The authors have used this paper to demonstrate how material balance was applied in field development planning for a green gas field. In this work, we have used one of the reservoirs as case study. Deterministic tank model was initially built for the reservoir using MBAL™. Petrophysical properties, aquifer parameters and relative permeability data were all added into the model. Well flow models were generated using PROSPER™ and then imported into MBAL™. Facility constraints were imposed, and deterministic prediction run was performed. Key impacting parameters on the recovery factor were assessed, and corresponding ranges were estimated for each. A probabilistic prediction workflow was developed and applied to the deterministic model. This uses experimental design to generate multiple runs with the aid of OpenServer™. Response/proxy function for gas recovery was then generated and tested for consistency with "observed" data. Multiple Monte Carlo runs were then done using Crystal ball, and the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles were extracted. The corresponding parameters for these respective percentiles were then tested in MBAL™ to check for reliability. Finally, all reservoirs were rolled-up using GAP™, and the recovery factors were checked for consistency with MBAL™. The recovery factors (P10, P50 and P90) from the probabilistic material balance work were then compared with results from grid-based simulation work done on the reservoir. The figures were further compared with estimates from local and global analogues, as well as analysis done by a third-party. Results from the MBAL™ work compared reasonably with recovery factors from the other methods. Probabilistic material balance approach helps to remove bias/anchoring while estimating a range of outcomes for recovery factor. It also gives reasonable estimates, as demonstrated by the closeness of results with other methods. However, it is not a replacement especially for the grid-based simulation, but should rather be a complement. The methodology has been successfully applied to other gas fields and reliable results were also obtained. The work was equally adapted to more complex systems as multi-tank models.
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