Across the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected economically disadvantaged groups. This differential impact has numerous possible explanations, each with significantly different policy implications. We examine, for the first time in a low- or middle-income country, which mechanisms best explain the disproportionate impact of the virus on the poor. Combining an epidemiological model with rich data from Bogotá, Colombia, we show that total infections and inequalities in infections are largely driven by inequalities in the ability to work remotely and in within-home secondary attack rates. Inequalities in isolation behavior are less important but non-negligible, while access to testing and contract-tracing plays practically no role because it is too slow to contain the virus. Interventions that mitigate transmission are often more effective when targeted on socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.
Summary
Background
Understanding factors impacting deaths from COVID‐19 is of the highest priority. Seasonal variation in environmental meteorological conditions affects the incidence of many infectious diseases and may also affect COVID‐19. Ultraviolet (UV) A (UVA) radiation induces release of cutaneous photolabile nitric oxide (NO) impacting the cardiovascular system and metabolic syndrome, both COVID‐19 risk factors. NO also inhibits the replication of SARS‐CoV2.
Objectives
To investigate the relationship between ambient UVA radiation and COVID‐19 deaths.
Methods
COVID‐19 deaths at the county level, across the USA, were modelled in a zero‐inflated negative‐binomial model with a random effect for states adjusting for confounding by demographic, socioeconomic and long‐term environmental variables. Only those areas where UVB was too low to induce significant cutaneous vitamin D3 synthesis were modelled. We used satellite‐derived estimates of UVA, UVB and temperature and relative humidity. Replication models were undertaken using comparable data for England and Italy.
Results
The mortality rate ratio (MRR) in the USA falls by 29% [95% confidence interval (CI) 40% to 15%) per 100 kJ m–2 increase in mean daily UVA. We replicated this in independent studies in Italy and England and estimate a pooled decline in MRR of 32% (95% CI 48% to 12%) per 100 kJ m–2 across the three studies.
Conclusions
Our analysis suggests that higher ambient UVA exposure is associated with lower COVID‐19‐specific mortality. Further research on the mechanism may indicate novel treatments. Optimized UVA exposure may have population health benefits.
Latin America has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic but estimations of rates of infections are very limited and lack the level of detail required to guide policy decisions. We implemented a COVID-19 sentinel surveillance study with 59,770 RT-PCR tests on mostly asymptomatic individuals and combine this data with administrative records on all detected cases to capture the spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogota from June 2020 to early March 2021. We describe various features of the pandemic that appear to be specific to a middle income countries. We find that, by March 2021, slightly more than half of the population in Bogota has been infected, despite only a small fraction of this population being detected. The initial buildup of immunity contributed to the containment of the pandemic in the first and second waves. We also show that the share of the population infected by March 2021 varies widely by occupation, socio-economic stratum, and location. This, in turn, has affected the dynamics of the spread with different groups being infected in the two waves.
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