The transport of seeds by water, i.e. hydrochory, is a key mechanism of long‐distance dispersal constrained by the attributes of the seed and hydrodynamics. In the freshwater Amazon estuary, river hydrodynamics are influenced by seasonal changes in precipitation and tidal cycles. It is not known to what extent a hydrodynamic model may be able to predict seed dispersal.
Here we parameterised a simulation model (SisBaHia) to estimate maximum seed dispersal distances per tidal cycle, which were then compared with data from in situ seed dispersal experiments. The study was conducted along a 27‐km stretch of a tributary of the Amazon estuary, using the seeds of a widely distributed riparian tree—Carapa guianensis (Meliaceae).
Based on the simulation model, maximum potential seed dispersal distance was higher in the rainy season (c. 8.7 km) when compared with the dry season (5.6 km), for one tidal cycle (12 hr). The seeds of C. guianensis were dispersed further during the ebb than flood tide during the rainy season, the period of seed dispersal. Average dispersal distances observed in seed dispersal experiments conducted during the rainy season, and those predicted by SisBaHia for the same period were within the same order of magnitude.
The results of this study confirm that the period of higher precipitation provides favourable hydrological conditions for hydrochory in the Amazon river‐estuary complex. The fact that the time taken for the tide to fall is longer in relation to the time taken for it to rise also favours the arrival of the seeds in the main channel of the Amazon, thereby increasing the probability of long‐distance dispersal events.
O objetivo da investigação foi analisar vazões extremas ocorridas entre 9 e 14 de abril de 2011 na bacia do Rio Araguari-AP. A metodologia consistiu de três etapas principais: 1) re-análise da precipitação estimada pelo Modelo BRAMS (Brazilian in Development Regional Atmospheric Model System),utilizando como suporte a sinótica do mesmo período; 2) análise de vazão nas seções de monitoramento hidrológico em Porto Platon, Capivara e Serra do Navio (ADCP-Accustic Doppler Profiller Current); 3) análise estatística da série histórica de vazões máximas em Porto Platon utilizando distribuição de Gumbel. Observou-se que o modelo BRAMS capturou parcialmente o padrão do sistema de precipitação quando comparado com a análise sinótica e com os dados da literatura, mas demandando ainda otimização na representação de respostas hidrológicas extremas. Em Porto Platon foi registrada uma vazão recorde de 4036 m3/s, cujo comportamento foi analisado sob a ótica dos mecanismos disponíveis de monitoramento no Estado. Concluiu-se que tais eventos extremos são pouco detectáveis e oferecem riscos consideráveis aos usuários da bacia. A previsão de vazão, baseada na série hidrológica disponível, era de 100 anos de retorno, mas as análises revelaram que este período seria de 360 anos, indicando significativa fragilidade do sistema de previsão de eventos extremos no Estado.
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