An adequate supply of qualified research and development (R&D) personnel is an important precondition for a government policy that aims for a strongly knowledge‐intensive economic growth. As in many other OECD countries, there is great concern in The Netherlands about meeting this crucial condition in the next decades. This article tries to show to what extent this current concern is justified. For that purpose, forecasts of future supply and demand for research manpower in the science and engineering fields (including agriculture and health) have been produced, extending to the year 2010. Sensitivity analyses show that the fore‐casts are not very sensitive to alternative assumptions on economic growth, investments, replacement demand and labour supply. From a methodological point of view the forecasting approach differs from the more traditional manpower forecasting. Firstly, the demand for R&D personnel is split up into an increase in total employment for R&D manpower (expansion demand) on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the need for replacements for researchers who retire, die or switch to other occupations (replacement demand). Expansion and replacement demand are considered in three sectors of R&D work: universities, research institutes and private enterprises. Expansion demand and replacement demand together determine the job openings for newcomers. These job openings are confronted with the supply of new R&D manpower, which is largely determined by the output of the educational system. The confrontation of demand and supply forecasts shows that, in general, severe shortages of R & D manpower will result if there are not adequate manpower policy adjustment. The article closes with a discussion of the policy implications of the expected disequilibria in the market for R & D manpower.

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In most countries, the systems of educational classification are based on administrative criteria. For analyses of the labour-market position of educational categories, however, a classification that demarcates an individual's competencies obtained by the courses attended is a better alternative. In the present paper, we will analyse the substitution processes in the labour market in order to develop an educational classification that is based on the observed possibilities of workers with different educational backgrounds to enter similar occupations. As an additional criterion, we use the recognizability of the groups distinguished. In addition, we incorporate the criterion of statistical reliability. This results in an educational classification with 113 distinct categories.

In manpower forecasting labour market developments are analysed in terms of shortages and surpluses. Such an approach seems to neglect the flexibility of the labour market, present in most economic labour market models. It is shown that an appropriate interpretation of gaps in manpower forecasting does not exclude a full functioning of the market clearing mechanism.

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