How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

A loading dose followed by once-daily dosing was shown to result in SDL in the safe and therapeutic range in all term neonates in this study. In low birth weight neonates, this regimen resulted in peak and trough SDL throughout therapy that were similar to those observed in the control group. Delaying the initiation of maintenance once-daily dosing until 36 to 48 hours after the loading dose would be expected to result in a higher incidence of initial trough SDL in target range for very low birth weight neonates.