This study aims at analyzing the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Turkey by using Threshold Cointegration. As the studies about the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on growth are surveyed, it is seen that all of them uses liner methods except two. Starting point of these studies that use liner methods are the positive relationship between Growth and Foreign Direct Investment. As such, Yılmaz and Barbaros (2006) find positive relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and market size in Turkey between 1980 and 2001. Erdal and Tatoğlu (2002) reach the same conclusion for the period of 1980-1998 by using real Gross Domestic Product as a proxy for market size. Deichmann, Karidis and Sayek (2003) find positive linkage between Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Product in Turkey by using Conditional Logit Model. Bildirici and Bozoklu (2008) find positive relationship between growth and Foreign Direct Investment by using Markov Switching Vector Auto Regression method. Katırcıoğlu (2009) analyses the connection between Foreign Direct Investment and economic development by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag and indicates that economic development causes net Foreign Direct Investment. Darrat and Sarkar (2009) state the affirmative effects of the Foreign Direct Investment on growth as expected theoretically. Bildirici, Bozoklu (2008) find positive relationship between growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey. Bildirici, Alp and Kayıkçı (2010) state the existence of threshold effect for these variables. This study intends to research this effect in historical perspective, using Threshold Cointegration Analysis.
Purpose- The purpose of this study is to identify what has changed on the enterprises’ problems and solution proposals pre and during the COVID-19 period. In this context, the problem and solution proposals obtained from the "Chamber of Sworn-In Certified Public Accountant of Istanbul Economy Expectation Index and Encountered Problems and Solution" survey were evaluated on basis of sectors.
Methodology- The survey used in the study has been applied quarterly since 2017 to 13 different sectors and more than 300 enterprises. In April 2020, the survey was applied as a COVID-19 thematic survey. In this study, the results of the pandemic thematic survey and the results applied in the 2019-2021 periods were compared using frequency breakdowns for 8 sectors.
Findings- According to the findings, it was stated that serious losses occurred due to the exchange rate risks due to the problems experienced with the fluctuation of the exchange rate. In addition, the global economic recession has become one of the important problems of enterprises that have problems in terms of equity capital. While the profitability ratios decreased due to the contraction in demand and increase in costs, it was observed that enterprises with increasing credit costs had difficulties in accessing appropriate financing.
Conclusion- According to the study, it has been demonstrated that sectors appear new problems in the pandemic. Hence, sectors' problems should be considered on a preferential basis by public authorities. It has been considered incentive that is applied by the public authority will have a great influence on enterprises.
Keywords: Covid-19, sectoral problems, encountered problems and solution proposals.
JEL Codes: P00, M21, M29
Bu çalışmada sanayi üretim düzeyinde etkili olan geleneksel makroekonomik faktörlerden farklı olarak üreticilere ve tüketicilere yönelik güven endeksleri aracılığıyla ekonomiye duyulan güvenin üretim seviyesi üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti Türkiye için aylık olarak 2007:01-2017:12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. İncelenen dönemin 2008 krizini de içinde barındıran bir dönem olması sebebiyle kriz etkisinin görüldüğü 2007-2010 dönemi ile kriz sonrası görece istikrarlı dönem olarak kabul edebileceğimiz 2010-2017 dönemleri ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. İncelenen dönemde verilerin hepsinde mevsimsellik ve trend bileşenlerinin varlığı saptanmış ve arındırılmıştır. Birim kök testleri vasıtasıyla tüm değişkenlerin aynı dereceden durağan olduğu saptandıktan sonra elde edilen VEC modelleri neticesinde tüketici güven endeksinin sanayi üretimi üzerinde belirli düzeyde etkili olduğu, reel kesim güven endeksinin etkisinin tüketici güven endeksine kıyasla daha sınırlı kaldığı görülmektedir. Her iki analiz dönemde de kriz dönemlerinde güven endekslerinin etkilerinin daha belirgin olarak hissedildiği gözlemlenmiştir.
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