Deep learning models based on medical images play an increasingly important role for cancer outcome prediction. The standard approach involves usage of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to automatically extract relevant features from the patient’s image and perform a binary classification of the occurrence of a given clinical endpoint. In this work, a 2D-CNN and a 3D-CNN for the binary classification of distant metastasis (DM) occurrence in head and neck cancer patients were extended to perform time-to-event analysis. The newly built CNNs incorporate censoring information and output DM-free probability curves as a function of time for every patient. In total, 1037 patients were used to build and assess the performance of the time-to-event model. Training and validation was based on 294 patients also used in a previous benchmark classification study while for testing 743 patients from three independent cohorts were used. The best network could reproduce the good results from 3-fold cross validation [Harrell’s concordance indices (HCIs) of 0.78, 0.74 and 0.80] in two out of three testing cohorts (HCIs of 0.88, 0.67 and 0.77). Additionally, the capability of the models for patient stratification into high and low-risk groups was investigated, the CNNs being able to significantly stratify all three testing cohorts. Results suggest that image-based deep learning models show good reliability for DM time-to-event analysis and could be used for treatment personalisation.
Objective: Gated beam delivery is the current clinical practice for respiratory motion compensation in MR-guided radiotherapy, and further research is ongoing to implement tracking. To manage intra-fractional motion using multileaf collimator (MLC) tracking the total system latency needs to be accounted for in real-time. In this study, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks were optimized for the prediction of superior-inferior tumor centroid positions extracted from clinically acquired 2D cine MRIs. Approach: We used 88 patients treated at the University Hospital of the LMU Munich for training and validation (70 patients, 13.1 hours), and for testing (18 patients, 3.0 hours). Three patients treated at Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli were used as a second testing set (1.5 hours). The performance of the LSTMs in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) was compared to baseline linear regression (LR) models for forecasted time spans of 250 ms, 500 ms and 750 ms. Both the LSTM and the LR were trained with offline (offline LSTM and offline LR) and online schemes (offline+online LSTM and online LR), the latter to allow for continuous adaptation to recent respiratory patterns. Main results: We found the offline+online LSTM to perform best for all investigated forecasts. Specifically, when predicting 500 ms ahead it achieved a mean RMSE of 1.20 mm and 1.00 mm, while the best performing LR model achieved a mean RMSE of 1.42 mm and 1.22 mm for the LMU and Gemelli testing set, respectively. Significance: This indicates that LSTM networks have potential as respiratory motion predictors and that continuous online re-optimization can enhance their performance.
Purpose18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) is utilized for staging and treatment planning of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC). Some older publications on the prognostic relevance showed inconclusive results, most probably due to small study sizes. This study evaluates the prognostic and potentially predictive value of FDG-PET in a large multi-center analysis.MethodsOriginal analysis of individual FDG-PET and patient data from 16 international centers (8 institutional datasets, 8 public repositories) with 1104 patients. All patients received curative intent radiotherapy/chemoradiation (CRT) and pre-treatment FDG-PET imaging. Primary tumors were semi-automatically delineated for calculation of SUVmax, SUVmean, metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). Cox regression analyses were performed for event-free survival (EFS), overall survival (OS), loco-regional control (LRC) and freedom from distant metastases (FFDM).ResultsFDG-PET parameters were associated with patient outcome in the whole cohort regarding clinical endpoints (EFS, OS, LRC, FFDM), in uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Several previously published cut-off values were successfully validated. Subgroup analyses identified tumor- and human papillomavirus (HPV) specific parameters. In HPV positive oropharynx cancer (OPC) SUVmax was well suited to identify patients with excellent LRC for organ preservation. Patients with SUVmax of 14 or less were unlikely to develop loco-regional recurrence after definitive CRT. In contrast FDG PET parameters deliver only limited prognostic information in laryngeal cancer.ConclusionFDG-PET parameters bear considerable prognostic value in HNSCC and potential predictive value in subgroups of patients, especially regarding treatment de-intensification and organ-preservation. The potential predictive value needs further validation in appropriate control groups. Further research on advanced imaging approaches including radiomics or artificial intelligence methods should implement the identified cut-off values as benchmark routine imaging parameters.
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