Wheat and barley are critical food and feed crops around the world. Wheat is grown on more land area worldwide than any other crop. In the United States, production of wheat and barley contributes to domestic food and feed use, and contributes to the export market and balance of trade. Fifteen years ago, Plant Disease published a feature article titled “Scab of wheat and barley: A re-emerging disease of devastating impact”. That article described the series of severe Fusarium head blight (FHB) epidemics that occurred in the United States and Canada, primarily from 1991 through 1996, with emphasis on the unparalleled economic and sociological impacts caused by the 1993 FHB epidemic in spring grains in the Northern Great Plains region. Earlier publications had dealt with the scope and damage caused by this disease in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. Reviews published after 1997 further described this disease and its impact on North American grain production in the 1990s. This article reviews the disease and documents the information on U.S. FHB epidemics since 1997. The primary goal of this article is to summarize a sustained, coordinated, and collaborative research program that was put in place shortly after the 1993 epidemic, a program intended to quickly lead to improved management strategies and outreach implementation. This program serves as a model to deal with other emerging plant disease threats.

Logistic regression models for wheat Fusarium head blight were developed using information collected at 50 location-years, including four states, representing three different U.S. wheat-production regions. Non-parametric correlation analysis and stepwise logistic regression analysis identified combinations of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall or durations of specified weather conditions, for 7 days prior to anthesis, and 10 days beginning at crop anthesis, as potential predictor variables. Prediction accuracy of developed logistic regression models ranged from 62 to 85%. Models suitable for application as a disease warning system were identified based on model prediction accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and availability of weather variables at crop anthesis. Four of the identified models correctly classified 84% of the 50 location-years. A fifth model that used only pre-anthesis weather conditions correctly classified 70% of the location-years. The most useful predictor variables were the duration (h) of precipitation 7 days prior to anthesis, duration (h) that temperature was between 15 and 30 degrees C 7 days prior to anthesis, and the duration (h) that temperature was between 15 and 30 degrees C and relative humidity was greater than or equal to 90%. When model performance was evaluated with an independent validation set (n = 9), prediction accuracy was only 6% lower than the accuracy for the original data sets. These results indicate that narrow time periods around crop anthesis can be used to predict Fusarium head blight epidemics.

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Fusarium head blight (FHB) or scab, incited by Fusarium graminearum, can cause significant economic losses in small grain production. Five field experiments were conducted from 2007 to 2009 to determine the effects on FHB and the associated mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) of integrating winter wheat cultivar resistance and fungicide application. Other variables measured were yield and the percentage of Fusarium-damaged kernels (FDK). The fungicides prothioconazole + tebuconazole (formulated as Prosaro 421 SC) were applied at the rate of 0.475 liters/ha, or not applied, to three cultivars (experiments 1 to 3) or six cultivars (experiments 4 and 5) differing in their levels of resistance to FHB and DON accumulation. The effect of cultivar on FHB index was highly significant (P < 0.0001) in all five experiments. Under the highest FHB intensity and no fungicide application, the moderately resistant cultivars Harry, Heyne, Roane, and Truman had less severe FHB than the susceptible cultivars 2137, Jagalene, Overley, and Tomahawk (indices of 30 to 46% and 78 to 99%, respectively). Percent fungicide efficacy in reducing index and DON was greater in moderately resistant than in susceptible cultivars. Yield was negatively correlated with index, with FDK, and with DON, whereas index was positively correlated with FDK and with DON, and FDK and DON were positively correlated. Correlation between index and DON, index and FDK, and FDK and DON was stronger in susceptible than in moderately resistant cultivars, whereas the negative correlation between yield and FDK and yield and DON was stronger in moderately resistant than in susceptible cultivars. Overall, the strongest correlation was between index and DON (0.74 ≤ R ≤ 0.88, P ≤ 0.05). The results from this study indicate that fungicide efficacy in reducing FHB and DON was greater in moderately resistant cultivars than in susceptible ones. This shows that integrating cultivar resistance with fungicide application can be an effective strategy for management of FHB and DON in winter wheat.

Plant disease cycles represent pathogen biology as a series of interconnected stages of development including dormancy, reproduction, dispersal, and pathogenesis. The progression through these stages is determined by a continuous sequence of interactions among host, pathogen, and environment. The stages of the disease cycle form the basis of many plant disease prediction models. The relationship of temperature and moisture to disease development and pathogen reproduction serve as the basis for most contemporary plant disease prediction systems. Pathogen dormancy and inoculum dispersal are considered less frequently. We found extensive research efforts evaluating the performance of prediction models as part of operation disease management systems. These efforts appear to be greater than just a few decades ago, and include novel applications of Bayesian decision theory. Advances in information technology have stimulated innovations in model application. This trend must accelerate to provide the disease management strategies needed to maintain global food supplies.