The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere “statistical shadow of the past”, and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their “narrative of the future” – imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the “shared narratives” produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.
Understanding the relationship between economic and fertility trends is a challenge for demographic research. Karaman Örsal and Goldstein (2018) took a large group of middle-high income countries and looked at the relevant data from the postwar period onwards. They showed that, since 1970, good economic conditions have led to higher fertility, while bad economic conditions mean lower fertility, suggesting a pro-cyclical trend (see also Myrskylä et al. 2009). However, a close look at the demographic trends at the beginning of the twenty-first century casts doubts on this kind of interpretation. Economic indicators suggest that European countries are currently moving out of the Great Recession, whereas fertility trends are not so positive. For instance, in 2009 Northern European economies resumed economic growth, but their total fertility started to decrease substantially. In Norway, total fertility dropped from 1.98 in 2009 to 1.6 in 2018, the lowest ever in peacetime; similar changes, and even lower fertility levels, have been observed in Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden (Comolli et al. 2019). On the other side of Europe, Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain, after a period of fertility rebound, re-entered, in the same period, a regime of lowest-low fertility, with total fertility around 1.3.
a b s t r a c tWorking conditions have changed dramatically over recent decades in all the countries of European Union: permanent full-time employment characterized by job security and a stable salary is replaced more and more by temporary work, apprenticeship contracts, casual jobs and part-time work. The consequences of these changes on the general well-being of workers and their health represent an increasingly important path of inquiry.We add to the debate by answering the question: are Italian workers on temporary contracts more likely to suffer from poor health than those with permanent jobs? Our analysis is based on a sample of men and women aged 16e64 coming from the Italian longitudinal survey 2007e2010 of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. We use the method of inverse-probability-oftreatment weights to estimate the causal effect of temporary work on self-rated health, controlling for selection effects.Our major findings can be summarized as follows: firstly, we show a negative association between temporary employment and health that results from a statistical causal effect in the work-to-health direction, and does not trivially derive from a selection of healthier individuals in the group of people who find permanent jobs (selection effect). Secondly, we find that temporary employment becomes particularly negative for the individual's health when it is prolonged over time. Thirdly, whereas temporary employment does not entail significant adverse consequences for men, the link between temporary employment and health is strongly harmful for Italian women.
Family scholars have noted a gap in the subjective well‐being of cohabitors relative to spouses and have hypothesized that the size of this “cohabitation gap” varies depending on how far cohabitation has diffused in a society. For the first time we test this hypothesis across time in a single country, Italy, by analyzing 20 cross‐sectional, nationally representative surveys collected from 1993 to 2013 by the Italian Institute of Statistics (N = 279,190 partnered young adults). We find that differences in the assessments of family satisfaction between cohabitors and spouses have eroded over the years and that there has been no detectable cohabitation gap since 2011. In addition, we illustrate that the weakening of the cohabitation gap is attributable to the diffusion of cohabiting unions in Italian society.
The new forms of atypical contracts increasingly diffused beside standard permanent full-time employment has been argued being detrimental for workers' mental health. Despite a growing body of studies is now appearing on the topic, they generally fail to recognize that atypical workers represent a heterogeneous group. This study addresses such oversight for Italy by scrutinizing the association between four major domains of mental health-vitality, social functioning, role emotional, and general mental health-and six types of atypical contract-temporary, casual, part-time by choice permanent, part-time by choice temporary, not chosen part-time permanent, and not chosen part-time temporary. First, we find that mental health is compromised by atypical working arrangements depending on the specific atypical contract considered. Second, we verify that the choice of the atypical experience is relevant in shaping the relationship with mental health (a novelty for Italy). Third, we prove that, regardless the type of contract, variations across mental health outcomes exist. We conclude that more reflection is needed when designing studies on atypical works and their consequences on workers' well-being.
Existing research on family and well-being has generally focused on the traditional family, and has largely ignored the increasing diversity in family forms and relations. Our aim in this paper is to help fill this gap by investigating the extent of the relationship between living arrangements and life satisfaction (LS) in Europe. We examined variations in life satisfaction by applying a multilevel approach (i.e., individuals nested in countries) to data from the 2007 European Quality of Life Survey. First, we found that levels of life satisfaction among families consisting of couples with children were significantly higher than among people in other (less typical) family arrangements. Second, our results illustrate that after the socioeconomic situation of the family was taken into account, the influence of family status on LS disappeared almost completely. Overall, our findings suggest that the lower levels of life satisfaction experienced by people living in atypical families can be largely attributed to their weaker socioeconomic position.
We adopted a multilevel approach in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the main social and economic differences associated with inequalities in self-rated health, according to the territorial context of residence. We focused on the Italian population aged 65 and over, availing of the most recent data on health conditions in Italy. This study proves the persistence in Italy, a modern welfare state that has one of the best overall healthcare systems in the world, of significant, if not enormous, socioeconomic differences in self-perceived health among the elderly. We found that each component of the socioeconomic status is autonomously correlated with individual perceptions of health, highlighting the importance of considering all of the facets of the individual socioeconomic status in measuring the extent of health inequalities. The lack of a network of relationships was also found to be strongly associated with a poor health status for elderly Italians. Our study also documented the presence of a contextual effect. The proposed multilevel modeling proved to be useful in shedding light on relevant aspects in the field of perceived health and for avoiding misleading results.
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