There is a clinical need to predict sensitivity of metastatic hormone receptor-positive and HER2-negative (HR+/HER2−) breast cancer to endocrine therapy, and targeted RNA sequencing (RNAseq) offers diagnostic potential to measure both transcriptional activity and functional mutation. We developed the SET ER/PR index to measure gene expression microarray probe sets that were correlated with hormone receptors ( ESR1 and PGR ) and robust to preanalytical and analytical influences. We tested SET ER/PR index in biopsies of metastastic HR+/HER2− breast cancer against the treatment outcomes in 140 patients. Then we customized the SET ER/PR assay to measure 18 informative, 10 reference transcripts, and sequence the ligand-binding domain (LBD) of ESR1 using droplet-based targeted RNAseq, and tested that in residual RNA from 53 patients. Higher SET ER/PR index in metastatic samples predicted longer PFS and OS when patients received endocrine therapy as next treatment, even after adjustment for clinical-pathologic risk factors (PFS: HR 0.534, 95% CI 0.299 to 0.955, p = 0.035; OS: HR 0.315, 95% CI 0.157 to 0.631, p = 0.001). Mutated ESR1 LBD was detected in 8/53 (15%) of metastases, involving 1−98% of ESR1 transcripts (all had high SET ER/PR index). A signature based on probe sets with good preanalytical and analytical performance facilitated our customization of an accurate targeted RNAseq assay to measure both phenotype and genotype of ER-related transcription. Elevated SET ER/PR was associated with prolonged sensitivity to endocrine therapy in patients with metastatic HR+/HER2− breast cancer, especially in the absence of mutated ESR1 transcript.

CONTEXT Accurate prediction of who will (or won’t) have high probability of survival benefit from standard treatments is fundamental for individualized cancer treatment strategies. OBJECTIVE To develop a predictor of response and survival from chemotherapy for newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer. DESIGN Development of different predictive signatures for resistance and response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (stratified according to estrogen receptor (ER) status) from gene expression microarrays of newly diagnosed breast cancer (310 patients). Then prediction of breast cancer treatment-sensitivity using the combination of signatures for: 1) sensitivity to endocrine therapy, 2) chemo-resistance, and 3) chemo-sensitivity. Independent validation (198 patients) and comparison with other reported genomic predictors of chemotherapy response. SETTING Prospective multicenter study to develop and test genomic predictors for neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PATIENTS Newly diagnosed HER2-negative breast cancer treated with chemotherapy containing sequential taxane and anthracycline-based regimens then endocrine therapy (if hormone receptor-positive). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Distant relapse-free survival (DRFS) if predicted treatment-sensitive and absolute risk reduction (ARR, difference in DRFS of the two predicted groups) at median follow-up (3 years), and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS Patients in the independent validation cohort (99% clinical Stage II–III) who were predicted to be treatment-sensitive (28% of total) had DRFS of 92% (CI 85–100) and survival benefit compared to others (absolute risk reduction (ARR) 18%; CI 6–28). Predictions were accurate if breast cancer was ER-positive (30% predicted sensitive, DRFS 97%, CI 91–100; ARR 11%, CI 0.1–21) or ER-negative (26% predicted sensitive, DRFS 83%, CI 68–100; ARR 26%, CI 4–28), and were significant in multivariate analysis after adjusting for relevant clinical-pathologic characteristics. Other genomic predictors showed paradoxically worse survival if predicted to be responsive to chemotherapy. CONCLUSION A genomic predictor combining ER status, predicted chemo-resistance, predicted chemo-sensitivity, and predicted endocrine sensitivity accurately identified patients with survival benefit following taxane-anthracycline chemotherapy.

The detection of CTCs prior to and during therapy is an independent and strong prognostic marker, and it is predictive of poor treatment outcome. A major challenge is that different technologies are available for isolation and characterization of CTCs in peripheral blood (PB). We compare the CellSearch system and AdnaTest BreastCancer Select/Detect, to evaluate the extent that these assays differ in their ability to detect CTCs in the PB of MBC patients. CTCs in 7.5 ml of PB were isolated and enumerated using the CellSearch, before new treatment. Two cutoff values of 2 and 5 CTCs/7.5 ml were used. AdnaTest requires 5 ml of PB to detect gene transcripts of tumor markers (GA733-2, MUC-1, and HER2) by RT-PCR. AdnaTest was scored positive if 1 of the transcript PCR products for the 3 markers were detected at a concentration 0.15 ng/ll. A total of 55 MBC patients were enrolled. 26 (47%) patients were positive for CTCs by the CellSearch (2 cutoff), while 20 (36%) were positive (5 cutoff). AdnaTest was positive in 29 (53%) with the individual markers being positive in 18% (GA733-2), 44% (MUC-1), and 35% (HER2). Overall positive agreement was 73% for CTC2 and 69% for CTC5. These preliminary data suggest that the AdnaTest has equivalent sensitivity to that of the CellSearch system in detecting 2 or more CTCs. While there is concordance between these 2 methods, the AdnaTest complements the CellSearch system by improving the overall CTC detection rate and permitting the assessment of genomic markers in CTCs.