In a local government, it is important to know the areas that have the potential to be the center of growth. Because with the determination of the growth center, it will be easier in
Malaysia is an important coffee export destination for Indonesia. Recently Vietnam shifts Indonesian position as a number one coffee exporter in Malaysia. Based on this background, this study compares the position of Indonesian and Vietnamese coffee in the eyes of Malaysians by using demand function. The data is time series and co-integration test should be applied. Co-integration test is using Bound Test in ARDL method. Indonesian coffee demand by Malaysians is cointegrated, whereas the demand for Vietnamese coffee by Malaysia does not contain co-integration. It means, Vietnamese coffee is not a serious competitor to Indonesian coffee in Malaysian market.
This study examines and analyzes the energy economic policy of Indonesia with population, energy consumption and its macroeconomic condition in the short-run and long-run. In the long run, this study found that the non-renewable energy will be replaced with renewable energy. One of Indonesia's imported energy commodities is fuel and engine oil consumer goods. Based on the unit root test results, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model is the most appropriate model used in this study. The coefficient of determination indicated by the R-squared is 0.967579, which means the model can explain 96.8% of the international trade and its macroeconomic factors on the volume of imported fuel and engine oil in Indonesia. This study uses independent variables like total population, vehicle volume, gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rates, and foreign exchange reserves. These variables were fruitful in explaining the critical factors in the imported volume of fuel and engine oil, which are essential public goods used in daily activities and have to meet the people's consumption. In addition, the result reveals that the interesting thing is in the long run, the total population negatively affects fuel and engine oil imports in Indonesia.
The administered price of fuel has increased quite frequently since 1970. It has raised a concern on the survival ability of manufacturing firms that could be weakened by such policy. This research objective is for confirming whether the policy of increasing fuel price affects the survival of manufacturing firms in Indonesia. By using Instrumental Variable Probit Model, it demonstrates that increasing fuel price does not affect firms’ survival in the short-run, middle-run, as well as long-run. Nevertheless, the z-statistics increase when the period of estimation is expanded. It means that if the time span of sample observation is widened, the result might be different.Keywords: Fuel price, survival ability, instrumental variable probit modelJEL classification numbers: H27, D22AbstrakHarga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) selalu meningkat sejak 1970. Kenaikan harga ini telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran pada kemampuan kelangsungan hidup perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia yang bisa dilemahkan oleh kebijakan tersebut. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan mengonfirmasi apakah kebijakan kenaikan harga BBM mempengaruhi kelangsungan hidup perusahaan industri manufaktur di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan Instrumental Variable Probit Model, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan harga BBM tidak mempengaruhi kelangsungan hidupperusahaan dalam jangka pendek, menengah, serta jangka panjang. Namun demikian, z-statistik meningkat ketika periode estimasi diperluas. Ini berarti bahwa jika rentang waktu pengamatan sampel melebar, hasilnya mungkin akan berbeda.Kata kunci: Harga BBM, kemampuan bertahan hidup, instrumental variable probit modelJEL classification numbers: H27, D22
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