a b s t r a c tThe construction and subsequent analysis of scenarios using energy systems models is an essential tool in energy policy making. This paper presents two descriptive scenarios for the development of the UK energy system to 2050, using four subsequent decadal time-slices. The two scenarios, K Scenario and Z Scenario, were modelled with the use of the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) 2050 Pathways Calculator. K Scenario is a scenario in which the use fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are prominent in the power sector, while Z Scenario focuses on the development of renewables with energy storage and nuclear power. Both scenarios seek to achieve the UK's legally binding target of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. Abatement is achieved through numerous developments in each of the scenarios, including the development and use of shale gas, hydrogen, additional wind and solar deployment, the expansion of bioenergy and use of carbon capture and storage (CCS). These developments must be driven by policies designed to pursue dramatic decarbonisation.
A techno-economic evaluation of different energy scenarios under the Energy Trilemma Index for the island of Crete A high spatio-temporal resolution analysis was performed No Business as Usual Scenario that relies on oil-fired generators could facilitate a future solution for Crete and similar small islands across Europe The optimum scenario incorporates interconnectors and energy storage systems
Interconnections' infrastructure is considered fundamental to implement the common rules for the internal electricity market according to 2009/72/EU. Greece currently consists of 29 non-interconnected island systems, experiencing frequent forced outages and high generation costs. A number of interconnection plans are in the pipeline between the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea archipelago and the Greek bulk continental grid. This paper investigates interconnection scenarios and their impact in terms of security of supply, costs and renewable energy integration into the system. PLEXOS® Simulation Software by Energy Exemplar is used to simulate the Greek electricity system. The results show a twofold growth of renewables share between 2020 and 2040 while electricity generation costs recorded on the non-interconnected islands mirror continental costs following the grid extensions. Loss of load probability and unserved energy are eliminated, whilst greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 73% (vs 1990) in 2040. Keywords-submarine interconnections, isolated power systems, renewable energy, transmission extensions, long term scenario analysis, mixed integer linear programming NOMENCLATURE c unit Cc capacity outage (MW) ERi forecasting error rate Fd (InCap-Cc) value of the built load duration curve at demand equal to InCap-Cc Fy probability that a capacity outage Cc, happens i type of RES technology InCap installed capacity for the region LOLP loss of load probability Lt load attributed to touristic activities Lp load attributed to local population activities Lpf load participation factor Wf(p) population weight factor Wf(t) tourism weight factor
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