Keinänen, M., Uddström, A., Mikkonen, J., Casini, M., Pönni, J., Myllylä, T., Aro, E., and Vuorinen, P. J. 2012. The thiamine deficiency syndrome M74, a reproductive disorder of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) feeding in the Baltic Sea, is related to the fat and thiamine content of prey fish. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 516–528. This study clarifies how the diet of Baltic salmon leads to thiamine deficiency in eggs, and consequently to M74 mortality of yolk-sac fry. The main prey species, sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus membras), and their biomass in the Baltic Proper (BPr) and the Bothnian Sea, the two feeding grounds of salmon originating from the northern Gulf of Bothnia rivers, are compared. The thiamine concentration of both prey species is lowest in the youngest age groups. Because average fat content and energy density are greater in sprat than in herring, and greatest in youngest sprat, the supply of thiamine per unit energy is least in a diet containing many young sprat. Also, the greater is the supply of thiamine and fat from sprat in the southern BPr in the preceding year, the lower the concentration of thiamine in salmon eggs. Thiamine deficiency in eggs results from an unbalanced diet abundant in fatty prey fish, such as young sprat, from which the supply of thiamine is insufficient in proportion to the supply of energy and unsaturated fatty acids for salmon, which must undergo a long prespawning fasting period.

During the stagnation period of the Baltic Sea the mean weight-at-age of Baltic herring decreased by 50% (between 1977 and 1992). This has usually been attributed to a top-down process, i.e. to the simultaneous collapse of cod stocks and their predation. We present long-term data for 1980 to 1993 showing that bottom-up effects may also have played a role: along with the decline of salinity. the biomass proportion of zooplankton taxa preferred by herring (larger than 20 pg ind:' in wet welght) significantly declined. To support our hypothesis we present a study in which Baltic herring feeding and selective predation were investigated during 1985, a time of good growth and high weightat-age, and 1991, when herring growth and weight-at-age were poor. In this study, herring ston~achs and simultaneously taken plankton samples were analysed from trawl surveys conducted in the northern Baltic proper d'uring the peak of the herring feeding season in late summer. During both 1985 and 1991, herring selectively preyed on the larger zooplankton categones, especially neritic copepods. However, in 1991, a smaller proportion of the prey in herring stomachs consisted of neritic copepods, apparently because their share in plankton had decreased. Consequently, and despite an increase in total zooplankton biomass, the estimated carbon content of the food eaten by herring was lower, and the average stomach fullness index (on a scale of 0 to 5) decreased from 3.9 in 1985 to 1.9 in 1991. Also, the amount of mesenteric fat on herring stomachs declined from 4.2 to 3.2 (scale 0 to 5), indicating a longer-term failure in feeding success. We suggest that, in addition to possible top-down effects (a release of cod predation), bottom-up processes mediated via changes in mesozooplankton species composition have also influenced hernng growth and that both of these processes are affected by the same environmental factor-the Baltic salinity level.

SUMMARY:The recruitment processes of Baltic cod and sprat were analysed and critical periods were identified by addressing the major impact factors on individual early life history stages separately and relating observed abundance data between successive stages. For cod, recruitment appeared to be dependent on egg survival, with low oxygen concentration in dwelling depths and predation by clupeids as the major causes for egg mortality. Surviving egg production and larval abundance were weakly correlated, whereas larval abundance was significantly related to year class strength. This indicated that the period between the late egg and the early larval stage is critical for cod recruitment. A potential variable identified to affect this life stage was prey availability for larvae. For sprat, early and late egg stage production as well as late egg stage production and larval abundance were significantly related. However, year class strength was largely independent of larval abundance. Thus, the period between the late larval and early juvenile stage appeared to be critical for sprat recruitment. Potential variables identified to affect this life stage were ambient temperature and wind stress. Environmental factors showing statistically significant covariance with the survival of one of these critical life stages were incorporated into stock-recruitment models for individual spawning areas separately and for the Central Baltic combined.

Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

The sources of carbon for the pelagic fish production in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa, were evaluated in a comprehensive multi-year study. Phytoplankton production was assessed from seasonal in situ 14 C and simulated in situ results, using on-board incubator measurements and knowledge of the vertical distributions of chlorophyll and irradiance. Bacterioplankton production was measured on two cruises with the leucine incorporation method. Zooplankton production was calculated from seasonal population samples, the carbon contents of different developmental stages and growth rates derived from published sources. Fish production estimates were based on hydroacoustic assessment of pelagic fish biomass and data on growth rates obtained from length frequency analyses and checked against daily increment rings of fish otoliths. Estimates for primary production (426-662 g C m −2 a −1 ) were 47-128% higher than previously published values. Bacterioplankton production amounted to about 20% of the primary production. Zooplankton biomass (1 g C m −2 ) and production (23 g C m −2 a −1 ) were 50% lower than earlier reported, suggesting that the carbon transfer efficiency from phytoplankton to zooplankton was low, in contrast to earlier speculations. Planktivorous fish biomass (0.4 g C m −2 ) and production (1.4-1.7 g C m −2 a −1 ) likewise indicated a low carbon transfer efficiency from zooplankton into planktivorous fish production. Relatively low transfer efficiencies are not unexpected in a deep tropical lake, because of the generally high metabolic losses due to the high temperatures and presumably high costs of predator avoidance. The total fisheries yield in Lake Tanganyika in the mid-1990s was 0.08-0.14% of pelagic primary production, i.e. within the range of typical values in lakes. Thus, no special mechanisms need be invoked to explain the productivity of fisheries in Lake Tanganyika.