, expressing SOS as a function of time. We demonstrated that the growing season was starting earlier between 2001 and 2011 for the majority of temperate deciduous forests in Western Europe, possibly influenced by regional spring warming effects experienced during the same period. A significant shift of up to 3 weeks to early leafing was found in both ground observations and satellite SOS estimates. We also show that the magnitude and trajectory of shifts in satellite SOS estimates are well comparable to that of in situ observations, hence highlighting the importance of satellite imagery in monitoring leaf phenology under a changing climate.

Fire use for land management is widespread in natural tropical and plantation forests, causing major environmental and economic damage. Recent studies combining active fire alerts with annual forest-cover loss information identified fire-related forest-cover loss areas well, but do not provide detailed understanding on how fires and forest-cover loss are temporally related. Here, we combine Sentinel-1-based, near real-time forest cover information with Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fire alerts, and for the first time, characterize the temporal relationship between fires and tropical forest-cover loss at high temporal detail and medium spatial scale. We quantify fire-related forest-cover loss and separate fires that predate, coincide with, and postdate forest-cover loss. For the Province of Riau, Indonesia, dense Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar data with guaranteed observations of at least every 12 days allowed for confident and timely forest-cover-loss detection in natural and plantation forest with user's and producer's accuracy above 95%. Forest-cover loss was detected and confirmed within 22 days in natural forest and within 15 days in plantation forest. This difference can primarily be related to different change processes and dynamics in natural and plantation forest. For the period between 1 January 2016 and 30 June 2017, fire-related forest-cover loss accounted for about one third of the natural forest-cover loss, while in plantation forest, less than ten percent of the forest-cover loss was fire-related. We found clear spatial patterns of fires predating, coinciding with, or postdating forest-cover loss. Only the minority of fires in natural and plantation forest temporally coincided with forest-cover loss (13% and 16%) and can thus be confidently attributed as direct cause of forest-cover loss. The majority of the fires predated (64% and 58%) or postdated forest-cover loss (23% and 26%), and should be attributed to other key land management practices. Detailed and timely information on how fires and forest cover loss are temporally related can support tropical forest management, policy development, and law enforcement to reduce unsustainable and illegal fire use in the tropics. fires in Indonesia are human-induced, and only very few are natural [5,8]. While prohibited by law, fire use is widespread in both industrial and small holder plantations (e.g., palm oil) and are often used to expand cultivatable land [5,9,10]. Fire is used for a diversity of land management practices and its temporal relationship with forest-cover loss can vary largely [8,11,12]. While some fires predate forest-cover loss and are used, for example, to remove forest understory to allow access for later harvesting operations, some fires coincide with forest-cover loss or are lit to directly clear the forest. Others postdate forest-cover loss and are used to prepare already cleared land for cultivation [9,[12][13][14]. Consistent information on the temporal relationship between fires and forest-...

No abstract

Current research on forest change monitoring using medium spatial resolution Landsat satellite data aims for accurate and timely detection of forest disturbances. However, producing forest disturbance maps that have both high spatial and temporal accuracy is still challenging because of the trade-off between spatial and temporal accuracy. Timely detection of forest disturbance is often accompanied by many false detections, and existing approaches for reducing false detections either compromise the temporal accuracy or amplify the omission error for forest disturbances. Here, we propose to use a set of space-time features to reduce false detections. We first detect potential forest disturbances in the Landsat time series based on two consecutive negative anomalies, and subsequently use space-time features to confirm forest disturbances. A probability threshold is used to discriminate false detections from forest disturbances. We demonstrated this approach in the UNESCO Kafa Biosphere Reserve located in the southwest of Ethiopia by detecting forest disturbances between 2014 and 2016. Our results show that false detections are reduced significantly without compromising temporal accuracy. The user's accuracy was at least 26% higher than the user's accuracies obtained when using only temporal information (e.g., two consecutive negative anomalies) to confirm forest disturbances. We found the space-time features related to change in spatio-temporal variability, and spatio-temporal association with non-forest areas, to be the main predictors for forest disturbance. The magnitude of change and two consecutive negative anomalies, which are widely used to distinguish real changes from false detections, were not the main predictors for forest disturbance. Overall, our findings indicate that using a set of space-time features to confirm forest disturbances increases the capacity to reject many false detections, without compromising the temporal accuracy.

No abstract

Current methods for monitoring deforestation from satellite data at sub-annual scales require pixel time series to have many historical observations in the reference period to model normal forest dynamics before detecting deforestation. However, in some areas, pixel time series often do not have many historical observations. Detecting deforestation at a pixel with scarce historical observations can be improved by complementing the pixel time series with spatial context information. In this work, we propose a data-driven space-time change detection method that detects deforestation events at sub-annual scales in data cubes of satellite image time series. First we spatially normalised observations in the local space-time data cube to reduce seasonality. Subsequently, we detected deforestation by assessing whether a newly acquired observation in the monitoring period is an extreme when compared against spatially normalised values in a local space-time data cube defined over reference period. We demonstrated our method at two sites, a dry tropical Bolivian forest and a humid tropical Brazilian forest, by varying the spatial and temporal extent of data cube. We emulated a "near real-time" monitoring scenario, implying that observations in the monitoring period were sequentially rather than simultaneously assessed for deforestation. Using Landsat normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series, we achieved a median temporal detection delay of less than three observations, a producer's accuracy above 70%, a user's accuracy above 65%, and an overall accuracy above 80% at both sites, even when the reference period of the data cube only contained one year of data. Our results also show that large percentile thresholds (e.g., 5th percentile) achieve higher producer's accuracy and shorter temporal detection delay, whereas smaller percentiles (e.g., 0.1 percentile) achieve higher user's accuracy, but longer temporal detection delay. The method is data-driven, not based on statistical assumption on the data distribution, and can be applied on different forest types. However, it may face challenges in mixed forests where, for example, deciduous and evergreen forests coexist within short distances. A pixel to be assessed for deforestation should have a minimum of three temporal observations, the first of which must be known to represent forest. Such short time series allow rapid deployment of newly launched sensors (e.g., Sentinel-2) for detecting deforestation events at sub-annual scales.