Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), a technique that records blood glucose at a regular intervals. While CGM is more commonly used in type 1 diabetes, it is increasingly becoming attractive for treating type 2 diabetic patients. The time series obtained from a CGM provides a rich picture of the glycemic state of the subjects and may help have tighter control on blood sugar by revealing patterns in their physiological responses to food. However, despite its importance, the biophysical understanding of CGM is far from complete. CGM data series is complex not only because it depends on the composition of the food but also varies with individual physiology. All of these make a full modeling of CGM data a difficult task. Here we propose a simple model to explain CGM data in type 2 diabetes. The model combines a relatively simple glucose-insulin dynamics with a two-compartment food model. Using CGM data of a healthy and a diabetic individual we show that this model can capture liquid meals well. The model also allows us to estimate the parameters in a relatively straightforward manner. This opens up the possibility of personalizing the CGM data. The model also predicts insulin time series from the model, and the rate of appearance of glucose due to food. Our methodology thus paves the way for novel analyses of CGM which have not been possible before.

Objective The aim of the present study was to identify the factors associated with non-attendance of immediate postpartum glucose test using a machine learning algorithm following gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) pregnancy. Method A retrospective cohort study of all GDM women (n = 607) for postpartum glucose test due between January 2016 and December 2019 at the George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust, UK. Results Sixty-five percent of women attended postpartum glucose test. Type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 2.8% and 21.6% had persistent dysglycaemia at 6–13 weeks post-delivery. Those who did not attend postpartum glucose test seem to be younger, multiparous, obese, and continued to smoke during pregnancy. They also had higher fasting glucose at antenatal oral glucose tolerance test. Our machine learning algorithm predicted postpartum glucose non-attendance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72. The model could achieve a sensitivity of 70% with 66% specificity at a risk score threshold of 0.46. A total of 233 (38.4%) women attended subsequent glucose test at least once within the first two years of delivery and 24% had dysglycaemia. Compared to women who attended postpartum glucose test, those who did not attend had higher conversion rate to type 2 diabetes (2.5% vs 11.4%; p = 0.005). Conclusion Postpartum screening following GDM is still poor. Women who did not attend postpartum screening appear to have higher metabolic risk and higher conversion to type 2 diabetes by two years post-delivery. Machine learning model can predict women who are unlikely to attend postpartum glucose test using simple antenatal factors. Enhanced, personalised education of these women may improve postpartum glucose screening.

Background: Early onset of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease are common complications for women diagnosed with gestational diabetes. About half of the women with gestational diabetes develop postpartum prediabetes within 10 years of the index pregnancy. These women also have double the risk of developing cardiovascular disease than women without a history of gestational diabetes. Currently, there is no accurate way of knowing which women with gestational diabetes are likely to develop postpartum prediabetes. This study aims to predict the risk of postpartum prediabetes in women diagnosed with gestational diabetes. Methods: We build a sparse logistic regression-based machine learning model to learn key variables significant for the prediction of postpartum prediabetes, from antenatal data with maternal anthropometric and biochemical variables as well as neonatal characteristics of 607 UK women diagnosed with gestational diabetes. We evaluate the performance of the proposed model in addition to other more advanced machine learning methods using established metrics such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and specificity for pre-determined values of sensitivity. We use K-L divergence and information graphs to evaluate and compare different thresholds of classification for targeted screening options in resource-constrained settings. We also perform a decision curve analysis to study the net standardized benefit of our model compared to the universal screening approach. Results: Strikingly, our sparse logistic regression approach selects only two variables as relevant but gives an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72, outperforming all other methods. It can identify postpartum prediabetes in women with gestational diabetes using the Rule-in test with 92\% specificity at an optimal probability threshold of 0.381 and using the Rule-out test with 92\% sensitivity at an optimal probability threshold of 0.140. Conclusion: We propose a simple logistic regression model, which needs only the antenatal fasting glucose at OGTT and HbA1c soon after the diagnosis of GDM, to predict, with remarkable accuracy, the probability of postpartum prediabetes in women with gestational diabetes. We envision this to be a practical solution, which coupled with a targeted follow-up of high-risk women, could yield better cardiometabolic outcomes in women with a history of GDM.

Systematic Review of <14 weeks risk score prediction models using maternal characteristics with and without biomarkers for the prediction of GDM 2GDM is associated with adverse maternal and fetal complications. By the time GDM is diagnosed, continuous exposure to the hyperglycaemic intrauterine environment can have adverse effects on the fetus. Hence, early pregnancy prediction of GDM is important.The aim was to evaluate whether <14 weeks risk score prediction models including maternal characteristics with and without biomarkers can accurately predict GDM in early pregnancy.Cohort or observational studies involving pregnant women without prior diagnosis of diabetes were reviewed.Databases, Cochrane systematic reviews, grey literature, and reference lists were searched for relevant studies till July 2021. Two authors extracted data and assessed quality independently. The primary outcome of the review was to assess the predictive performance of the risk prediction models with maternal characteristics with and without biomarkers <14 weeks in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC), for different populations. In view of the high heterogeneity between studies, pooled analyses of the data were not done.Thirty-one out of 111 articles (Original search N=4500) were included. 18 studies reported results for prediction models with only maternal characteristics. 27 studies used regression-based techniques for prediction. Sample size in these studies ranged from 43 to 1,160,933. The studies were from USA,

No abstract