A quasi-population model for adult brown trout was developed for the Taylor River below the Taylor Park Reservoir in Colorado. This model allows the population to be predicted under alternative flow management regimes. The predicted population effects of two different flow release patterns were compared with the predicted population for the current reservoir operation regime. Changes in angler catch were imputed for these scenarios. The changes in catch were valued using estimates of willingness to pay obtained from anglers fishing at the site. Total angling effort was held constant. For both of the flow scenarios examined the difference in economic use value was limited. The relatively small changes in value predicted were shaped by the small changes in catch predicted and the high number of fish caught under current conditions. INTRODUCTION Releases from storage reservoirs have traditionally been made for agricultural purposes, mining and manufacturing, municipal water supply, and other off-stream uses. Now, however, management strategies which favor these traditional water uses are being questioned and operation regimes which recognize the importance of fisheries, habitat maintenance, and other uses requiring adequate stream flow are being formulated. In Colorado, as in other western states, the question of how to balance reservoir releases between traditional water uses and instream uses such as maintaining recreational fisheries has become the subject of considerable debate. While there are numerous political, legal, and philosophical aspects to this debate, objective economic analysis hinges on the development of tools for quantifying and valuing the impacts on recreational fisheries which result from changes in flow regimes. At a minimum, these tools must allow for the prediction of fish populations under differing flow regimes, linkage of these fish populations to fish catch, and estimation of the economic value of this catch. The three objectives of this study were (1) to develop a framework for predicting fish population as a function of stream discharge, (2) to estimate the economic use value of these fish, and (3) to demonstrate the use of this framework for the analysis of alternative reservoir release regimes. RELATED STUDIES capture the effect of stream flow and lend themselves to the analysis of different flow management regimes. Recently, however, two studies based on flow-driven models have appeared in the literature. Cheslak and Jacobson [1990] employed a fisheries population model based on the method used in the present study: the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM). Cheslak and Jacobson predicted the flow impacts of a proposed hydroelectric project on fish populations in the Clavey River in California. The results reported by the authors and the population response predicted in this analysis are similar. The Cheslak and Jacobson model is not linked to fish catch or economic value.Another study by Fisher et al. [1991] is based on a rather sophisticated biological modeling effort and ...
The impact of irrigated agriculture on regional economies is a subject of continuing interest and debate. A cross-sectional analysis of 1978-1980 U.S. Census data for 104 counties in the northern High Plains is formulated. A recurslye system of equations is estimated and used to derive multipliers of irrigated acreage on employment. Effects of irrigation on local employment are statistically very significant but not substantively large in the context of a developed economy. Achieving balance in economic development among differ-nological advances to induce massive investment in sprinkler ent regions has long been recognized as a prominent goal of irrigation. By 1978, some 170,000 wells pumped 23 million acft public policy [U.S. Water Resources Council, 1973], but the annually to irrigate 13 million acres (1 acre = 0.405 ha) [Guteneffectiveness of public water resource development policies in ta• et al., 1984]. While water in the region is largely drawn achieving that goal in the U.S. economy and elsewhere has from the Ogallala Aquifer, the Platte and Arkansas Rivers are been subject to active debate [Howe, 1976]. Lewis et al. also important sources of irrigation water in the portion of the [1973] reviewed conceptual and empirical issues in developding impact measures. The role of irrigation in the development of arid regions has received particular attention. Roeslet et al. [1968] and Lamphear and Roeslet [1974] reported a very large role for irrigation in the Nebraska economy utilizing an interindustry model. Their findings have had a persistent and influential r01e in water development policy debates in the western United States, but have not been fully supported by other analyses employing a similar approach [Kelso et al., 1973; McKean et al., 1982; Young, 1984]. Cichetti et al. [1975] and Fullerton et al. [!975] applied simultaneous equation econometdc tests to county level data from multistate regions of the southwestern United States. Several census periods were induded. Neither study was able to report statistically significant impacts of federal water resource expenditures on conventional indicators of economic growth. Stoevener and Kraynick [1979] noted, however, that neither of the two econometric studies controlled for the effect of non-Federal water resource investments. OB•IECTIVE, PROCEDURES, AND SCOPEOur purpose here is to provide additional evidence on the impact of irrigation development on regional economies in a developed nation, using a different data set and a somewhat modified econometric technique. The extensive development 0[ the Ogallala Aquifer provides a natural experiment for testing the hypothesis at issue. The Ogallala formation is a heterogeneous sequence of clays, silts, sands, and gravel deposited by streams flowing eastward from the Rocky Mountains; it uMerlies about 134,000 mi 2 (1 mi 2 --2.590 km 2) in Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Texas, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Over 3 blllion acft of (1 ac-ft -1233 m •) recoverable water are estimated to remairi ø in the...
This paper is an expository note in which it is demonstrated that conventional input-output multipliers based upon the Leontief matrix may provide misleading information concerning the relative importance of the processing sectors within a regional economy. An alternative technique is presented in which economic multipliers are based upon percentage changes in sales to final demand.Evidence that size variation among economic sectors prevents meaningful comparisons of multipliers is shown using the Colorado InputOutput Model. A comparison between several types of conventional employment multipliers and growth equalized multipliers is used to indicate the magnitude of the effects of non-equal sector size.
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