Thermal regime and water balance components of 12 lakes located at two different parts of the Antarctic (the Fildes peninsula in the Maritime Antarctic and the Larsemann Hills in the continental Antarctica) were studied using the observations from three field campaigns in 2012-2014. The morphometric characteristics of the studied lakes were updated with GPS/echo-sounding surveys, and changes in the length, width and volume of the lakes were revealed in comparison with the previous surveys. The thermal regime of the lakes was also studied by modelling, applying the lake model FLake, which is widely used in different environmental applications but was tested for the first time in the Antarctic conditions. In contrast to boreal lakes, for lakes in Antarctica the modelling results by FLake appeared to be sensitive to the light extinction coefficient. According to simulations, all lakes were mixed down to the bottom for the whole summer; however, the reasons for this are different for shallow and deep lakes. The sensitivity of different methods to calculate evaporation, by the Dalton-type empirical equation and by the atmospheric surface layer block of FLake, was studied. For endorheic lakes, the sensitivity appeared to be large, up to 47% of the total seasonal water volume change, which assumes that FLake has the potential to be used in hydrological applications to calculate evaporation. Seasonal variations of the volume of the lakes in the continental Antarctica are larger than in the Maritime Antarctic. Usually, small and medium-sized lakes accumulate or redistribute water during the warm season. However, the systems of big lakes also release the stored water through the mechanism of abrupt jumps, which simultaneously cause the inflow into the sea of huge amounts of fresh water during short time intervals.
Abstract. Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple impacts of high-latitude dust (HLD) on the Earth's systems. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the source intensity (SI) values, which show the potential of soil surfaces for dust emission scaled to values 0 to 1 concerning globally best productive sources, using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM). This includes 64 HLD sources in our collection for the northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD sources shows seasonal character. It is estimated that high-latitude land areas with higher (SI ≥0.5), very high (SI ≥0.7), and the highest potential (SI ≥0.9) for dust emission cover >1 670 000 km2, >560 000 km2, and >240 000 km2, respectively. In the Arctic HLD region (≥60∘ N), land area with SI ≥0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km2), area with SI ≥0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km2), and area with SI ≥0.9 is 1.1 % (208 701 km2). Minimum SI values in the northern HLD region are about 3 orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region greatly depend on weather conditions. Our spatial dust source distribution analysis modeling results showed evidence supporting a northern HLD belt, defined as the area north of 50∘ N, with a “transitional HLD-source area” extending at latitudes 50–58∘ N in Eurasia and 50–55∘ N in Canada and a “cold HLD-source area” including areas north of 60∘ N in Eurasia and north of 58∘ N in Canada, with currently “no dust source” area between the HLD and low-latitude dust (LLD) dust belt, except for British Columbia. Using the global atmospheric transport model SILAM, we estimated that 1.0 % of the global dust emission originated from the high-latitude regions. About 57 % of the dust deposition in snow- and ice-covered Arctic regions was from HLD sources. In the southern HLD region, soil surface conditions are favorable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause a decrease in the duration of snow cover, retreat of glaciers, and an increase in drought, heatwave intensity, and frequency, leading to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favorable for dust emission, which increases the probability of dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify, and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD.
Abstract. Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.
Abstract. Dust particles emitted from high latitudes (≥ 50° N and ≥ 40° S, including Arctic as a subregion ≥ 60° N), have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants and nutrient sources. To understand the multiple impacts of the High Latitude Dust (HLD) on the Earth systems, it is foremost to identify the geographic locations and characteristics of local dust sources. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the Source Intensity (SI) values using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM), for sixty-four HLD sources included in our collection in the Northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and Southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD dust sources show seasonal character. The environmental and climatic effects of dust on clouds and climatic feedbacks, atmospheric chemistry, marine environment, and cryosphere-atmosphere feedbacks at high latitudes are discussed, and regional-scale modelling of dust atmospheric transport from potential Arctic dust sources is demonstrated. It is estimated that high latitude land area with higher (SI ≥ 0.5), very high (SI ≥ 0.7) and the highest potential (SI ≥ 0.9) for dust emission cover >1 670 000 km2, >560 000 km2, and >240 000 km2, respectively. In the Arctic HLD region, land area with SI ≥ 0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km2), area with SI ≥ 0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km2), and with SI ≥ 0.9 it is 1.1 % (208 701 km2). Minimum SI values in the north HLD region are about three orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region are highly dependable on weather conditions. In the south HLD region, soil surface conditions are favourable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause decrease of snow cover duration, retrieval of glaciers, permafrost thaw, and increase of drought and heat waves intensity and frequency, which all lead to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favourable for dust emission and thereby increasing probability for dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD in the future.
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