Probabilistic risk assessment systems for tropical cyclone hazards rely on large ensembles of model simulations to characterize cyclones tracks, intensities, and the extent of the associated damaging winds. Given the computational costs, the wind field is often modeled using parametric formulations that make assumptions that are based on observations of tropical systems (e.g., satellite, or aircraft reconnaissance). In particular, for the Northern Hemisphere, most of the damaging contribution is assumed to be from the right of the moving cyclone, with the left-hand-side winds being much weaker because of the direction of storm motion. Recent studies have highlighted that this asymmetry assumption does not hold for cyclones undergoing extratropical transitions around Japan. Transitioning systems can exhibit damaging winds on both sides of the moving cyclone, with wind fields often characterized as resembling a horseshoe. This study develops a new parametric formulation of the extratropical transition phase for application in risk assessment systems. A compromise is sought between the need to characterize the horseshoe shape while keeping the formulation simple to allow for implementation within a risk assessment framework. For that purpose the tropical wind model developed by Willoughby et al. is selected as a starting point and parametric bias correction fields are applied to build the target shape. Model calibration is performed against a set of 37 extratropical transition cases simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. This newly developed parametric model of the extratropical transition phase shows an ability to reproduce wind field features observed in the western North Pacific Ocean while using only a restricted number of input parameters.
Risk-assessment systems for wind hazards (e.g., hurricanes or typhoons) often rely on simple parametric wind field formulations. They are built using extensive observations of tropical cyclones and make assumptions about wind field asymmetry. In this framework, maximum winds are always simulated to the right of the cyclone, but analysis of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis database for the western North Pacific Ocean suggests that wind fields from cyclones undergoing extratropical transition around Japan often present features that cannot be adequately simulated under these assumptions. These ''left-hand-side contribution'' (LHSC) wind fields exhibit strong winds on both sides of the moving cyclone with the maximum magnitude often located to the left. Classification of cyclones in terms of their most frequent patterns reveals that 67% of cases that make a transition around Japan are dominantly LHSC. They are more likely in autumn and have more intense maximum winds. The results from this study show the need for a new approach to the modeling of transitioning wind fields in the context of risk-assessment systems.
Instability of coupled density fronts, and its fully nonlinear evolution are studied within the idealized reduced-gravity rotating shallow-water model. By using the collocation method, we benchmark the classical stability results on zero potential vorticity (PV) fronts and generalize them to non-zero PV fronts. In both cases, we find a series of instability zones intertwined with the stability regions along the along-front wavenumber axis, the most unstable modes being long wave. We then study the nonlinear evolution of the unstable modes with the help of a high-resolution well-balanced finite-volume numerical scheme by initializing it with the unstable modes found from the linear stability analysis. The most unstable long-wave mode evolves as follows: after a couple of inertial periods, the coupled fronts are pinched at some location and a series of weakly connected co-rotating elliptic anticyclonic vortices is formed, thus totally changing the character of the flow. The characteristics of these vortices are close to known rodon lens solutions. The shorter-wave unstable modes from the next instability zones are strongly concentrated in the frontal regions, have sharp gradients, and are saturated owing to dissipation without qualitatively changing the flow pattern.
We present the results of fully nonlinear numerical simulations of the geostrophic adjustment of a pressure front over topography, represented by an escarpment with a linear slope. The results of earlier simulations in the linear regime are confirmed and new essentially nonlinear effects are found. Topography influences both fast and slow components of motion. The fast unbalanced motion corresponds to inertia-gravity waves ͑IGW͒. The IGW emitted during initial stages of adjustment break and form the localized dissipation zones. Due to topography, the IGW activity is enhanced in certain directions. The slow balanced motion corresponds to topographic Rossby waves propagating along the escarpment. As shown, at large enough nonlinearities they may trap fluid/ tracer and carry it on. There are indications that nonlinear topographic waves form a soliton train during the adjustment process. If the coastal line is added to the escarpment at the shallow side ͑continental shelf͒, secondary fronts related to the propagation of the coastal Kelvin waves appear.
This paper is focused on the spontaneous transient adjustment of a buoyant lens of water with uniform density, initially at rest in the vicinity of the equator. For parameters typical of the western Pacific warm pool, the adjustment is shown to generate finite-amplitude wave motions with period ϳ8 days, which are not covered by the standard theory of linear equatorial waves. This mechanism may be at the origin of inertial motions at the early stages of ENSO events in the western Pacific Ocean. The lens adjustment is studied within the 1 1 ⁄2-layer reduced-gravity approximation on the equatorial  plane, using the high-resolution finite-volume numerical methods that are specially designed to handle outcropping isopycnals. Under the reduced-gravity approximation, a buoyant region of light water with outcropping boundaries in the vicinity of the equator is described by two parameters: the meridional-to-zonal scale aspect ratio ␦ and the ratio ␥ of the Coriolis force to the pressure force on its meridional boundary. For realistic parameters (␦ ϳ 10 Ϫ1 ; ␥ ϳ 1), the lens, initially at rest, spreads eastward in accord with nonrotating gravity current dynamics, whereas its westward extrusion is arrested so that the western edge splits into two anticyclonic vortices. Meanwhile finite-amplitude westward-propagating inertial wave motions develop at the interface between the spreading current and the ambient fluid. The inertial wave structure is shown to be consistent with the structure of stable wave modes predicted by linear analysis of small amplitude perturbations superimposed on a zonally symmetric equatorial current with outcropping isopycnals. A Wentzel-Kramers-BrillouinJeffreys ray-tracing analysis indicates that the inertial wave is emitted during the early stage of the gravity current evolution and then dispersed on the spreading current.
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