ONCHOSIM is a computer program for modelling the transmission and control of the tropical parasitic disease onchocerciasis, or river blindness. It is developed in collaboration with the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP), and is used as a tool in the evaluation and planning of control operations. The model comprises a detailed description of the life history of the parasite Onchocerca volvulus and of its transmission from person to person by Simulium flies. The effects of different control strategies, based on larvicide application and chemotherapy (ivermectin), on the transmission and on the disease symptoms can be evaluated and predicted. In the program two simulation techniques are mixed. Stochastic microsimulation is used to calculate the life events of individual persons and inhabitant parasites, while the dynamics of the Simulium population and the development of the parasite in the flies are simulated deterministically. Output of ONCHOSIM conforms to the format in which data collected by the OCP are reported. This enables detailed checking of model specifications against empirical data. Output can also consist of summarizing key indices for the intensity of onchocerciasis infection, which is especially useful for comparing the effectivity of control strategies.

Ivermectin is an effective drug for the treatment of human onchocerciasis, a disease caused by the parasitic filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. When humans are treated, the microfilariae normally found in the skin are rapidly and very nearly completely eliminated. Nonetheless, after a delay, microfilariae gradually reappear in the skin. This study is concerned with the causes of this delay. Hypotheses are tested by comparing the results of model calculations with skin microfilaria counts collected from 114 patients during a trial of five annual treatments in the focus area of Asubende, Ghana. The results obtained strongly suggest that annual treatment with ivermectin causes an irreversible decline in microfilariae production of~30%/treatment. This result has important implications for public health strategies designed to eliminate onchocerciasis as a significant health hazard.The registration ofthe anthelminthic drug ivermectin (Mectizan; Merck, Rahway, NJ) in 1987 was a landmark in the control of human onchocerciasis or river blindness, a parasitic disease caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. Oral administration in a standard dose of 150-200 j.Lg/kg of body weight is followed by rapid elimination of microfilariae (Mf) from the skin and gradual reduction of ocular Mf levels [1]. Side effects are generally mild. This makes ivermectin a better therapeutic option than diethylcarbamazine, which is often accompanied by severe Mazotti reactions and ocular damage. Ivermectin also produces a longer suppression ofMfrepopulation of the skin [2,3]. To explain this difference, which was obvious in all studies done so far, the effects of ivermectin on adult parasites were studied.Adult female parasites in treated persons show an interruption of the normal embryogenesis, but after a single treatment, this appears to be reversible for most of the worms [4,5]. Excess worm mortality was not observed after a single treatment [1, 2, 6], although significant numbers of dead and mori-

Onchocerciasis, or river blindness, results from infection with Onchocerca volvulus. The parasite is endemic to West Africa, in both rain forest and savanna bioclimes. Several lines of evidence suggest that different strains of the parasite exist in the rain forest and savanna. Furthermore, epidemiologic evidence indicates that ocular onchocerciasis is most severe in savanna regions. This has led to the hypothesis that there is a strain association with ocular pathology. To test this hypothesis, parasites from villages in which severe and mild onchocerciasis were endemic were classified with two strain-specific DNA probes. A strong correlation (P less than .001) was found between disease severity and probe recognition, supporting the hypothesis that pathogenicity is strain related. The results suggest that pFS-1 and pSS-1BT may be used to predict the pathogenic potential of parasite populations throughout much of West Africa.

Following the registration of ivermectin (Mectizan) for human use in the treatment of onchocerciasis, in 1987 the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) begun a series of trials in order to determine the safety of the drug when used on a large scale and its potential for morbidity control. This paper reports the changes in skin microfilarial loads during the first 5 years of annual treatment in the holoendemic focus of Asubende in Ghana, which was the largest trial area and which also had the longest series of follow-up surveys. The general observed pattern was a marked reduction of microfilarial loads shortly after each treatment followed by a steady repopulation of the skin until a subsequent treatment round. The overall reduction of microfilarial loads observed between the base line survey and one year after the last treatment was 90% for the total population examined and over 93% for a cohort which received the drug at all 5 treatment rounds. In contrast, there was only a very gradual decrease in the prevalence of infection in the population after subsequent treatments. The study further emphasizes that even a single treatment with ivermectin has a significant medium-term impact on microfilarial loads. Microfilarial counts barely increased after 14-16 months of treatment and stabilized around 55% of pre-treatment counts 2-4 years after a single treatment.

From 1976 through 1989, weekly aerial spraying operations against blackflies were carried out along the rivers of a wide savanna area of West Africa (approximately 700,000 km(2)) where onchocerciasis was hyperendemic. The level of endemicity began to decrease significantly after 4 years of vector control and became very low in 1989. This situation has been maintained without any vector control activity or chemotherapy, and no incidence of any new cases has been detected. An ophthalmological study carried out in 2000 has confirmed these good results, showing only cicatricial ocular lesions in the examined population. These results led to the conclusion that 14 years of vector control may achieve long-term elimination of onchocerciasis, even in the absence of chemotherapy, provided that the treated areas are not subjected to any contamination by exogenous parasites carried in infected humans or flies.

SUMMARYA previous paper reported that the intake of Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mff) by different species of Simulium is essentially proportional to the parasite load in the skin of infected carriers. This paper examines the fate of the ingested mff in susceptible vectors to assess the relationship between parasite intake and infective larval output in blackfly species with and without well-developed cibarial armatures. Analysis is based on data from 3 onchocerciasis endemic areas: /S. sirbanum) and the Amazonian focus between South Venezuela and Northern Brazil (S. guianense and S. oyapockense s.L).The data, which include published and unedited information collected in the field, record experimental studies of parasite uptake by wild flies maintained in captivity until the completion of the extrinsic incubation period. The relationship between L3 output (measured as the mean number of successful larvae/fly or, as the proportion of flies with infective larvae) and average microfilarial intake, was strongly non-linear. This non-linearity was best represented by a sigmoid function in case of armed simuliids (S. ochraceum s.L, S. oyapockense s.L), or by a hyperbolic expression in that of unarmed flies (S. damnosum s.L, S. guianense). These results are compatible, respectively, with the patterns of 'initial facilitation' and 'limitation' described in culicid vectors of lymphatic filariases. A maximum mean number of 1-3 L3/fly was observed in all 4 vectors. It is concluded that O. volvulus larval development to the infective stage is regulated by density-dependent mechanisms acting at the early phase of microfilarial migration out of the blackfly's bloodmeal. Damage by the bucco-pharyngeal armature may also be density dependent. A hypothesis, based on this density dependence is forwarded to explain initial facilitation, so far only recorded in vectors with well-developed cibarial teeth. Our results provide quantitative support for the conjecture that chemotherapy alone is likely to have a greater impact on reducing onchocerciasis transmission in endemic areas where the main vector has a toothed fore-gut than in foci where the vectors have unarmed cibaria.

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We demonstrate, in a comprehensive data set and in both sexes, a direct relationship between microfilarial load and the incidence of blindness.