Abstract. The influence of temperature on the likelihood of Culicoides sonorensis Wirth & Jones (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmitting African horse sickness virus (AHSV) serotypes 4 and 6, bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes 10 and 16 and epizootic haemorrhagic disease of deer virus (EHDV) serotype 1 was investigated. Extrinsic incubation periods (EIP), vector competence and vector survival were determined at 15, 20, 25 and 30 C. The effect of humidity on vector survival was also investigated by maintaining adult C. sonorensis at 40, 75 and 85% r.h. at each temperature. Higher temperatures were associated with a shorter EIP for all virus serotypes except AHSV6, to which C. sonorensis was orally refractory, increased vector competence for AHSV4 and EHDV1, but not for BTV10 or BTV16, and a reduction in vector survival. Humidity interacted with temperature in influencing vector survival, such that at low temperatures, lower humidity (40 and 75% r.h.) was detrimental for survival (up to 18% reduction in longevity), whereas at high temperatures, high humidity (85% r.h.) was detrimental (up to 36% reduction in longevity). In general, the transmission potential of C. sonorensis for AHSV4, EHDV1, BTV10 and BTV16 was greater at higher temperatures, because although vector survival was reduced, this was more than compensated for by the accompanying decrease in duration of the EIP.
Bluetongue is an infectious disease of ruminants caused by a virus transmitted by biting midges, one species of which, Culicoides imicola, is the major vector in the Old World. Following an epizootic of African horse sickness,a related disease, in Iberia and Morocco between 1987 and 1991, C imicola was trapped for two years at 44 sites in the affected region and models were developed for predicting the abundance of C imicola at these sites. Discriminant analysis was applied to identify the best model of three levels of abundance from 40 Fourier-processed remotely sensed variables and a digital elevation model. The best model correctly predicted the abundance level at 41 of the 44 sites. The single most important variable was the phase of the annual cycle of the normalised difference vegetation index. The model was used to predict the abundances of C imicola elsewhere around the Mediterranean and predicted high levels of abundance in many areas recently affected by bluetongue, including the Balearics, Sardinia, Sicily, eastern Greece, western Turkey, Tunisia and northern Algeria. The model suggests that eastern Spain, the island of Ibiza, the provinces of Lazio and Puglia in Italy, the Peloponnese and parts of northern Algeria and Libya may be at risk of bluetongue in 2001.
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