Tidal wetlands produce long-term soil organic carbon (C) stocks. Thus for carbon accounting purposes, we need accurate and precise information on the magnitude and spatial distribution of those stocks. We assembled and analyzed an unprecedented soil core dataset, and tested three strategies for mapping carbon stocks: applying the average value from the synthesis to mapped tidal wetlands, applying models fit using empirical data and applied using soil, vegetation and salinity maps, and relying on independently generated soil carbon maps. Soil carbon stocks were far lower on average and varied less spatially and with depth than stocks calculated from available soils maps. Further, variation in carbon density was not well-predicted based on climate, salinity, vegetation, or soil classes. Instead, the assembled dataset showed that carbon density across the conterminous united states (CONUS) was normally distributed, with a predictable range of observations. We identified the simplest strategy, applying mean carbon density (27.0 kg C m−3), as the best performing strategy, and conservatively estimated that the top meter of CONUS tidal wetland soil contains 0.72 petagrams C. This strategy could provide standardization in CONUS tidal carbon accounting until such a time as modeling and mapping advancements can quantitatively improve accuracy and precision.

Tidal salt marsh is a key defense against, yet is especially vulnerable to, the effects of accelerated sea level rise. To determine whether salt marshes in southern New England will be stable given increasing inundation over the coming decades, we examined current loss patterns, inundation-productivity feedbacks, and sustaining processes. A multi-decadal analysis of salt marsh aerial extent using historic imagery and maps revealed that salt marsh vegetation loss is both widespread, and accelerating, with vegetation loss rates over the past four decades summing to 17.3%. Seaward retreat of the marsh edge, widening and headward expansion of tidal channel networks, loss of marsh islands, and the development and enlargement of interior depressions found on the marsh platform contributed to vegetation loss. Inundation due to sea level rise is strongly suggested as a primary driver: vegetation loss rates were significantly negatively correlated with marsh elevation (=0.96; =0.0038), with marshes situated below mean high water (MHW) experiencing greater declines than marshes sitting well above MHW. Growth experiments with, the Atlantic salt marsh ecosystem dominant, across a range of elevations and inundation regimes further established that greater inundation decreases belowground biomass production of and thus negatively impacts organic matter accumulation. These results suggest that southern New England salt marshes are already experiencing deterioration and fragmentation in response to sea level rise, and may not be stable as tidal flooding increases in the future.

From 2003 through 2005, tidal marsh plant species diversity and abundance on historically surveyed vegetation transects along the salinity gradient of the San Francisco Estuary were investigated to establish empirical relationships between plant distributions and environmental conditions, and furthermore to examine and predict past and future plant distribution changes. This study suggests that for most species, salinity is the primary control on plant distribution. Thus, ongoing changes in estuarine conditions (increasing sea level and salinity) are resulting in a complex mix of plant distribution changes. On the low marsh, where sediment salinity is similar to that of ambient water, halophytic species are replacing salt-intolerant taxa. However, on marsh plains, where increased tidal flooding is moderating high salinity (concentrated by evaporation), halophytic ''high marsh'' species are being replaced by salt-intolerant ''low marsh'' taxa. Thus, future changes in plant distributions will hinge on whether marsh sediment accumulation keeps pace with sea level rise.