Rain gauge changes, changes in the number of observations per day, and inconsistent corrections to observed precipitation data during the 20th century of the meteorological network of the former Soviet Union make it difficult to address the issue of century time-scale precipitation changes. In this paper, we use daily and sub-daily synoptic data to account for the effects of these changes on the instrumental homogeneity of precipitation measurements over the Russian permafrost-free zone (RPF, most populous western and central parts of the country). Re-adjustments that were developed during this assessment allow us to (a) develop a system of scale corrections that remove the inhomogeneity owing to wetting/observation time changes over most of the former Soviet Union during the past century, and (b) to estimate precipitation trends over the RPF, reconciling previously contradictory results. The trend that emerges is an increase of about 5% per century. This estimate can be further refined after a more comprehensive set of supplementary data (precipitation type and wind) and metadata (information about the exposure of meteorological sites) is employed.
A brief characterization of observed climatic changes in surface temperature is presented for the globe and the Russian Federation. In accordance with this characteristic, observed changes are indicative of global warming, most pronounced after the 1970s. The skill in simulating a global climate in the 20th century by modern climate models is analyzed. It is shown that climate models satisfactorily reproduce the fields of long-term means, the seasonal cycle, and tendencies of changes in some meteorological objects, whereas their interannual variability (after removal of the trend) is not virtually simulated by the models. An approach to constructing a strategic forecast of forthcoming climatic changes in the Russian Federation for the next decades is discussed, and recommendations on its using are formulated. A variant of a probabilistic strategic forecast of air temperature for the 30-year period of 2008-2037 over Russia is proposed.
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