According to the government approved scheme for siting electric power plants to 2030 the first two power-generating units at the Bashkir NPP are to be commissioned in 2024 and 2027 and at the Tatar NPP in 2025 and 2028. However, the decisions concerning the siting region and the commissioning period are not final and can be made more precise at the pre-design stage of the investment projects, where the siting will be validated, the commissioning period will be made more precise and the number, type and technical and economic performance indicators of the power units will be determined.The first, most important problem at the pre-design stage of an investment project is the preparation of the investment plan, because it is the basis for determining the desirability of investing in the construction of NPP. To confirm the possibility and desirability of building a new NPP when developing an investment plan the first step is a systems energy validation of the desirability of building the plant, including an analysis of its role and place in the energy system (often in neighboring energy systems) and a determination of the prospective markets for the electricity produced under varying external conditions (electricity demand, fuel price, electricity price, capacity and others). In addition, the preferability of the NPP over other sources of electricity is determined. This energy validation is the basis for concluding that the NPP is needed and forming a construction program.Although a systems energy validation of the siting of each new NPP has its own characteristic aspects, irrespective of it a preliminary validation of the siting within the framework of an investment plan must include standard stages [1]. The methodological approach described was used in 2008-2011 during the preparation of the validating materials for investment plans for NPPs to be commissioned to 2030 [2]. The Tatar and Bashkir NPPs were among the plants studied in the course of the investment planning.The study showed that from the systems standpoint further analysis of investment projects for constructing the first phase of the Tatar and Bashkir NPPs is needed: 1) for the assumed electricity demand, power dynamics and commissioning to 2030, both NPPs will be needed; the main market for electricity from the Tatar NPP is directly in the energy system at its location; the market for electricity from the Bashkir NPP is wider and will also include consumers from the Orenburg energy system;2) the analysis showed that the electricity produced at both NPPs is competitive with the alternative base sources utilizing fossil fuels with discount rates 5 and 8%; at 10% with the maximum construction cost the NPP becomes less economically efficient than a steam-gas power plant;3) analysis of the commercial efficiency of investment projects also confirmed their desirability: even with a discount rate of 10% the pure discounted profit will exceed 500·10 9 rubles in future (running) prices, and the internal rate of return will exceed 14%; and
Structure of the fuel-energy balance and the market prices of energy sources. Oil dominates the world's fuelenergy balance (40%), followed by coal (30%) and gas (20%); the rest is hydroelectric and nuclear. As a result, the world price of energy is based on the price of oil, the dominant source, and significant price changes for petroleum affect the price level for other sources, such as gas (with a year's delay, as shown by analysis of the world market in the 1970s and 1980s). Gas dominates the Russian energy balance (62% in 1996) followed by oil and coal (close to 30% and 10%, respectively). Therefore, gas should dictate ~,e price of other organic energy sources in Russia's internal market.From international practice, we know that the price for gas is higher than for coal (by 30% on the average) because of its consumer qualities. However, in the transition to a market economy, the Russian government regulates the product prices of fuel and energy enterprises like the presidents of natural monopolies, with different degrees of regulation for different sources. Today coal prices are free and are at the market level for poor-quality domestic coal, so that restructuring unprofitable coal production requires large subsidies and financial support. Government regulation makes gas prices artificially low; now $50 per ton of standard fuel, which is lower than for domestic coal and 1.5 to 2 times less than prices abroad.Also, price predictions for Russian gas should consider the necessity of developing new hard-to-reach deposits in the Far North, not only to accommodate planned growth, but also to support production at today's levels. The combination of these factors, and also the tightening of ecological standards for producing and transporting gas, lead to the conclusion that Russian gas prices will rise substantially in the near future.The world history of energy development shows a continuous transition to fuel with a higher energy content: wood, coal, oil, gas, and nuclear, and this list will continue. Here an energy source which has "exhausted" its dominant role does not disappear completely, but gradually occupies a specific --and as a rule a more civilized --niche in the energy balance and industry. Retrospective analysis shows that the future is high technology, which includes nuclear power.Energy conservation, ecology, and competitiveness. As paradoxical as it sounds, nuclear power satisfies all the requirements of an energy-conservative technology: minimum energy requirements for its own production (less than 4% for the nuclear fuel cycle), as well as the fundamental ability to use its own "wastes, ~ i.e., spent fuel can be used as a secondary source to regenerate fuel. If we introduce the concept of fuel-cycle efficiency, then nuclear power in Russia is no worse than gas, in spite of the relatively high efficiency of gas-fueled thermal power plants. The problem is the large energy costs for pumping gas from its main deposits beyond the Urals to industrial regions in European areas: -20% of all organic energy ...
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