[1] Climate change in combination with increased anthropogenic activities will affect coastal groundwater systems throughout the world. In this paper, we focus on a coastal groundwater system that is already threatened by a relatively high seawater level: the low-lying Dutch Delta. Nearly one third of the Netherlands lies below mean sea level, and the land surface is still subsiding up to 1 m per century. This densely populated delta region, where fresh groundwater resources are used intensively for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, can serve as a laboratory case for other low-lying delta areas throughout the world. Our findings on hydrogeological effects can be scaled up since the problems the Dutch face now will very likely be the problems encountered in other delta areas in the future. We calculated the possible impacts of future sea level rise, land subsidence, changes in recharge, autonomous salinization, and the effects of two mitigation countermeasures with a three-dimensional numerical model for variable density groundwater flow and coupled solute transport. We considered the effects on hydraulic heads, seepage fluxes, salt loads to surface waters, and changes in fresh groundwater resources as a function of time and for seven scenarios. Our numerical modeling results show that the impact of sea level rise is limited to areas within 10 km of the coastline and main rivers because the increased head in the groundwater system at the coast can easily be produced though the highly permeable Holocene confining layer. Along the southwest coast of the Netherlands, salt loads will double in some parts of the deep and large polders by the year 2100 A.D. due to sea level rise. More inland, ongoing land subsidence will cause hydraulic heads and phreatic water levels to drop, which may result in damage to dikes, infrastructure, and urban areas. In the deep polders more inland, autonomous upconing of deeper and more saline groundwater will be responsible for increasing salt loads. The future increase of salt loads will cause salinization of surface waters and shallow groundwater and put the total volumes of fresh groundwater volumes for drinking water supply, agricultural purposes, industry, and ecosystems under pressure.Citation: Oude Essink, G. H. P., E. S. van Baaren, and P. G. B. de Louw (2010), Effects of climate change on coastal groundwater systems: A modeling study in the Netherlands, Water Resour. Res., 46, W00F04,

The complex conductivity of soils remains poorly known despite the growing importance of this method in hydrogeophysics. In order to fill this gap of knowledge, we investigate the complex conductivity of 71 soils samples (including four peat samples) and one clean sand in the frequency range 0.1 Hz to 45 kHz. The soil samples are saturated with six different NaCl brines with conductivities (0.031, 0.53, 1.15, 5.7, 14.7, and 22 S m−1, NaCl, 25°C) in order to determine their intrinsic formation factor and surface conductivity. This data set is used to test the predictions of the dynamic Stern polarization model of porous media in terms of relationship between the quadrature conductivity and the surface conductivity. We also investigate the relationship between the normalized chargeability (the difference of in‐phase conductivity between two frequencies) and the quadrature conductivity at the geometric mean frequency. This data set confirms the relationships between the surface conductivity, the quadrature conductivity, and the normalized chargeability. The normalized chargeability depends linearly on the cation exchange capacity and specific surface area while the chargeability shows no dependence on these parameters. These new data and the dynamic Stern layer polarization model are observed to be mutually consistent. Traditionally, in hydrogeophysics, surface conductivity is neglected in the analysis of resistivity data. The relationships we have developed can be used in field conditions to avoid neglecting surface conductivity in the interpretation of DC resistivity tomograms. We also investigate the effects of temperature and saturation and, here again, the dynamic Stern layer predictions and the experimental observations are mutually consistent.

Abstract. In deltaic areas with saline seepage, freshwater availability is often limited to shallow rainwater lenses lying on top of saline groundwater. Here we describe the characteristics and spatial variability of such lenses in areas with saline seepage and the mechanisms that control their occurrence and size. Our findings are based on different types of field measurements and detailed numerical groundwater models applied in the south-western delta of the Netherlands. By combining the applied techniques we could extrapolate measurements at point scale (groundwater sampling, temperature and electrical soil conductivity (TEC)-probe measurements, electrical cone penetration tests (ECPT)) to field scale (continuous vertical electrical soundings (CVES), electromagnetic survey with EM31), and even to regional scale using helicopter-borne electromagnetic measurements (HEM). The measurements show a gradual mixing zone between infiltrating fresh rainwater and upward flowing saline groundwater. The mixing zone is best characterized by the depth of the centre of the mixing zone D mix , where the salinity is half that of seepage water, and the bottom of the mixing zone B mix , with a salinity equal to that of the seepage water (Cl-conc. 10 to 16 g l −1 ). D mix is found at very shallow depth in the confining top layer, on average at 1.7 m below ground level (b.g.l.), while B mix lies about 2.5 m b.g.l. The model results show that the constantly alternating upward and downward flow at low velocities in the confining layer is the main mechanism of mixing between rainwater and saline seepage and determines the position and extent of the mixing zone (D mix and B mix ). Recharge, seepage flux, and drainage depth are the controlling factors.

Seawater intrusion has often resulted in scarce fresh groundwater resources in coastal lowlands. Careful management is essential to avoid the overexploitation of these vulnerable fresh groundwater resources, requiring detailed information on their spatial occurrence. Airborne electromagnetics (EM) has proved a valuable tool for efficient mapping of ground conductivity, as a proxy for fresh groundwater resources. Stakeholders are, however, interested in groundwater salinity, necessitating a translation of ground conductivity to groundwater salinity. This paper presents a methodology to construct a high-resolution (50 × 50 × 0.5 m 3 ) 3D voxel model of groundwater chloride concentration probability, based on a large-scale (1800 km 2 , 9640 flight line kilometres) airborne EM survey in the province of Zeeland, the Netherlands. Groundwater chloride concentration was obtained by combining pedotransfer functions with detailed lithological information. The methodology includes a Monte Carlo based forward uncertainty propagation approach to quantify the inherent uncertainty in the different steps. Validation showed good correspondence both with available groundwater chloride analyses, and with ground-based hydrogeophysical measurements. Our results show the limited occurrence of fresh groundwater in Zeeland, as 75% of the area lacks fresh groundwater within 15 m below ground surface. Fresh groundwater is mainly limited to the dune area and sandy creek ridges. In addition, significant fresh groundwater resources were shown to exist below saline groundwater, where infiltration of seawater during marine transgressions was hindered by the presence of clayey aquitards. The considerable uncertainty in our results highlights the importance of applying uncertainty analysis in airborne EM surveys. Uncertainty in our results mainly originated from the inversion and the 3D interpolation, and was largest at transition zones between fresh and saline groundwater. Reporting groundwater salinity instead of ground conductivity facilitated the rapid uptake of our results by relevant stakeholders, thereby supporting the necessary management of fresh groundwater resources in the region.

In deltaic areas with saline seepage, fresh water availability is often limited to shallow rainwater lenses lying on top of saline groundwater. Here we describe the characteristics and spatial variability of such lenses in areas with saline seepage and the mechanisms that control their occurrence and size. Our findings are based on different types of field measurements and detailed numerical groundwater models applied in the south-western delta of The Netherlands. By combining the applied techniques we could extrapolate in situ measurements at point scale (groundwater sampling, TEC (temperature and electrical soil conductivity)-probe measurements, electrical cone penetration tests (ECPT)) to a field scale (continuous vertical electrical soundings (CVES), electromagnetic survey with EM31), and even to a regional scale using helicopter-borne electromagnetic measurements (HEM). The measurements show a gradual S-shaped mixing zone between infiltrating fresh rainwater and upward flowing saline groundwater. The mixing zone is best characterized by the depth of the centre of the mixing zone <i>D</i>_mix, where the salinity is half that of seepage water, and the bottom of the mixing zone <i>B</i>_mix, with a salinity equal to that of the seepage water (Cl-conc. 10 to 16 g l⁻¹). <i>D</i>_mix manifests at very shallow depth in the confining top layer, on average at 1.7 m below ground level (b.g.l.), while <i>B</i>_mix lies about 2.5 m b.g.l. Head-driven forced convection is the main mechanism of rainwater lens formation in the saline seepage areas rather than free convection due to density differences. Our model results show that the sequence of alternating vertical flow directions in the confining layer caused by head gradients determines the position of the mixing zone (<i>D</i>_mix and <i>B</i>_mix and that these flow directions are controlled by seepage flux, recharge and drainage depth

The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers. The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being done to find out the best techniques to describe complex fresh-brackish-saline groundwater dynamic systems. In this paper, we describe a methodology consisting of high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (EM) measurements used in a 3-D variable-density transient groundwater model for a coastal area in the Netherlands. We used the airborne EM measurements in combination with borehole-logging data, electrical conductivity cone penetration tests and groundwater samples to create a 3-D fresh-brackish-saline groundwater distribution of the study area. The EM measurements proved to be an improvement compared to older techniques and provided quality input for the model. With the help of the built 3-D variable-density groundwater model, we removed the remaining inaccuracies of the 3-D chloride field and predicted the effects of three climate scenarios on the groundwater and surface water system. Results showed significant changes in the groundwater system, and gave direction for future water policy. Future research should provide more insight in the improvement of data collection for fresh-brackish-saline groundwater systems as it is of high importance to further improve the quality of the model

A controlled artificial recharge and drainage (CARD) system was used to increase freshwater lenses below creek ridges to increase freshwater supply. Creek ridges are typical geomorphological features that lie up to 2 m higher than the surroundings in the reclaimed tidal flat landscape of the southwestern Netherlands. The 5-30-m thick freshwater lenses below the creek ridges are a vital source for irrigation, as the groundwater and surface waters are predominantly saline. However, freshwater supply from these lenses is commonly not sufficient to meet the irrigation demand, which leads to crop damage. The CARD system was tested in the field and the development of the freshwater lens was monitored during the period May 2013 to May 2014. Numerical models, which were used to investigate a long-term effect of the CARD system, predicted that below the center of the creek ridge, the 13-15-m thick freshwater lens increased 6-8 m within 10 years. The total volumetric increase of the freshwater lens was about 190,000 m 3 after 10 years, which was about 40 % of the total recharge (natural and artificial recharge). From this increased freshwater lens, up to three times more water can be extracted using horizontal wells, compared to the initial size of the freshwater lens. A higher water table in the CARD system leads to a thicker freshwater lens but a lower storage efficiency. A lower water table has the opposite effect.

The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers. The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being done to find out the best techniques to describe complex fresh-brackish-saline groundwater dynamic systems. In this article, we describe a methodology consisting of high-resolution airborne Electro Magnetic (EM) measurements used in a 3-D variable-density transient groundwater model for a coastal area in the Netherlands. We used the Airborne EM measurements in combination with borehole-logging data, Electrical Conductivity Cone Penetration Tests and groundwater samples to create a 3-D fresh-brackish-saline groundwater distribution of the study area. The EM measurements proved to be an improvement compared to older techniques and provided quality input for the model. With the help of the built 3-D variable-density groundwater model, we removed the remaining inaccuracies of the 3-D chloride field and predicted the effects of three climate scenarios on the groundwater and surface water system. Results showed significant changes in the groundwater system, and gave direction for future water policy. Future research should provide more insight in the improvement of data collection for fresh-brackish-saline groundwater systems as it is of high importance to further improve the quality of the model